Call it the Super Bowl loser’s curse or just bad football; either way, the Chiefs are the eighth runner-up to stumble out of the gate at 0-2. And they are now staring at a cold truth in the face. They dropped back-to-back games, putting their Super Bowl hopes on the line before Week 3. The last time they stumbled so hard was way back in 2014, Andy Reid’s second season and three years before Patrick Mahomes stepped into the NFL spotlight.

Plenty of teams have recovered from rough starts, but very few have gone from 0-2 all the way to lifting the Lombardi Trophy. The most famous exceptions are the 1993 Cowboys, 2001 Patriots, and 2007 Giants. The Chiefs’ challenge is obvious: unless they solve a handful of issues quickly, their season could slip toward an early exit.

Their Week 3 clash with the Giants will be a telling pivot point.

The designed run game is a mess

Through two weeks, the Chiefs’ run game has underperformed. Analytic sources have them ranked 24th in EPA per attempt on designed runs. Mahomes has become the team’s leading ground gainer with 123 rushing yards on 13 carries, more than any running back so far.

Hunt and Pacheco have combined for 94 yards on 28 carries. Their longest rush has been no more than 11 yards. Analysts note there’s been no explosive threat in those carries. Without a credible running game, defenses are free to key in on Mahomes. The offensive line has been flagged for struggling to create clean, consistent lanes. A problem that risks making Kansas City increasingly one-dimensional.

Not many explosive plays in the passing game

Speaking of the passing game, the Chiefs are unusually uninspiring. Patrick Mahomes is throwing more deep balls than he has in years. Still, he completed just 3 of 8 for 136 yards. Some were real toss-ups, but he flat-out missed an open Tyquan Thornton on a double move in the fourth quarter. That should have been a 75-yard touchdown.

The offense feels more routine, more cautious. Without big plays, defenses can play tighter coverage. Historically, the Chiefs have relied on vertical threats like Tyreek Hill and a dominant Travis Kelce to force defenses into compromising coverages. Now, the passing offense is stuck without game-changing playmakers. Explosive plays are the backbone of any elite passing attack, and with a depleted deep threat group and limited yards after catch, the Chiefs’ arsenal feels flat.

They are not breaking the league on third down

Third downs are make-or-break moments. And Chiefs are known for making the count. Between 2022 and 2024, they converted nearly 47% of third downs, second only to the Bills. They were top 10 in EPA on first and second downs and led the league on third downs. This year, that’s changed.

Now, Kansas City is 26th in third-down conversion percentage at just 34.6%. The difference isn’t much, but it shows how much the team relied on third downs to keep moving. It hints at how this inability stunts their capability to sustain drives. Without converting when it matters, the Chiefs’ offense dead ends at crucial moments, pushing the defense back on the field too often, increasing fatigue and risk.

They are not creating mismatches with their personal groupings

The Chiefs are no longer generating the same mismatches through their personnel groupings as they did in past years. After trading away Hill, Kansas City leaned heavily on 12 and 13 personnel sets, stacking the field with multiple tight ends like Travis Kelce and Noah Gray. That strategy historically forced opposing defenses into tough choices: either stick with base personnel and four defensive backs or try to cover Kelce’s size and physicality with slower linebackers or undersized defensive backs.

For years, that mismatch was a key advantage. But now, at age 35 and with defenses adjusting, the Chiefs’ success rate in those sets has dropped to 35% this season from 50% last year, indicating diminishing returns in this approach.

Giants hold the edge historically

When teams meet, history matters. And the Giants have held an edge over the Chiefs in past encounters, statistically speaking. Across 15 total matchups, the Giants have won 11 times, including a longest winning streak of four games stretching from 1998 to 2009. Despite the Chiefs’ recent dominance of the NFL and their three consecutive Super Bowl appearances, their balanced scoring average of 18.3 points per game against the Giants.

Patrick Mahomes has only faced the Giants once, securing a win, and he looks poised to carry the Chiefs in this key game. Still, the historical edge and scoring trends underscore an uphill climb for Kansas City to flip the series record and salvage their 0-2 start. Can their defense step up and overcome the glaring shortcomings of the offense before the season slips out of reach?

Adding to the challenge, the Giants are playing with an aggressive, physical style that has defined their recent identity under a tough defensive mindset. Despite a 0-3 start this season, their hard-nosed approach on both sides of the ball has made them a difficult opponent, especially at home.