Seven years ago, in 2018, Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross made a bold promise: to turn the franchise into a serious Super Bowl contender. “I think that we’re going in a direction of building something and looking to build an organization that can be sustainable in winning. Not just signing a few free agents that are older with a few draft choices and think you’re going to be a contender.”

This vision set high expectations, but as we enter the 2025 season, Miami still hasn’t broken through. The centerpiece of this stalled promise is quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, whose impressive stats conceal deeper issues that have hobbled the team’s rise. What keeps the Dolphins from fulfilling Ross’ dream? The answers lie in Tua’s struggles, injuries, and the fact that the partnership with coach Mike McDaniel has yet to ignite Miami’s potential. 

Back in 2020, Tua Tagovailoa arrived with great hope as Miami’s long-term solution at quarterback. But his journey has been marked by interruptions. Tua’s repeated concussions have become a waving red flag. But even with this history of injuries, there is another glaring problem for Tua besides durability. The Dolphins don’t do well against championship teams.

As The Athletic’s Jacob Robinson noted recently, when going up against elite defenses, the Tua and McDaniel pairing falters. “Since 2023, the Dolphins ar10e 2- against teams that finished with a record above .500 (Tagovailoa started 11 of those 12 games, per TruMedia), while Miami’s ability to beat up on weaker opponents (17-5) against sub .500 teams in that timeframe) clouds their stats.” Robinson makes the case that against teams like the Ravens, the Bills and the Chiefs, Tua’s flair falters, and coach McDaniel fails to come up with solutions.

Since McDaniel became the HC, the Dolphins have consistently ranked high in yards and points per game. But as Robinson adds, against the elite teams, their scored points get lower, and allowed points rise up. Would this year be any different? McDaniel seems to have a plan.

For Mike McDaniel, the change starts with himself, and then drives down the core of his roster. He promises to focus on the core group that carried the team through a 6-2 record in the second half of 2024. As the coach noted in an interview recently, “One of the most difficult things out of all is flipping 2-6 to 6-2. On the back of the core foundation of our team, I think those players had succeeded with drag, and realistically, we just got to the point where the players were ready to hear the coaching and the connectivity with the guys who have been here. As we’ve evolved as players and coaches together, it was easy to identify what people needed from me.” This drive has also translated well into the locker room. But the trick will be to sustain it against elite defenses.

Tyreek Hill, Tua’s most explosive target on the field, had noted that he finally understands the schemes and playbooks. Tua’s on-field rapport with Hill is also on the mend after last season’s public fallout. The QB has also solidified himself as a more vocal leader for the team. But aside from that, the biggest headache for Miami remains the franchise quarterback’s durability.

Concussion control: Can Tua Tagovailoa avoid another head injury?

Since entering the league, Tua Tagovailoa has suffered several serious injuries that have kept him out of key games. A rib injury near the start of the 2021 season kept him out until Week 6. In 2022, HC Mike McDaniel took over the reins, but the injury problems persisted. Tua suffered a concussion in Week 4 and would not return until Week 7. He then again suffered a concussion on Christmas day and that was it. Fast forward to 2024, he suffered another concussion on September 12 and came back in Week 8. This has become a recurring pattern that even doctors are calling out.

Dr. Julian Bailes had consulted the Dolphins on Tua’s concussion back in 2022. When the same injury happened last year, even the doc had noted that something needed to change. “Why do you think we’re back here in the same situation two years later? It’s the style of play for him. He stuck his head in there and he’s not afraid and he’s a great athlete and he wanted to get a few more yards. He stuck his head in there without thinking in that split second. So, that’s a big part of why we’re back again. Same guy, same susceptibility and same style of play.” To avoid a repeat of this, McDaniel even rested Tua through most of the preseason for long-term stability. But as Tua himself made a comment after his preseason debut recently, that problem persists.

In the Dolphins’ 14-6 preseason win over the Jaguars, Tua threw for 76 yards and a touchdown. But he also got sacked twice. In a presser later on, he admitted that he missed receiving hits. “It felt good to get hit again. Maybe that’s not what people want to hear. But in my head, it feels alright to have gotten touched.” So that ‘make big play first, think later’ streak still runs strong for Tagovailoa, even if it means he has to take a few hits. If this leads to another concussion down the ‘25 season, that could derail McDaniel’s vision to rely on the core team. Will Stephen Ross’ promise finally be fulfilled this season? The coming months will write the next chapter for a franchise still haunted by what could have been, and hopeful for what might still be.