The NFL is ever-evolving. From new teams on the block to veterans entering retirement, teams that have dominated over the years may fall out of relevance. This could be due to losing star players, having to pay young stars, or division rivals getting better.

Every team’s Super Bowl window is small. You have a realistic two to three-year gap where you could successfully win the big game. Some teams are the outliers, such as the Kansas City Chiefs, but this remains true for the rest of the NFL. So what teams have to win it in 2026 before their window closes?

Disclaimer for this list: Teams such as the Philadelphia Eagles or the Chiefs were excluded from this list, as they have won Super Bowls in recent history, and their pressure to win is less than that of a team that hasn’t achieved that feat.

5. Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are always under pressure. Winning or losing, they’re the talk of the media every season.

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Even after finishing the 2025 season with a 7-9-1 record, there’s a lot of pressure for Dallas to win in 2026. The Eagles have taken a noticeable step back from their Super Bowl run, and now is the time for the Cowboys to step up in the NFC East.

In one season under Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas had one of the best offenses. But it’s their last-placed defense that has plagued their chances of winning. The Cowboys’ defense struggles are only magnified by their decision to move on from Micah Parsons. While receiving a good return in draft capital, the Parsons trade was one of the biggest in recent NFL history.

George Pickens and Javonte Williams are entering free agency, and Dallas has a cap problem with -$30 million in available cap space. Pickens is due for a big contract, and the Cowboys are hinting at using the franchise tag. To clear up space, Dallas will have to make decisions on key veterans with big cap hits in the offseason.

Dak Prescott‘s best seasons are going to waste. The veteran quarterback threw for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2025, yet the team could only muster up seven wins. With key players likely to depart and an aging, expensive roster, 2026 may be the Cowboys’ last chance to compete for the division.

4. Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions have one of the best rosters in the NFL. Highlighted by superstars such as Jahmyr Gibbs and Aidan Hutchinson, there’s plenty of young talent flooding the Lions’ roster. But with a variety of young talent, they’ll soon be forced to allocate much of the cap space to new contracts for each of their stars.

Entering the offseason, Detroit will open contract extension talks with Gibbs, and tight end Sam LaPorta is due for a payday; otherwise, he’ll hit free agency after the 2026 season. The Lions have already agreed to big contracts with Hutchinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Penei Sewell. Not to mention Jared Goff earning $53 million a year.

With so much money allocated to their stars, it’s highly unlikely Detroit will be able to keep the band together for long. While none of their players are aging out, their lack of cap freedom is a concern.

Detroit has been one of the best teams in the NFL since 2023, but a lackluster 9-8 record in 2025 is worrying. The Lions lost both their coordinators to head coach openings, and there was a notable fall-off in play-calling. If they can’t find the right coaches for 2026, Detroit’s window may be closing for good.

3. Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens‘ window is rapidly closing. Lamar Jackson is a 2x MVP winner, but has only made an appearance in the AFC Championship game once in his career.

The decision to go separate ways with long-time head coach John Harbaugh has only emphasized the Ravens’ concern with finding wins soon. It was clear Harbaugh had trouble getting over the hump, and Baltimore has decided to move on.

But now the Ravens are left with an old and expensive roster under a first-year head coach. They are also set to lose key free agents in 2026, with Tyler Linderbaum and Kyle Van Noy each set to hit free agency. Baltimore would like to agree to new contracts with their free agents, but they don’t have a lot of cap space to work with.

The Ravens are coming off a disappointing year, finishing 9-8 and missing the playoffs. The Pittsburgh Steelers took the division in 2025 as Baltimore and the Cincinnati Bengals dealt with injuries. With the Steelers now parting ways with Mike Tomlin and unsure who their quarterback will be, the Ravens need to take advantage in 2026 and win the AFC North.

2. San Francisco 49ers

No one exemplifies an old and expensive roster more than the San Francisco 49ers. Trent Williams and George Kittle are well over 30 years old and in the final years of their careers.

While Kyle Shanahan has proven he can win with any roster, the Super Bowl window is rapidly closing, and it starts with Christian McCaffrey. The veteran running back is still playing at an MVP level despite being a 30-year-old running back. McCaffrey is the x-factor of the 49ers’ offense, and once he regresses, that will be it for their Super Bowl window.

This is without mentioning Brock Purdy. The 26-year-old quarterback has played well in his career, but has seen significant regression since his 2023 season. In 2025, Purdy played nine games, throwing for 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

The NFC West is stacked. The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a Super Bowl, and they met the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship game. Despite winning 12 games in 2025, I’m not sure San Francisco is a top-2 team in their division.

There is a bright spot, however. The 49ers have the 10th most cap space this offseason and could make significant additions to their roster. With an aging roster, 2026 may be the year for San Francisco to go all in.

1. Buffalo Bills

There’s a simple reason why the Buffalo Bills are under so much pressure in 2026: Josh Allen.

The veteran quarterback had his chance in 2025. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals were all not in the playoffs, yet Allen couldn’t find his way to the Super Bowl. The AFC has been the best conference in football over the years, and with a majority of the powerhouses out of the picture, 2025 should’ve been the Bills’ year.

Buffalo knew this, too. After failing to reach the big game, they parted ways with Sean McDermott and made Joe Brady their head coach. The AFC East is only getting harder. The New England Patriots made the Super Bowl in Drake Maye‘s second season, when the Bills couldn’t do it in eight seasons with Allen.

The cap situation for Buffalo isn’t much better. They are sitting with the fourth-least in the NFL, with $12 million in the red. They are allocating plenty of their available cap space to older veterans, and there isn’t a lot of room for younger additions.

With a disappointing ending to the 2025 season and a rising Patriots team, the Bills and Allen are under the most pressure in 2026.