There’s no bigger unknown in the NFL than a historic franchise under new management. Especially when that franchise is the New England Patriots, a team trying to reboot its dynasty from the rubble of recent seasons. “I want to galvanize our football team. I want to galvanize this building. I want to galvanize our fans.” Mike Vrabel said, with promise, to the legacy. With three Super Bowl rings as a player, he walks into Foxborough with the kind of built-in respect most rookie head coaches can only dream of. But respect doesn’t guarantee wins. And right now, projections aren’t doing him any favors.

When CBS Sports dropped its 2025 head coach rankings, there was a surprising twist: Vrabel ranked just 16th among NFL coaches. Not exactly a vote of confidence, especially when you consider that insiders also believe his team may fall well short of expectations. Despite offseason buzz and a rookie QB in Drake Maye, who’s drawn comparisons to some of the league’s sharpest young passers, early models still peg the Patriots at six wins. That’s only a notch more than their four-win total in 2024, a minor improvement for a franchise looking to redefine itself.

CBS SportsLine analyst Mackenzie Brooks put it bluntly: “I think a 50% increase is a pretty solid projection for them, but that still takes them to around six wins for us.” Brooks questioned the logic of an 8.5-win betting line, noting that while Maye is promising, he’s still “a top nine, maybe ten quarterback” at best right now. “We’re trying to call this team the Bengals,” she said. “They’re not.” The idea wasn’t to criticize Maye; it was to show that even the best players don’t always win without teamwork and depth at the highest level.

Insider Mike Renner added another layer to the skepticism: “The Patriots are one of the hardest teams to project…there’s really no continuity from last year to this year.” With four new starting offensive linemen, a revamped WR core, a new backfield, and five new defensive starters, this is an entirely different team. Renner praised the talent haul but stopped short of predicting a breakout. “They’ve added about as much talent as I’ve seen a single team add in an offseason,” he said. “But that still doesn’t guarantee it clicks right away.”

Still, for all the optimism surrounding Vrabel’s return and the injection of fresh talent across the roster, the early signs suggest reality may not match the narrative, at least not in Year 1. But this is where he wanted to be, “In the end, it was clear to me and to my family and my soul that this was the place that I wanted to be, and I thank Robert, and I thank the Kraft family.” Vrabel will give it all for sure, but a six-win projection doesn’t scream resurgence, especially for a franchise used to Lombardi expectations. And if Robert Kraft envisioned a quick turnaround with a familiar face at the helm, he might need to brace for a longer, bumpier road ahead.

Kraft’s big swing with Mike Vrabel might take longer than expected

People can’t say that Robert Kraft isn’t doing anything. The owner of the Patriots planned one of the most active offseasons in the team’s recent history, overhauling nearly every key unit. They bought in Milton Williams from the Eagles, Carlton Davis from the Lions, and Robert Spillane from the Raiders. They even gave Drake Maye a true WR1 in Stefon Diggs. It comes out as a clear message to the league: New England is not interested in tanking, but the time has come, and they want to win now.

And then came the boldest move of all: firing Jerod Mayo after just one year and hiring Vrabel, a beloved Patriot-turned-coach with postseason pedigree. Vrabel’s resume isn’t light as it contains an AFC Championship appearance, and a No. 1 seed with Tennessee proves he can win, even without elite weapons, as the passion runs through his blood. But as CBS’s Cody Benjamin noted, “Tennessee never quite escaped its reputation as an old-school offense under his watch.” That’s not exactly what fans want to hear when grooming a modern franchise QB.

The problem? Time. NFL rebuilds aren’t clean. The Patriots may have made all the right moves on paper, but cohesion takes reps. Trust and chemistry make games. And development with new faces, especially with a rookie QB and a first-year staff, can’t be microwaved. Kraft may love Vrabel’s fire, but patience is a different conversation. If six wins is what this season becomes, the long-term bet on Mike Vrabel will need a second act to truly prove itself.

What remains to be seen is whether the Pats’ fanbase and, more importantly, their owner can wait that long.