The World No. 1 race is here, and it boils down to two names: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Sure, Sinner kept his hopes alive, claiming the Rolex Paris Masters, defeating Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4, 7-6(4), and gaining 1,000 points to his season score. But even with that win, Sinner is still 1,050 points behind Alcaraz in the 2025 race. So, what exactly needs to happen for either player to finish the year on top, and could Turin be the place where it all changes?

The Nitto ATP Finals in Turin (November 9-16) will be the stage where the 2025 year-end No. 1 is likely decided. Every match counts. For Sinner, it’s all or nothing: he must win the title to even have a chance at finishing first. Even one loss in the round-robin stage could make his task much harder. Alcaraz, however, has more room for error. He can finish No. 1 even if he slips up a little in the tournament. But how much of an advantage does he really hold heading into Turin?

As per the official ATP Rankings, Jannik Sinner has 11,500 points, while Alcaraz has 11,250. But in the ATP Race to Turin, which counts only points earned in 2025, Alcaraz leads 11,050 to Sinner’s 10,000. Sure, Sinner’s win in Paris closed the gap, but Alcaraz still holds the advantage. Because when last year’s ATP Finals points drop off before this year’s tournament, Alcaraz will even regain the No. 1 ranking before the tournament starts.

Jannik Sinner’s path to finishing as number 1 is tricky. If he wins every match, he still needs Alcaraz to lose at least one match in the round-robin or before the final. But if Sinner loses once, Alcaraz must lose twice. And if Sinner loses twice but still wins the title, Alcaraz would have to go winless. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has several ways to secure year-end No. 1. He can do it by winning three round-robin matches, reaching the final, or even if Sinner fails to win the tournament. He can still earn points in the semifinals or final even if he only wins one or two games in the group stage. However, does this imply that Sinner’s dream is still possible?

200 points are awarded for each round-robin match in Turin. No matter what happens later, Alcaraz can guarantee No. 1 with 600 points from an undefeated group stage run. A 2-1 record plus a semi-final win gives him 400 more points, still enough. Sinner, though, has to win the title and ideally go undefeated. But Sinner doesn’t think he can make it. As he said after winning the Paris Masters, “No, it’s impossible. I mean…It’s going to be a goal for next year. This year, it’s not in my hands. Let’s say it like this. “ But he can!

Here’s the big picture: if Jannik Sinner wins Turin without losing a match, he could finish with 11,500 points, just 450 points ahead of Alcaraz’s pre-Turin total. That means Alcaraz only needs 451 points, essentially two wins, to secure the year-end No. 1. If Sinner slips even slightly, Alcaraz is almost guaranteed to finish on top.  In short, Sinner has to play flawlessly to have a shot at the top spot. But right now, it looks like he’s been handed a golden opportunity to overtake Carlos Alcaraz and finish the year as world No. 1.

A favorable draw puts Jannik Sinner on the fast track to year-end No. 1

Fate is seemingly on Jannik Sinner’s side. After a thrilling 2025, the Italian looks well-placed to finish the year at No. 1. For the Nitto ATP Finals 2025, he leads the Bjorn Borg Group with Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, and either Felix Auger‑Aliassime or Lorenzo Musetti, and on paper, it’s a group made for him to shine.

Zverev should be the first hurdle, but Sinner has him figured out. He beat Zverev twice in the last few weeks, first in a tense Vienna final, then in the Paris semi-finals, where he dominated the world number three in straight sets, giving up just one game. He now leads their head-to-head 5-4.

Although Sinner has never lost to Shelton in seven games over the past three years, history is on his side. The last place in the group won’t likely matter much either, as Sinner hasn’t lost to Auger-Aliassime since 2022 and has never lost to Musetti. Everything suggests that he will easily advance to the next phase.

Alcaraz, however, has a tougher path. He’s in the Jimmy Connors Group with Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, and Alex de Minaur. Here, Djokovic has won seven times, Fritz is playing well, and de Minaur never gives up. Every game is a true test, which makes Jannik Sinner’s path appear much simpler.