Fresh off a commanding straight-sets victory over Jasmine Paolini, Jessica Pegula marches into the WTA Finals semi-finals in Riyadh, ready to clash with the blazing Elena Rybakina in a showdown of momentum and might. Her 53rd win of the season ties Serena Williams for the most triumphs after turning 30, and now she eyes one more to reach another final, two years after her heartbreak in Cancun. Yet across the net stands Rybakina, the Kazakh firebrand chasing her first Finals crown. Meanwhile, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka faces World No. 4 Amanda Anisimova in another high-voltage semi-final, a battle between perfection and persistence, power and poise. The question remains: who will rise when the lights burn brightest?

Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina: Preview

Jessica Pegula walked into Thursday’s showdown fully aware of the many possibilities awaiting her in the Steffi Graf Group. But the 31-year-old American didn’t leave her fate to chance. With a crisp 6-2, 6-3 victory, she dismantled Italy’s top-ranked player, making a statement loud enough to echo across Riyadh. Her clinical precision and unflinching focus painted the perfect picture of a player who knows when to rise to the occasion.

Her serve was her sword, saving 12 of 16 break points, landing 80% of first serves, and controlling tempo with icy precision. Indoors, her rhythm has been building steadily: three wins and two losses across her last five matches, including fierce encounters with Coco Gauff and Daria Kasatkina. “It was my first straight-sets win in months,” she admitted afterward, a quiet acknowledgment of the grind behind her resurgence. 

Pegula’s numbers reveal a competitor reborn, perfect in handicap games over her last five indoor duels, breaking serve 44% of the time against top-10 opponents. Her 53-22 record this year, and firm hold on the No. 5 ranking, cement her status as one of the WTA’s most battle-hardened warriors.

But standing in her way is the silent storm from Kazakhstan, Elena Rybakina. Chasing her 54th win of 2025, Pegula will face a rival at the peak of her powers. Rybakina entered the Finals in blistering form, fresh off a title in Ningbo and a streak that has turned heads across the sport. 

“Every win builds confidence,” Rybakina said after conquering Ekaterina Alexandrova, and that belief has been her greatest weapon. The 2022 Wimbledon champion has dropped only three sets in this dazzling run, including a bagel against Iga Swiatek that sent shockwaves through Riyadh. Her booming serves, clocking at 120 mph, have become a fearsome signature. She leads the WTA in 2025 with 56 wins, just ahead of Pegula’s 53, and shows no signs of slowing down.

Her recent journey hasn’t been without scars. In Paris, she fought Aryna Sabalenka tooth and nail in a 6-4, 7-6(5) loss that tested every ounce of her resilience. Saving four match points before falling in a 92-minute tiebreak, Rybakina walked off the court battered but unbowed. That fighting spirit now fuels her in Riyadh, where she aims for her 10th straight win and a place in the final.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova: Preview

Aryna Sabalenka’s season has been nothing short of supreme, a masterclass in dominance and durability. The Belarusian powerhouse reached eight finals, seizing titles in Brisbane, Miami, Madrid, and the US Open, while finishing runner-up in Melbourne, Indian Wells, Stuttgart, and Roland Garros. Her 71-week hold on the No. 1 ranking stands as a testament to relentless excellence, built on a ferocious serve and suffocating baseline power. Across 71 battles, she has unleashed 267 aces, won 68.6% of first-serve points, and converted 47.7% of break points, dropping her guard only briefly in Doha and Dubai.

Amanda Anisimova’s 2025 campaign, meanwhile, tells a story of grit and grace through chaos. The American carved her way to finals in the US Open, London, Wimbledon, Doha, and Beijing, balancing brilliance with bouts of physical strain.

Calf, back, and minor injuries forced untimely withdrawals in Singapore, Wuhan, and other events, yet her numbers speak of resilience. With 206 aces in 59 matches, a 66.1% first-serve success rate, 45.6% return points won, and 45.3% break-point conversions, Anisimova has fought through pain to craft a season defined by defiance, one that refuses to fade quietly.

Pegula vs Rybakina: Head-to-Head

In their four duels, Jessica Pegula holds the upper hand with a commanding 3-1 record over Elena Rybakina, a rivalry rich with grit and precision. The last time they clashed, Pegula stamped her authority with a 7-5, 6-2 triumph at the 2023 WTA Finals, a performance that blended finesse with fire. Rybakina’s lone breakthrough came earlier that year at the Miami Open, where she struck back with icy composure, winning 7-6 (3), 6-4. 

Sabalenka vs Anisimova: Head-to-Head

Amanda Anisimova holds a 6-4 edge over Aryna Sabalenka in their compelling rivalry, a saga defined by shifting tides and fierce momentum. Their story began at the 2019 Australian Open, where Anisimova struck first with a commanding straight-sets win, extending her dominance with three more victories in the years that followed. Sabalenka’s breakthrough finally came in Rome 2022, when she clawed back with a gritty comeback. Since then, the duel has evened out, with Sabalenka seizing statement wins at Roland Garros and the US Open, while Anisimova answered with her own dazzling triumph at Wimbledon.

Prediction: Pegula and Sabalenka to win the matches in three sets

Jessica Pegula has been a model of precision and perseverance on hard courts this season, amassing an impressive 38-15 record. Her lone title in Austin served as the foundation for a season that saw her reach three additional finals, in Adelaide, Miami, and Wuhan, and deep semifinal runs at both the U.S. Open and the China Open. Pegula’s game has been built on sharp consistency and tactical awareness, traits that have carried her into the semifinals in Riyadh. 

However, Pegula has been broken five times in three matches, a vulnerability she has countered with fierce determination on return. She has converted 13 of 27 break-point opportunities, proving that when her back is against the wall, she finds another gear to turn defense into offense.

Elena Rybakina, by contrast, has been a force of rhythm and raw power on hard courts, carving out a 43-13 record this season. Her crowning moment came with the Ningbo Open title, but her consistency across the calendar has been just as remarkable. The Kazakh powerhouse has reached the semifinals in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Washington, Montreal, Cincinnati, and Tokyo, stamping her authority as one of the tour’s most formidable competitors.

Rybakina’s serve remains her greatest weapon. She has won 80% of her first-serve points in Riyadh, her delivery humming with precision and pace. Under pressure, she has been ice-cold, saving eight of the ten break points she faced while converting 75% of her own. The numbers reflect not just form, but fearlessness.

Although Pegula holds the upper hand in their head-to-head, Rybakina’s red-hot rhythm gives her the slightest edge in their looming semifinal showdown. A three-set thriller may be on the cards, but the Kazakh’s serving efficiency could tilt the balance her way.

On the other side of the draw, Aryna Sabalenka has been her typical blend of fire and force, winning 66% of her first-serve points and 56% of her second serves through three matches in Riyadh. She’s been broken eight times but remains devastating on return, converting 14 of 29 break-point chances.

Amanda Anisimova, meanwhile, has struck the perfect balance between power and poise. Winning over 70% of her first-serve points and 55% behind her second, she’s been broken only four times while breaking her opponents nine times. 

Though their rivalry tilts in Anisimova’s favor, the hard-court head-to-head stands level at 2-2, and with Sabalenka finding her rhythm again, the Belarusian enters as the narrow favorite in this electrifying semifinal duel.