UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs Hill was originally set to feature two light heavyweight bouts. However, the UFC scrapped one as one fighter tested positive for the coronavirus. As a result, the Ed Herman vs Mike Rodriguez bout will be the sole light heavyweight fight on the penultimate main card at the UFC Apex. 

‘Short Fuse’ Ed Herman enters his first fight in 2020 and is on a two-fight winning streak. He beat Patrick Cummins and Khadis Ibragimov and is seeking a third win in a row for the first time since 2012.

Mike Rodriguez hasn’t been able to build momentum as a UFC fighter with two wins, two defeats, and a no contest to his name. However, both of his wins have come via finishes, which keeps with his career history. 

He claimed a win just three weeks back at UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs Edgar and feels that the time could be ripe to set his UFC career on track to the top.

UFC Fight Night: Ed Herman vs Mike Rodriguez- Analysis

A glance at Herman’s career stats may give fans the impression that he is a submission specialist. He has claimed 13 wins in this fashion, but the last of these came in 2012 at UFC 143. Ever since then, he has won just five fights. 

Rodriguez has 16 fights under his belt, winning 11, losing four, and has one no-contest. He is yet to claim a single win on the judges’ scorecards. In the UFC, Rodriguez landed 4.59 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy. He has a strike deflection score of 44% with 3.58 strikes avoided every 60 seconds in five UFC bouts. 

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‘Short Fuse’ landed 1.26 lesser significant strikes and his accuracy in the UFC is 5% lower than his opponent. His strikes absorbed percentage is just a fraction lower, which shows that in a striking battle it will be all Mike Rodriguez.

However, Rodriguez will have to contend with a high volume of takedown attempts. Herman averaged 2.20 takedowns every three rounds at a 48% accuracy. This statistic could hold him in good stead against a fighter with a 38% takedown defense. 

‘Slo Mike’ has a game-changing five-inch reach advantage and can maintain distance while landing strikes at will. 

The stats are in Rodriguez’s favor and it is up to Herman to throw a spanner into the works with his ground game. If there ever was a time for him to return to his roots and re-discover long-forgotten submission game, it would be tonight. 

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‘Short Fuse’ has lost via T/KO just three times and unless ‘Slo Mike’ finishes the fight early, it’s tough to see him fend off every takedown attempt. He has gone beyond round one on two occasions in the UFC and has been taken down 11 times. 

Both fighters will have their moments with Rodriguez’s punching volume, leaving a lasting impression in the minds of the judges.

Prediction: Mike Rodriguez to claim a split decision win.