With two former champions moving up in weight classes to challenge reigning titleholders, UFC 322 shapes up to be a historic, never-before-seen card. The action unfolds this Saturday at the prestigious Madison Square Garden. Calling it the best card of the year, prominent MMA analyst and podcaster Luke Thomas gave it a straight A.

Clearly, with Sean Brady, Michael Morales, Leon Edwards, and Carlos Prates occupying the main card, all eyes are on the developments within the welterweight division. Climbing up from lightweight, where he reigned until vacating in May 2025. Islam Makhachev has sounded one of the loudest clarion calls the welterweight division has ever heard. Yet, it appears that even the headliners and top-ten contenders entering UFC 322 will do so under the shadow of recent shake-ups, largely triggered by one man who raised the stakes last weekend.

Gabriel Bonfim breaks through: A new force in the welterweight top ten

Well-known MMA writer and commentator John Morgan shared an updated list of welterweight rankings. He welcomed Gabriel Bonfim. “Welcome to the top 10, Gabriel Bonfim,” wrote Morgan. He explained. Following his stellar performance at UFC Vegas 111, the Brasilia-born fighter, a former LFA welterweight champion, now sits at No. 10.

“Following his main event win at #UFCVegas111, “Marretinha” moves up four spots to take the No. 10 position in the latest welterweight rankings update,” Morgan’s post read. Until recently, Bonfim was ranked fourteenth. However, his second-round victory over Randy Brown at the UFC Apex launched him on an impressive upward trajectory.

What makes Bonfim different from the typical Brazilian pressure fighter is the accuracy. He doesn’t chase chaos; he manufactures it. He uses long combinations to push opponents into panic defense, then finishes with sniper-clean counters. There’s no wasted movement, no brawling for the sake of brawling.

As a result, Colby Covington, Gilbert Burns, Geoff Neal, and Daniel Rodriguez each slid down a spot. With Jack Della Maddalena as the champion and Belal Muhammad holding the No. 1 contender spot, the upper echelon of the division remains largely unchanged.

At the Arman Tsarukyan-Dan Hooker headlined UFC Fight Night 265, two of the division’s top contenders, Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry, will face off, potentially shaking up the rankings even further.

A storm brews in the welterweight division

Bonfim’s rise is especially significant in light of what’s coming just a week after UFC 322. As a Brazilian, Bonfim might have cemented his position earlier. He was originally scheduled to compete at UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot. But in hindsight, headlining UFC Vegas 111 proved to be the better opportunity. Following his narrow win over Stephen Thompson, the decisive victory over Brown helped Bonfim erase some lingering doubts. It also earned him his second Performance of the Night bonus.

Strictly speaking, from JDM downward, every ranked welterweight contender is in a precarious, touch-and-go situation.

Islam Makhachev enters the bout as the clear favorite. Meanwhile, after falling to JDM, Belal Muhammad faces immense pressure as he prepares to take on the confident Ian Garry, who is coming off a convincing win over Carlos Prates. Highlighting the risks fighters are taking, Luke Thomas noted, “This was a huge risk,” in reference to Sean Brady’s matchup against the unbeaten Michael Morales.

Perhaps outside the main event, no one has more at stake than Leon Edwards. The former champion enters the octagon after two consecutive losses. So a defeat to the ever-volatile Carlos Prates could leave his career hanging by a thread.

With Gabriel Bonfim now in the mix, the welterweight division might be at its most exciting stage in years. It’s anyone’s game now. The division is wide open. Edwards isn’t just fighting Prates; he’s fighting the narrative that his championship run was timing, not dominance. The UFC has short memory syndrome. A third loss in a row won’t just drop him in rankings; it rewrites how his legacy is remembered.

Do you think JDM will hand Islam Makhachev his second UFC and career loss on Saturday night?