Rodriguez, a promising three-year-old sired by Authentic and trained by Bob Baffert, has shown some real potential, especially with that impressive front-running win in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. But you know, his path to the Belmont Stakes hasn’t exactly been a walk in the park. Rodriguez was originally set to race in the Kentucky Derby, but he had to be scratched because of a quarter crack. This hoof injury is pretty common, but it definitely needs some careful attention. This setback also meant he couldn’t participate in the Preakness Stakes.

Baffert has shared that the issue is all sorted out now, mentioning that the quarter crack isn’t a worry anymore. With that, the colt is prepared to run in the American Triple Crown final. But there’s another thing going on as we get closer to the race.

According to BloodHorse, Rodriguez adds another layer of complexity that Baffert has recognized, saying, “We tried rating him. He just didn’t want any part of that; you know, he wasn’t happy being behind horses. So, unfortunately, he’s sort of a one-dimensional kind of horse. When you have the horse like that, you’re at the mercy of the pace.”

So, after trying to get Rodriguez to sit back and save some energy early on, Baffert realized that the colt just didn’t feel right running behind other horses. The horse wasn’t having any of that strategy, clearly showing he likes to be out in front right from the beginning. The trainer’s remarks suggested there might be a bit of a tactical challenge, especially with adaptable closers like Sovereignty in the mix, particularly since the track conditions are likely to be soft or muddy.

In these situations, those in the lead usually struggle to keep up their pace, and not being able to tuck in behind competitors might make it tough for Rodriguez to succeed. Also, the colt hasn’t raced since the Wood Memorial, which makes it even trickier to guess how he’ll do. As we gear up for Belmont Stakes Day, it seems like the track might actually give an edge to Baffert’s rival horse.

Bob Baffert’s rival might get the upper hand

Freelance horse racing writer Tim Wilkin mentioned, “Rainy start to Belmont Stakes Day at Saratoga. Things are supposed to improve as the day gets longer. Can’t get any worse.” Looks like it’s raining over at Saratoga!

So, the conditions are going to be muddy and pretty challenging. And this is going to work out well for Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby winner, since he knows how to handle these conditions. He wrapped up with a time of 2:02.31 at Churchill Downs during the G1 race, really showcasing his endurance and how well he can handle the conditions at the track.

With Saratoga’s forecast staying this way, it looks like Bob Baffert’s rival horse has a big edge over the other horses in the race. Also, Sovereignty hasn’t raced since the Kentucky Derby because his trainer, William Mott, chose to give him a break. This will provide him with the energy he needs to recover and compete at Belmont. Everything seems to be lining up nicely for Sovereignty, but we’ll just have to wait and see if he can pull off that win.