The 2025 NHL Playoffs are heating up, and one of the most intriguing matchups in Round 2 is a familiar one: the Florida Panthers vs. the Toronto Maple Leafs. This isn’t just a clash of two top Atlantic Division teams—it’s a rematch of the 2023 Conference Semifinals, where the Panthers stunned Toronto in five games. Both rosters have retooled, the stakes are even higher, and the bitterness between the teams has only grown.

Florida has an advantage in the 2024–25 regular season series, having won 3 out of 4 games against Toronto. Their victories—5-1 in November, 3-2 in March, and 3-1 in April—came with convincing performances. The Panthers’ only blemish was a close 3-2 loss in early April at Scotiabank Arena.

Over 111 total meetings, both teams have 52 wins apiece (with seven draws), showcasing the razor-thin margin in their historic rivalry. But the recent trend clearly favors Florida, which not only beat the Leafs in their last playoff showdown but also boasts a deeper, more playoff-seasoned lineup this time around.

Inside the Leafs’ locker room

There’s a plot twist this time: Toronto now leans on three former Panthers—Anthony Stolarz, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Steven Lorentz—who all played key roles in Florida’s 2024 Stanley Cup run. Each brings championship pedigree, a blue-collar mentality, and firsthand knowledge of what makes the Panthers tick.

In net, Stolarz has made a strong case for himself with sharp positioning and poise under pressure. Through even-strength play, he’s posted a .929 save percentage and ranks top five in goals saved above average. It’s a slight statistical edge over Sergei Bobrovsky, whose numbers haven’t popped the same way—but the Panthers’ veteran still brings elite postseason experience that could prove crucial in the clutch.

On defense, Ekman-Larsson has seamlessly slotted into Toronto’s blue line, showcasing his two-way instincts and delivering in key moments. He’s already matched last year’s playoff goal total and has been dependable, shutting down rushes and killing plays in his own zone. Further up the ice, Lorentz has made his presence felt on the fourth line with Calle Jarnkrok and Scott Laughton, driving play with tenacious forechecking and board battles. Though the trio hasn’t broken out on the scoresheet yet, their ability to tilt possession and wear down opponents has been a quiet strength.

Firepower vs. forecheck

Toronto’s “Core Four”—Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares—answered the bell in Round 1. Matthews struck on the power play, Nylander dominated Game 6, and together they carried the Leafs past Ottawa. But Round 2 brings a different beast.

Florida counters with Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, and Gustav Forsling—balanced by Selke-caliber defense and gritty scoring. Add in a third line of Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen, and Brad Marchand, and the Panthers arguably boast the deepest top-nine in the NHL. That line combined for 15 points against Tampa and was pivotal in tilting matchups their way.

Head coach Paul Maurice has a history of neutralizing Toronto’s big names. In 2023, Matthews was held pointless in nearly 40 minutes of shared ice with Barkov. Maurice acknowledged the challenge, saying, “You’re not shutting anyone down. But it’s about volume—how much you give, how much they create.”

Where Florida may shine brightest is the forecheck. Ranked No. 1 in generating turnovers in Round 1, they pressured Tampa into mistakes. Toronto’s defense—among the bottom third of playoff teams in handling forecheck chances—must hold up better or risk being overwhelmed.

Depth, discipline, and a battle in the net

Florida’s additions—Seth Jones on the blue line and Brad Marchand in the middle six—have already paid off. Jones logged over 25 minutes a night in Round 1, scored a game-winner, and helped carry the load with Aaron Ekblad’s missing time. His composure under pressure and ability to drive play make him a wildcard X-factor.

Matthew Tkachuk’s health looms large. Limited in minutes last series due to a lower-body injury, he still posted five points in five games. With a week’s rest, he could be fully unleashed—dangerous news for Toronto.

Special teams will be a game-changer. Toronto’s five-forward power play was potent against Ottawa, running at 35.3%. But it also coughed up five shorthanded goals. Florida, which led the league in shorties during the regular season, thrives on exploiting overaggression.

Goaltending will define the margins. Stolarz has the edge statistically, but Bobrovsky has the resume—and the last word in big moments. He’s fresh off a dominant series win and remains the backbone of Florida’s playoff runs.

The advanced models lean toward the Panthers, but not overwhelmingly. Florida’s structure, depth, and postseason experience give them the slight upper hand. Toronto has home ice and is playing with renewed confidence under coach Craig Berube, but they’ll need elite-level performances and airtight discipline to pull off the upset.

If Matthews rediscovers his finishing touch and Stolarz steals a couple of games, this series could flip quickly. But if Florida imposes their physical, suffocating style, it could look a lot like 2023 all over again.

Game 1 drops May 5 in Toronto. From past grudges to new faces, this one has all the makings of a classic. Buckle up.