When Carolyn Peck said, “I think Indiana is even more dangerous when Caitlin Clark doesn’t play,” we didn’t know just how right she was! The 2025 WNBA season has been a testament to resilience, patience, and determination for the Indiana Fever. By season’s end, nobody was laughing; they were reassessing. After snapping a seven-year playoff drought in 2024, the Fever rolled into 2025 with high expectations and a clear mission: go further. That momentum, however, ran headlong into the cruel arithmetic of injuries.

Caitlin Clark, the franchise’s catalytic talent, only appeared in 13 games this season before a groin issue and related setbacks sidelined her for the remainder of the year. That absence would have flattened many teams. For Indiana, it became a test of identity.

But even though Amber Cox and Kelly Krauskopf were faced with the challenge of their lives, they didn’t back down. The Fever front office had to sign a bunch of injury replacements. Now, credit where credit is due, Krauskopf and Cox did a fantastic job of picking players out! I mean, Aari McDonald? Odyssey Sims? Aerial Powers? They brought in players that were a) frequently overlooked, and b) perfectly matched the system Indiana was going for. And what did that result in? A better regular season record than last year!

What might read like a series of band-aid fixes instead revealed a through-line: this group refuses to fold. Lexie Hull, who has been with the team since before the Fever’s recent turnaround, summed it up plainly after a practice media availability “I think this year we’re just a tighter group. Because we’ve gone through so much this season that we’re really excited about the opportunity to surprise some people.” She said, then credited that shared hardship with making the roster a “tighter group” heading into the postseason. That cohesion, not a single superstar carrying the load, is now the team’s real weapon.

The goal, this year, for the Indiana Fever was to win a chip. And the argument can be made that if Caitlin Clark wasn’t injured, and if their entire backcourt didn’t need to be replaced, Indiana would’ve had a genuine shot. But the rotations have been ever-changing, not that Stephanie White had a choice, because of frequent injuries.

As Hull said earlier in the video, “We’ve been through so much this season. To have a roster that we know is going to be our roster going into a game is exciting.” She said, in reference to the Fever’s flickering faces! But the six-foot-one wing had nothing but praise for her team’s current lineup. “It’s not a new roster where I think everyone’s bought in, everyone’s vying for everyone each other. So, I think we’re heading into this very strong and connected, and that’s all we can ask.”

Right now, the Fever has a chance of making history. Sure, the WNBA bumped up its yearly calendar to 44 games, but Indiana managed to win 24, a significant four-game improvement since last year. And let’s be honest–they did it without Caitlin Clark. Sure, the Fever is statistically a better offensive team if CC can run with them, but they aren’t relying on the six-foot-tall point guard to come bail them out anymore. So, in light of Indiana’s newfound ‘independence’, do they still have a shot at contending?

Indiana Fever’s championship odds keep on climbing regardless of Caitlin Clark’s absence

Nobody knows what to make of the Indiana Fever right now. They’re missing some major pieces; they aren’t a top-4 seed; they’re just… there. Stephanie White has delivered on her unspoken promise of a better season, albeit barely. So, where do they go from here? What are the odds that the Indiana Fever can win a championship this year?

Forecasting models like ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) are meant for these dynamic snapshots that adjust as games happen. BPI has steadily nudged Indiana’s postseason probabilities upward as the Fever have strung wins together; whether you cite a specific percentage or the trend, the pattern is clear: momentum and cohesion have bumped their profile.

So, what changed? Jessica Shepherd from the Minnesota Lynx put it best. “I think they just played harder than us today.” Now that times are tough, and the group knows there aren’t gonna be any magical injury returns in the backcourt, they’re playing with a newfound vigor! Indiana is on an impressive three-game winning streak, beating out the Sky, the Mystics, and the Lynx, so momentum is definitely on their side.

It will all boil down to the first game of the first round, likely to be in (and against) Atlanta. If Stephanie White’s team can band together and win just one game, they have a sure shot at making a deep playoff run this year. Caitlin Clark might not be on the floor, but that doesn’t mean that the Indiana Fever aren’t contenders, right?