If there’s one way to sum up these two teams, it’s simple: beyond expectations!

Sure, Minnesota was expected to return the strongest this year, but the way they’ve executed has been nothing short of jaw-dropping. And Golden State…well, the fact that an expansion team has muscled its way into the playoffs says it all.

Now, it’s no secret the Valkyries are heavy underdogs against a playoff-tested team that has MVP-candidate Napheesa Collier, DPOY frontrunner Alanna Smith, and the StudBudz. Not to mention, they’re steered by one of the greatest minds in basketball, Cheryl Reeve. But if there’s one team capable of springing a surprise this postseason, it is GSV.

How we got here: Series context & season recap

The Minnesota Lynx storm into the 2025 WNBA playoffs as the No. 1 seed with a dominant 34-10 regular-season record, tying the all-time single-season wins mark set by the 2023 Las Vegas Aces. They set the tone early, opening 9-0 and winning 17 of their first 19. Even when Napheesa Collier missed three weeks with an ankle injury in late August, the Lynx hardly blinked, going 5-2 without her.

It feels like Minnesota has been waiting for the postseason for over a month. They clinched their playoff berth back on August 12 and locked in the No. 1 seed a couple of weeks later. The closing stretch became more about managing minutes and rotating rest than pushing for results, leading to mixed results on the court..

On the other side, the Golden State Valkyries etched history in their debut season. Finishing as the No. 8 seed at 23-21, they became the first expansion team to reach the playoffs in year one, shattering the previous record of 18 wins by the 1998 Detroit Shock. Their September surge included a five-game winning streak and a playoff-clinching victory over Dallas on the 4th. 

Even after a 74-73 loss to Seattle on the 9th and a finale defeat to Minnesota, the Valks still showed fight.

Now, the Lynx have their eyes on something much bigger than the first round. But don’t mistake Golden State for a team just happy to be here. The Valkyries have made it clear that they didn’t crash the playoffs just to take pictures.

Catch the Action:

• Sunday: Golden State at Minnesota, 12 p.m.
• Wednesday: Minnesota at Golden State, 9 p.m.
• Friday (if necessary): Golden State at Minnesota, time TBD

Season series recap

Minnesota owned the matchup all year, sweeping the Valkyries 4-0, including two wins in the final week and a half. But don’t let the sweep fool you. For most of 2025, these games were tighter than the record shows. The only true blowout came in Thursday’s season finale, a 19-point rout that doubled as Golden State’s worst shooting night of the year. Even then, the Valks trailed by just four late in the third before Minnesota pulled away.

Key results:

• June 1: Lynx 86–75 win at Golden State
• July 5: Lynx 82–71 home win
• Sept. 6: Lynx 78–72 win at Chase Center
• Sept. 11: Lynx 72–53 finale rout

Playoff History

This marks the first-ever postseason clash between Minnesota and Golden State, a brand-new chapter for both franchises.

How they match up: Strengths & weaknesses

Minnesota’s elite balance makes them a juggernaut, leading the league in both offensive and defensive ratings as the Valks rank 10th when it comes to offensive rating and third in defensive.

The Lynx set the pace with versatile scoring and suffocating defense, holding opponents to just 76.7 points per game, second-best in the league. The only team better? The Valkyries, who allowed just 76.3. That defensive grit is their calling card, though on the other end, Golden State ranks just 10th in offense, often living and dying by volume-heavy shot-making.

The Lynx, by contrast, blends star power with depth. Nearly their entire Finals-tested bench from last season remains intact, giving Reeve flexibility and trust. Golden State, meanwhile, leans on a collection of veteran role players. Without a true superstar, their rotations are reliable but vulnerable to fatigue. On the glass, the Valkyries actually hold a slight edge at 35.3 rebounds per game compared to Minnesota’s 34.2. But the Lynx’s real weakness comes on the offensive boards, a byproduct of lacking size inside.

They more than make up for it, though, with the league’s deadliest three-point shooting, 37.8% from deep (1st) on 9.6 makes (2nd). Golden State, fittingly, bombs away too, leading the league with 9.7 makes per game. But their accuracy dips to 11th, meaning those nights can swing from scorching hot to ice cold fast. Inside, Minnesota’s advantage shines with Collier’s post-ups and paint scoring, while the Valks rely heavily on transition offense, though they often give up buckets inside in return.

All in all, Minnesota’s efficiency and depth make them heavy favorites to punish Golden State’s shooting variance. But if the Valkyries’ defense dictates tempo, this series could turn into a grind far closer than the seeding suggests.

What could change the game?

Statistical

• Getting to the line: Minnesota sits near the bottom of the league in free throw attempts (16.1), makes (12.2), and percentage (76%). Golden State, on the other hand, ranks top-5 across the board (18.4 attempts, 15 makes, 81.5%). If the Valkyries can draw whistles and capitalize at the stripe, that could be a real equalizer.

• Pick your poison, Valks: An answer for Napheesa Collier could change everything, but easier said than done. Collier has tormented Golden State all season, averaging 21.3 points in their four matchups. The dilemma is keying on Collier opens space for guards Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman, both capable of swinging momentum. The Valks will have to pick their poison defensively.

• Home & “Home-ish” court advantage: Minnesota has been a fortress at 20-2 on its home floor. Golden State isn’t far behind with a solid 14-8 at home. There’s one change, though. Valkyries’ home court is shifting 45 miles down the road from Chase Center to San José’s SAP Center. But it still promises to be a packed house.

• Signature styles: Minnesota’s crisp motion offense, built on Collier’s pick-and-pops and McBride’s flare screens, wears defenses down. Golden State lives by their “Bomb City” threes, often sparked by Veronica Burton. Whichever identity holds truer in the pressure of playoff basketball could tilt the series.

Storylines

• Valks won’t back down: Natalie Nakase has made it clear, her team doesn’t see themselves as an “expansion team.” As she put it ahead of Game 1, all that matters is making shots, “which we are capable of.” Expect Golden State to play loose and fearless. They might not, but their head coach brings plenty of postseason experience from her time with the Las Vegas Aces.

• Lynx chasing revenge & title no. 5: Minnesota is fueled by last year’s Finals heartbreak, where they still believe the championship “was stolen” in a dramatic Game 5. This postseason is about payback and history. A title run would give Cheryl Reeve and the Lynx their fifth WNBA championship, the most in league history.

Stars and key contributors

The biggest roster difference is health. Minnesota enters mostly intact, with only Dijonai Carrington listed as probable for Game 1 due to a shoulder issue. Golden State, meanwhile, has already taken major hits with Kayla Thornton out for the season, and what could have been a game-changing factor in Tiffany Hayes (knee) is sidelined as well.

Minnesota Lynx

Napheesa Collier (22.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.2 APG): The MVP frontrunner and 2024 Defensive Player of the Year. Collier is coming off a historic 50/40/90 season, ranking second in league scoring and already having led Minnesota to the Finals last year. Beyond the numbers, her mindset has been locked on the championship trophy from day one.

Kayla McBride (14.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 3.5 APG): One of the greatest shooters in WNBA history, McBride is a two-way sniper with six years of playoff experience and a career postseason scoring average of 14.5.

Courtney Williams (13.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 6.2 APG): The floor general, ranking 2nd in the league in assists. Her transition playmaking and six years of playoff experience make her invaluable.

X-Factors

• Alanna Smith (9.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.9 APG): A DPOY frontrunner who ranks third in blocks, her rim protection changes games.
• Natisha Hiedeman (9.1 PPG, 2.8 APG): A fearless scorer off the bench with a knack for big moments.
• Jessica Shepard (8.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.6 APG): Her 63.8% three-point shooting leads the league.
• DiJonai Carrington: A potential swing piece if she’s cleared to play.

Golden State Valkyries

Veronica Burton (11.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6.0 APG): The heartbeat of the Valks, Burton has stepped into a starring role after Thornton’s injury. A Most Improved Player candidate, she ranks third in assists and sets the tone on both ends.

Janelle Salaün (11.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.2 APG): The French rookie has impressed with consistent scoring and rare defensive versatility. At 6’2″ with quick feet, she can credibly guard all five positions.

Iliana Rupert (9.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG): A floor-spacing center and deadly catch-and-shoot threat, ranking second league-wide in three-point efficiency (44.2%). Her quick release forces defenses to stretch thin.

X-Factors

Safe to say, the entire bench. Golden State’s depth has been a lifeline all season. Their bench averages 24.3 points per game, third-best in the WNBA. Monique Billings, Carla Leite, Kate Martin, Laeticia Amihere, and especially Cecilia Zandalasini (averaging 10.5 points) all bring spark, with rookie Kaitlyn Chen waiting in the wings for a potential playoff moment. If the Valks are to hang with Minnesota, their second unit must step up.

Worth noting, though, Lynx’s bench is the fourth best, too, producing 22.8 points per game.

Prediction

Analysts overwhelmingly expect Minnesota to handle business, and fan chatter on social media largely agrees. Golden State’s historic debut has earned admiration, but belief in a true upset is slim, though a few give the Valkyries’ defense a puncher’s chance to swipe Game 2 at home.

We’re siding with the experts. Minnesota’s depth, balance, and playoff pedigree should be too much for the expansion squad to overcome. Lynx in 2–0. And Minnesota marches on to the semifinals, with its eyes on a Finals rematch.