On hard courts, is Jannik Sinner simply untouchable? In the last year and a half, no one has come remotely close to matching his level on this surface. The Italian has won the last three Grand Slam tournaments played on hard courts and is walking into the US Open as the clear favorite. On top of that, he’s chasing a record tied to none other than 20-time Grand Slam champion Roger Federer.  But not everyone is buying the comparisons. Let’s find out what’s happening!

The world No. 1 made his return to the ATP Tour on Saturday at the Cincinnati Open and wasted no time reminding everyone why his name keeps coming up alongside the greats. Playing for the first time since lifting his first Wimbledon trophy last month, Sinner powered past Daniel Elahi Galan 6-1, 6-1 in just 59 minutes. It was his quickest win of the season and sent him into the third round without breaking much of a sweat.

That kind of dominance has been Jannik Sinner’s norm on hard courts since last year. In 2024, the Italian racked up seven hard-court titles at the Tour level, two of them Majors, along with the ATP Finals trophy. And this excellent showing has earned him a rare milestone.

With 55 wins in 58 matches that year, he posted the third-best winning percentage in hard-court history. Only Federer has done better, and he’s done it twice. In 2005, the Swiss Maestro went 50-1 on hard courts, a staggering 98.03% win rate. The next year, he went 59-2 for 96.72%. Those are the only two seasons ahead of Sinner’s 2024 numbers.

But not everyone is convinced the comparison is fair. American ATP legend Mardy Fish took to X to say, “Now do who Roger had to deal with against who Sinner has to deal with… I’ll hang up and listen.”

During Federer’s 2005-2006 run, his main rivals included Rafael Nadal, Andy Roddick, Andre Agassi, Marat Safin, and David Nalbandian. His only hard-court loss in 2005 came to Safin in the Australian Open semifinals. In 2006, Andy Murray also stepped into the picture, handing Federer one of his two hard-court losses that season at the Cincinnati Masters. The other came against Nadal in the Dubai final.

Sinner’s current challengers look different. His biggest rival is Carlos Alcaraz, with Novak Djokovic still posing a consistent threat by making deep runs in majors. Jack Draper, who claimed the Indian Wells title, has entered the mix, along with Alexander Zverev. Out of the three hard-court losses he suffered in 2024, two came against his main rival, Carlos Alcaraz, once at Indian Wells and once at the China Open. The third was a surprise defeat against Andrey Rublev at the Canadian Open.

Some argue the eras can’t be compared, but the numbers place Sinner in territory Federer once owned. And the next step in his season could put their names side by side in the record books.

Jannik Sinner could match rare Roger Federer feat

If Jannik Sinner had converted one of the three championship points he held at Roland Garros, he would be heading into the summer hard-court swing with a calendar Grand Slam in sight. That chance slipped away, but another piece of history is still within reach.

The four-time Grand Slam champion has already taken two majors in 2025, defending his Australian Open title and breaking through at Wimbledon. If he wins again in New York, he will become the first man in 18 years to win both the Australian Open and US Open in back-to-back seasons. The last man to do it? Roger Federer, who managed it in 2006 and 2007.

Right now, few players can match Sinner on a hard court. Since losing to Zverev at the 2023 US Open, he has been unbeatable at hard-court majors. Sinner’s grip on hard courts has been as relentless as it is rare. Can anyone stop his reign? What do you think?