One of boxing’s most exciting divisions is set for a flurry of action in the coming weeks. A month from now, moving up a weight class, WBC titleholder Stephen Fulton will face super featherweight champion O’Shaquie Foster in a high-stakes clash. Then, as the new year kicks off, WBC champion Nick Ball will step in for his next title defense. But before Fulton and Ball make their ring walks, all eyes will turn to the card unfolding at the Arena Coliseo in San Luis Potosí.

On Saturday, November 15, WBO champion Rafael Espinoza will defend his belt for the fourth time, this time against Ukrainian challenger Arnold Khegai. There hasn’t been much buzz about the Top Rank event. Probably because it’s wedged between major cards like the now-canceled Jake Paul-Tank Davis exhibition and the Chris Eubank Jr.-Conor Benn rematch? Still, given the stakes and Espinoza expressing interest in a matchup against ‘The Monster’ Naoya Inoue, this bout will have the diehards watching closely. Ahead of the showdown, let’s take a closer look at the two fighters.

Predicting Rafael Espinoza vs. Arnold Khegai: Who has better stats and a record?

In terms of experience and record, 31-year-old Espinoza holds the upper hand. Making his professional debut 12 years ago, the fighter from Canelo’s hometown of Guadalajara has built an impressive 27-0 record and remains undefeated.

Two years his senior, Ukraine-born Khegai, who now fights out of Philadelphia, turned professional in 2015. Of his 26 fights, he’s suffered two losses. One at the hands of champion Stephen Fulton and another to title challenger Joet Gonzalez. His lone draw came early in his career.

Strike rate is another area that separates the two. With an 85% knockout-to-win ratio, the Mexican champion edges out his Ukrainian counterpart, who boasts a still-respectable 61% KO rate.

Rafael Espinoza vs. Arnold Khegai: Height, weight, reach comparison, and more

The fighters are distinctly built, and it’s hard not to marvel at how the 5-foot-5 Khegai plans to jab against a 6-foot-1-inch-tall belt holder. Espinoza’s reach measures 74 inches (188 cm), compared to Khegai’s 66 inches (168 cm).

The official weigh-ins are still pending. But recent fights might offer some insight. Before knocking out Edward Vazquez in May, Espinoza weighed in at 125.4 pounds. Khegai, meanwhile, tipped the scales at 127 pounds ahead of his bout with Liborio Solis two months ago.

Fight prediction

If anyone calls this a tune-up fight for Rafael Espinoza, it wouldn’t be an exaggeration. Beyond the records and knockout rates, even the betting odds suggest Arnold Khegai faces long odds of dethroning the featherweight champion.

Espinoza enters as a heavy favorite, with a 90% implied chance of victory. Khegai steps in as a +900 underdog.

That disparity likely stems from Espinoza’s recent form. Last December’s title defense against Robeisy Ramirez raised questions after the Cuban-born fighter suffered an eye injury. However, Espinoza’s emphatic win over Edward Vazquez silenced any lingering doubts.

Khegai, meanwhile, hasn’t enjoyed the same momentum. After a strong 2024, this year began with a setback, a close-decision loss to Joet Gonzalez on a ProBox Fight Night in January.

Styles and Strategy

Tall for a featherweight, Espinoza uses his height to control distance and pace. His natural instinct, however, is that of an aggressive stalker who doesn’t hesitate to engage in close quarters. Since most of his opponents have been shorter, his jab is less of a weapon. Instead, he relies on piercing uppercuts and body shots.

That’s precisely where Arnold Khegai must tread carefully. A pressure fighter with a background in Muay Thai, the Ukrainian tends to walk straight into his opponents. Such a linear approach could play right into Espinoza’s counter-body shots and uppercuts.

Fans and pundits seem to have already made up their minds. But Espinoza vs. Khegai still promises to be an exciting watch that boxing purists won’t want to miss.

Do you think Espinoza should call out Naoya Inoue if he wins on Saturday?