“It’s just not meant to be,” Denny Hamlin sighed, his voice breaking as he leaned against the pit wall under the Phoenix lights. The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship had slipped through his fingers. Again! After leading late and looking poised to finally capture the title that has haunted his career, one caution and a pit-road gamble left him watching Kyle Larson celebrate instead.

But for Hamlin, it wasn’t just another defeat; it was déjà vu of the cruelest kind. And the way it all unfolded (the dominance, the twist of fate, the heartbreak) drew an uncanny sense of familiarity. For many, Hamlin’s latest collapse echoed another unforgettable moment in NASCAR history: the painful downfall of Carl Edwards.

A late caution changes everything for Hamlin

For much of the night, Denny Hamlin looked every bit like the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series champion in waiting. Starting from the pole, he immediately set the tone at Phoenix, running a clean, commanding race that kept his No. 11 Toyota out front for the majority of the evening. He finished third in Stage 1, then stormed back to win Stage 2 with ease.

As the laps wound down in Stage 3, Hamlin’s dominance only grew. By Lap 292, he’d built a cushion of 1.3 seconds over Byron. Just five laps later, that lead ballooned to more than two seconds. Everything was under control. Until it wasn’t. On Lap 309, disaster struck. Caution is out! William Byron’s right-front tire went flat, sending the race into NASCAR overtime.

The yellow flag flipped the entire championship script. During the pit stop on Lap 312, Hamlin’s crew opted for four fresh tires, a move that proved costly. Larson, gambling with a two-tire change, beat Hamlin off pit road. When the green flag waved again, Hamlin’s momentum was gone.

He restarted deep in 10th, fought hard in the closing laps, and clawed his way to a sixth-place finish. Kyle Larson, meanwhile, finished third. And it was enough for Larson to clinch the championship on points. For Hamlin, it was yet another gut-wrenching heartbreak in a career already filled with near-misses.

Now, fans are drawing parallels between Denny Hamlin’s 2025 championship loss and Carl Edwards’ heartbreak in 2016, blaming the current playoff points format, which led both drivers to miss out on a championship. If you remember, back then, during the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, NASCAR threw a caution for Dylan Lupton’s flat tire in Turn 1 with just a handful of laps remaining. This wiped out Edwards’ comfortable lead in the winner-take-all showdown.

On the restart, Edwards tried to block Joey Logano’s inside move, but the two made contact, sending Edwards’ car spinning into the wall. In an instant, his title dream was gone, marking one of the most heartbreaking moments in NASCAR championship history. The parallels are uncanny. Byron had a flat tire, NASCAR threw a caution, and Denny Hamlin lost the championship due to a miscalculated pit road strategy. Perhaps that’s why one fan rightly pointed out, “This is literally 2016 Carl Edward’s all over again, and it’s the fault of the format.”

NASCAR fans compare Denny Hamlin’s 2025 loss to Carl Edwards’ 2016

Many fans echoed similar sentiments, expressing concern for Hamlin’s future. The anxiety is understandable. Edwards retired abruptly after missing the 2016 season, with many speculating that missing out on the championship was the reason. That’s why one fan remarked, “I hope Denny pulls an Edwards and just leaves.” The comment highlighted the real possibility that Hamlin may reconsider his NASCAR career if his championship dreams continue to be dashed by format frustrations.

While Edwards denied retiring from the sport due to the incident for all these years, he recently expressed frustration with the result of the race and that it might have played a part in the decision. On the Dale Jr. Download podcast, Edwards said, “I know NASCAR was throwing those cautions to make it more exciting. That’s a fact. I specifically talked to people about it, and that’s that. We’re all in the sport to entertain, and they were trying their hardest at the time,” he revealed.

Now, some believe Hamlin might not go as quietly. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls a Carl Edwards and leaves, but he won’t have as much class. He’ll go scorched earth in court to burn it all down,” one fan said. It was obviously a reference to the ongoing antitrust lawsuit between NASCAR and 23XI Racing, the team co-owned by Hamlin and Michael Jordan, or his Actions Detrimental podcast, where the veteran shares his unfiltered views weekly.

The December 1 trial could dramatically change NASCAR’s structure, affecting team operations, charter rights, and competitive balance. And with Hamlin losing out on the championship, fans speculate he will go all out now to win at least off-track. Finally, one fan summed up what much of the NASCAR community feels today.

“We feel the same. Not really interested in the gimmicks anymore. Love racing. This ain’t it.” It’s a sentiment that cuts deep. Fans aren’t turning away from the sport. In fact, they’re turning away from what it’s become. And if NASCAR doesn’t find a way to bring back the purity of true racing, it’s not just Hamlin they risk losing, but the heart of the fanbase itself.