The sun-drenched desert of Avondale, Arizona, will host a momentous event as Phoenix Raceway stages its last planned NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race of the year. The unique layout and worn asphalt demand a blend of horsepower and precision, setting the perfect stage for a dramatic, winner-take-all conclusion.

The performance of the Goodyear Racing Eagle tires, the sole supplier for NASCAR, will be crucial, especially on a typical Arizona late-fall weekend. High track temperatures, combined with the Next Gen car’s characteristics and the aggressive tire compound, will cause increased tire wear and a huge fall-off in lap times.

A hotter track generally makes the tires greasy, reducing grip and forcing teams to gamble on pit strategy, transforming tire management into a high-stakes chess match that could make or break a championship run. So, what exactly does the forecast predict for the finale?

Temperature war looms over Phoenix title race

Friday, October 31, kicks off the action with the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Championship race set for 7:30 p.m. ET on FS1. The race is scheduled for 150 laps (150 miles), with stages ending at Laps 45 and 90. Practice and qualifying sessions precede the race, with Truck Series qualifying airing on FS2 at 3:35 p.m. ET.

The weather forecast is for plentiful sunshine during the day with a high of 86°F and light variable winds around 5 mph. The chance of rain is at 0% for the day. The night will feature clear skies with a low around 59°F and light northwest winds at 4 mph, offering optimal conditions for the Championship race.

Saturday, November 1, features qualifying sessions for both the Xfinity and Cup Series, followed by the Xfinity Series Championship Race. NASCAR Cup Series qualifying airs on truTV at 5:00 p.m. ET. The NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race will go green at 7:30 p.m. ET on The CW, running 200 laps (200 miles) with stages ending at Lap 45 and 90.

The weather is predicted to be sunny with a high of 87°F and light south-southeast winds at 5 mph. The humidity is forecast at 22% with no chances of rain, making for excellent daytime track conditions. The night conditions remain clear and consistent with a low of around 59°F and a negligible rain chance, so there’s hardly any chance of a race delay.

Sunday’s main event is the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race, the final race of the season, set for 3:00 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, covering 312 laps (312 miles) with stages ending at Laps 60 and 185.

Race day is forecast to be mainly sunny with a high of 88°F and light east-southeast winds at 4 mph. The daytime chance of precipitation remains 0%. The evening is predicted to be mainly clear, with a low of 61°F and a 5% chance of rain developing late, ensuring a probable on-time start and finish for the Cup Series Championship 4 finale.

Overall, the weather for the weekend appears consistently warm and dry, with highs in the mid-to-high 80s, marking a significant shift from the cool temperatures experienced at Martinsville the previous week. The stable, sunny forecast should provide consistent track conditions across all three championship events and the 12 Championship contenders.

Where each NASCAR Championship 4 driver stands ahead of Phoenix

As the 2025 NASCAR season reaches its thrilling conclusion, all eyes turn to Phoenix Raceway for the Championship 4 weekend, a tripleheader showdown across the Cup, Xfinity, and Truck Series. Among all the 12 contenders, Corey Heim stands out as the clear benchmark, having delivered one of the most dominant seasons in NASCAR history. With 11 wins and an incredible 5.2 average finish, Heim’s campaign surpasses even Jeff Gordon’s fabled 1998 season (5.7).

Yet his biggest challenger, Ty Majeski, knows how to win when it matters most. He beat Heim at Phoenix last year for the Truck title. While Heim enters as the overwhelming favorite, Majeski’s 2024 triumph proves the desert has a way of humbling even the most dominant.

In the Xfinity Series, Connor Zilisch has captivated fans with a record-breaking rookie campaign, capturing 10 wins and establishing himself as the next generational talent. But he’ll have to fend off his JR Motorsports teammates, veterans Justin Allgaier and Jesse Love, as well as the consistent Carson Kvapil.

Allgaier’s experience and Phoenix expertise make him a legitimate threat to reclaim the title he narrowly lost last year, while Love, despite a shaky Martinsville race, continues to impress with his composure at just 20 years old. Kvapil, meanwhile, represents the classic Cinderella story, a winless rookie who could join Daniel Hemric in the exclusive club of first-race, first-title champions. The JRM stable’s internal rivalry promises a fierce battle under the Arizona sun.

In the Cup Series, Denny Hamlin once again carries the weight of expectations, entering his 5th Championship 4 appearance. “It just doesn’t make sense, guys,” he once said about losing money on risks, but this time, he’s gambling it all for legacy. Two past Phoenix wins (2012, 2019) prove his capability, yet history has been unkind to him when it counts most.

William Byron, fresh off a clutch Martinsville win where he nudged Ryan Blaney aside to advance, looks hungrier than ever to claim his first Bill France Cup. Behind them, Kyle Larson remains as dangerous as ever, armed with a 10.7 average finish and the best crew chief in the field, Cliff Daniels. Chase Briscoe, meanwhile, has been on fire this postseason, making the title race in his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing and showing the confidence of a future champion.

Rounding out the field of contenders are rising names and surprise entries who have already defied expectations. Tyler Ankrum clawed his way into the Truck Series Championship 4 by a single point, marking a career-best season, while Kaden Honeycutt’s underdog run, surviving a tiebreaker after a chaotic Martinsville, reads like something out of a NASCAR fairy tale.

Each of these 12 drivers, Heim, Majeski, Zilisch, Allgaier, Love, Kvapil, Hamlin, Byron, Larson, Briscoe, Ankrum, and Honeycutt, has carved their own path to Phoenix. Some chase redemption, others legacy, but all share one goal: to etch their names into NASCAR history under the blazing desert lights.