Ryan Blaney thundered to a jaw-dropping victory last Saturday. By winning the Coke Zero Sugar 400, the No. 12 Ford driver overcame his streak of superspeedway wrecks. But what his Daytona win also did was reinforce Team Penske’s late-season dominance, which has become a usual spectacle for four years now. Blaney and Joey Logano have delivered the last three championships to their team, alternating wins, Logano in 2022 and 2024, and Blaney in 2023. Amidst their brilliance, however, Rick Hendrick’s top-tier Cup team has unfulfilled ambitions.

Since 2022, Hendrick Motorsports has been a solid force to reckon with. The team has won 38 races in this three-year stretch, dominating storylines in multiple races. However, the true belle of the ball has been Team Penske, as it snatched the championship by the end of every season. Will 2025 also be a grim repetition of this streak?

A pall of gloom lingers over Rick Hendrick’s fold

Granted, HMS drivers claim a quarter of the 2025 playoff field. However, there are several doubts. William Byron started off the season with a bang and followed up in Iowa. But of his 15 career Cup wins, only one came during the playoffs. Then, Kyle Larson was lights out until the Memorial Day Double. He has not won a race or led more than 40 laps in a single event since Kansas.

Similarly, Chase Elliott also lost his top 20 streak in Iowa, and finds himself 7th on the playoff grid – every point will matter to him if he cannot return to Victory Lane. Alex Bowman slipped into the playoffs despite getting caught in a lap 27 wreck in Daytona. And the No. 48 team only has two points to start the playoff season, fewer than any other contender.

Hence, the situation looks pretty glum for Rick Hendrick’s drivers. The Athletic’s journalist, Jeff Gluck, appeared in a recent ‘Door, Bumper Clear’ episode and declared his jarring opinion. “I’m shutting out Hendrick completely,” he said. Gluck continued that an extra emphasis on Phoenix Raceway, where all four HMS drivers finished in the top ten, did not help much. “Hendrick put this whole emphasis…in the off-season, Phoenix, phoenix, Phoenix…in Spring, they weren’t where they wanted to be. They’re not as good at those flatter tracks…I’m worried about them. Spot off for Byron to win the championship, I don’t even have him in the final four.”

Rick Hendrick’s counterpart, Roger Penske, is in a far better standing. The latter’s drivers have dominated most of the short tracks in the postseason, as Jeff Gluck said: “It’s about the tracks; it’s not even about season performance. And the tracks line up so, so well for Penske. I mean, I could even see Cindric making it into the final four…Penske cars, they’ve got Gateway in there now, got New Hampshire in there now. They already got Martinsville and Phoenix. It lines up so well for them. Look what they did in Richmond – they got three top fives and Berry was 8th or something…They’re gonna be formidable.”

Clearly, Team Penske is outmaneuvering Rick Hendrick’s fold in terms of playoff predictions. Meanwhile, however, one of Hendrick’s drivers still presents a solid challenge.

Beating his mate in rank

Since the beginning of 2025, one name has dominated the championship standings. William Byron almost monopolized the first rank throughout the season. He briefly lost it to Chase Elliott after finishing 31st in Dover as his teammate led 238 laps en route to a 6th-place finish. Byron snatched back his crown soon after Indianapolis. But even after winning the regular season championship, Byron has lost the top spot.

The No. 24 Chevrolet driver will not enter the NASCAR Cup playoffs as the top seed following the points reset. That honor will instead go to his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Kyle Larson.

The two drivers under Rick Hendrick are tied at 2,032 points apiece. Since Kyle Larson has more wins (three to Byron’s two), he gets placed atop the standings for the start of the Round of 16. However, the No. 5 Chevrolet also got help from NASCAR’s new rule.

According to this, the bonus point goes to whichever driver posts the fastest lap in each race. Larson has been awarded the fastest lap bonus in four different races this year: Circuit of the Americas, Kansas Speedway, Mexico City, and Watkins Glen. As a result of securing third in the standings over Elliott, he now has one additional playoff bonus point, bringing his total to 32. Entering the Southern 500 in Darlington, Larson has the upper hand.

Hence, the competition will get tight within Rick Hendrick’s fold as well. Let us wait and see how his drivers perform in the playoffs.