Luka Doncic’s journey in the NBA has never lacked drama or skill. Averaging 28.6 points per game and 8.6 assists, his performance has never garnered negative traction. Yet, in the past 18 months, as fame rose, expectations touched the ceiling, but the outcome didn’t. Apart from the 2021 finals, he hasn’t managed to take both the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Lakers to a respectable playoff round despite individual brilliance. Now, as he preps for his first full season in L.A., Doncic faces a new kind of pressure. Not just to deliver for one of the league’s most storied franchises, but to prove he still belongs in the NBA’s elite inner circle, a debate that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has managed to establish.

The Lakers have clearly gone all-in on Luka. Reshaping its roster around him, bringing in Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart, and keeping LeBron James and Austin Reaves in the fold. Meanwhile, judging by the buzz from open gym footage, the Slovenian star seems to be focused on his redemption this upcoming season. Social media has exploded over “Skinny Luka” pics, including a viral clip of him draining a casual half-court shot while wearing a black sleeveless shirt. Locked on Lakers host Andy Kamenetzky remarked, “The Skinny Luka mania going on right now. The latest pic that I’ve seen people going crazy about…Everything we’ve seen, Luka looks pretty good.” But while the fitness glow-up is real, Lakers insider Jovan Buha offered a sobering reality check.

“I’m confident, at least going into next summer,” Buha said of Luka’s new offseason regimen. Drawing from conversations with Luka’s long-time coach, Franco, and his own experience covering Doncic since his teenage years. Buha explained that Luka tends to take his conditioning very seriously, but only in phases. “That seems to be more of like a seasonal thing—some summers he does it, some summers he doesn’t.” But Buha didn’t hold back in pointing out the consequences of this inconsistent commitment.

With players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rising in dominance, Luka’s once-secure position among the league’s elite now feels more tenuous. “Before the Luka trade…I thought he was the second-best player in the league behind Jokic. And now I think Shai winning MVP, and winning a championship, you could certainly make an argument for him over Luka,” added Buha. The combination of a rocky exit from the Dallas Mavericks, a disappointing playoff showing with the Lakers, and questions around his conditioning has all contributed to a noticeable shift in how Doncic is perceived around the league when stars like SGA and Nikola Jokic are leading the MVP stats.

According to Buha, these events, coupled with ongoing questions about Doncic’s conditioning, have caused many to reconsider just how high he ranks among today’s NBA elite. He also noted that “Giannis is always in that mix and that would be the other guy who I had kind of as like the top three,” pushing Luka further down in the top-tier discussion, as top sports continue crowding the field.

With the release of the upcoming top-10 player rankings looming, Buha predicted a significant drop in Luka Doncic’s placement on many lists. “Luka’s probably going to drop to five, six, seven for some people,” he said, calling that kind of fall “too low.” But acknowledging that it’s reflective of the broader skepticism surrounding Luka’s trajectory. For the first time in his career, Doncic is facing the reality of no longer being viewed as a surefire top-two player. And that perception may be fueling his offseason transformation.

Jokic and Shai emerge as Luka’s biggest threats

With Luka’s grip on superstardom being questioned, two names are rapidly rising to challenge his place among the league’s elite: Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Kevin O’Connor recently posted the latest NBA Regular Season MVP odds on X, highlighting just how competitive the race is expected to be next season.

According to the odds, Jokic leads the pack at +220, followed closely by Shai at +280, fresh off an MVP win and a championship. Luka Doncic comes in third at +700, reflecting both his immense talent. And the lingering questions surrounding his consistency, health, and ability to elevate the LA Lakers after a turbulent season. Rounding out the top contenders are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama, and Anthony Edwards. Each of whom has the potential to make a serious leap depending on team performance and personal development.

While Doncic’s odds show he’s still considered one of the top talents in the league. But he’s no longer seen as the MVP front-runner. Jokic and Shai’s current form and recent accolades have clearly shifted the landscape, putting Luka in a position where he’ll need to prove he’s still among the elite. Shai’s meteoric rise, capped off by an MVP and championship in the same year, has placed him in rare company. Jokic, meanwhile, continues to be the most consistent and efficient superstar in the NBA. If Luka wants to reclaim his spot near the top, he’ll need more than highlight clips and muscle definition; he’ll need to dominate when it matters most.

Buha, however, hasn’t written him off entirely. “That dude looks like a guy who can go out and win MVP next season,” he said. “And if we want to bet on the Lakers exceeding expectations… it’s Luka just going crazy next year, averaging 32, 33, 8–9 rebounds, 7–8 assists, and going out and winning his first MVP and that team winning like 55 games.” Luka’s offseason grind has been real. From his gluten-free, high-protein diet to eccentric force training in Croatia and Madrid labs, everything screams commitment. His personal training team, nicknamed “Team Luka,” has spent the summer rebuilding his body and fine-tuning his game for longevity. And while the internet obsesses over his transformation, Luka is locked in on one thing: winning.

But even with that level of dedication, the margin at the top is razor-thin. Being “in shape” is no longer enough for a player of his caliber, as ESPN’s David Dennis Jr. pointed out. “We’re supposed to be talking about this guy who needs to be an MVP-type of dude, and we’re celebrating the fact that he looks like he’s in shape? The bar should be way higher than that for somebody of Luka Doncic’s caliber.” If Luka wants to avoid falling behind Shai, Jokic, and Giannis. Or even young wolves like Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards, he has to prove this offseason commitment isn’t just a phase. He’ll need to lead, defend, and win at the highest level, starting on opening night.