Rick Pitino cannot recognize college basketball anymore. “The game I’ve been in for over 40 years no longer exists,” Pitino wrote in late December. NIL has changed college basketball from the roots. It’s no longer about great recruiting and player development but more about who can get players the best business deal. The “pay for play” model, as some call it. Naturally, not every program has been able to keep up with the times and an anonymous coach has laid bare the reality for some. 

“The point guards I’m hearing about—someone told me one is expecting $3 million. Our budget this year was right at $8 million. If we pay one guy $3 million, we can’t put together a roster,” a high major coach told  Joe Tipton of On3. That is the reality of today. Inflation has hit college basketball. And this is not a sudden change but a gradual one.

Ever since NIL and revenue sharing became legal, multiple coaches, from John Calipari to Rick Pitino, have been predicting this exact thing. Last year, Kentucky had an astounding reported budget of around $22 million. North Carolina hovered around $14 million. There were 8 teams in the $10 million club.  These astronomical budgets mean players like AJ Dybantsa ($7m reported NIL deal) and JT Toppin ($4 million) can demand just as high paydays. These top teams are inflating the market to the extent that teams with lower budgets are struggling to sign players. While there are other factors, this is the biggest one. 

According to On3, there is a player in the Big East currently offered $2 million to stay. That seems like an astronomical number but the report mentions that the same player is getting $4 million elsewhere. If we continue in this trend, the top teams with the highest budget will continue to dominate. That means fewer cinderella runs, fewer underdog stories and all in all a drop in entertainment and competitiveness. 

The strategy will become (arguably already has) to get millions in funding and buy the best. Even for these top programs, such spending is not sustainable. The budgets rely on donors and if their enthusiasm declines, the budget could suddenly drop. Then, they will have a difficult time retaining players on a lower budget.

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One possible solution proposed by John Calipari is to form a collective bargaining agreement. Since college basketball is still considered amateur, there are no spending controllers to bring a sense of equality like the NBA. But even that has its flaws and challenges. This arms race has caused another domino effect on the market.

The College Basketball Transfer Portal Now Lasts All Year

After endless calls from coaches and college sports administrators to change the college basketball transfer portal window protocols, the NCAA finally gave in. The players now will not be able to enter the portal until the day after the NCAA Tournament ends. The portal will be open for 15 days from its onset, the shortest window for entry yet. However, it is important to note that there is no deadline for a player to commit to a school after they enter the portal.

Compared to 2024, when the transfer portal was open for 45 days and the process started the day after Selection Sunday, this is a monumental change. NCAA tournament teams no longer have to worry about recruiting while they are playing in the big dance. Yet, a revelation has come about that these transfers are decided way before the transfer portal officially begins. 

“Portal talk starts in November when the games start. ” An SEC coach said. “First five games of the year, you start hearing kids are unhappy, or an agent calls saying, “this guy is averaging 20; he is going to hit the portal. And some of them are pretty locked into what’s happening.” That is essentially tampering. Players are not allowed to contact programs before the deadline. NCAA vice president of enforcement Jonathan Duncan recently announced that the DI Board of Directors has charged its staff with new directives regarding tampering violations. 

“NCAA staff from enforcement, hearing operations, and governance and membership services will work with Geoff Mearns, president of Ball State and chair of the Division I Board of Directors Infractions Process Committee, and an infractions modernization task force to propose policy changes to expedite the resolution of rules violations and make other improvements,” Duncan’s announcement read, per Yahoo Sports‘ Ross Dellenger.

However, it’s still a tricky situation. Since it has become a common practice according to some coaches, it is a competitive disadvantage for coaches who don’t. The NCAA needs to be effective in cracking down on such practices or they will only grow.