With 2,700 players swarming the transfer portal, J.T. Toppin’s $4 million deal with Texas Tech has set a new standard. But PJ Haggerty is hot on his heels, with a $3.5 million offer from Ole Miss. And well, he still hasn’t committed. One analyst warns him not to get greedy, advising, “Take the deal.” But is Haggerty’s ambition a sign of a potentially bigger payday, or is he playing a risky game that could cost him?

While many would say Haggerty is playing with fire, there’s no denying he’s worth the deal. A standout at both Tulsa and Memphis, he’s become one of the most coveted transfer targets in the nation. Averaging 21.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists last season, it’s no surprise that top programs are lining up. However, his reported $4 million NIL request and desire to run the offense as a point guard have given even suitors like Ole Miss pause. And reports say that his camp had even demanded $5 million at one point! You might think that the future is looking good for him as the Rebels have offered $3.5 million, and Memphis is still in the game with a $3 million counter.

But considering that he still has everyone on the edge, it might not stay that way for long. As Jeff Goodman recently said, “Memphis transfer PJ Haggerty may find a taker, but multiple Top 25 programs have opted not to get involved due to the $4 million-plus price tag and demand of playing the point, sources told @TheFieldOf68. Haggerty is a stud, bucket-getter – but it’s still all about timing right now. A lot of schools are hesitant to pay $4 million, and a lot of schools have already spent majority of their budget”.

Hence, it’s no surprise that on a recent episode of the Locked on College Basketball podcast, analyst Isaac Schade went off about Haggerty’s approach: “I just don’t think PJ and or the people around him have gone about this well,” Schade said, echoing a larger concern about athletes pushing for too much, too soon, in an already volatile market. “If I’m him, I’m snatching one of those up quick,” Schade further advised. “And if I’m those coaches, I’m putting a timeline on him. Come get it.”

Schade’s comments weren’t just a critique of Haggerty’s handling of the situation; they drew comparisons to past athletes who overplayed their hand. One prominent example? Nico Iamaleava—once a five-star quarterback, now a caution sign flashing bright. He chased $4 million, turned down Tennessee’s $2.5 million, and ended up at UCLA for nearly half that. For PJ Haggerty, that misstep isn’t just history—it’s a mirror.

Meanwhile, if Haggerty doesn’t come back to Memphis, head coach Penny Hardaway might be left pondering why Haggerty would turn down $3 million to stay with the program where he flourished. As Schade pointed out, “to get more money, to come back to the place where you were just an All-American, where you were just an absolute dude, it’s known, they know how to utilize you. Penny knows how to use P.J. well.”

Despite the allure of a bigger paycheck elsewhere, Memphis offers more than just money—it offers fit, trust, and a system built around his strengths. Walking away from that for an unproven setup could turn into a gamble that costs Haggerty more than it pays.

Yes, J.T. Toppin scored a $4 million NIL deal from Texas Tech, a rare feat that puts him on par with an NBA rookie, while still in college. But here’s the catch: Texas Tech isn’t just any program; it’s now in the “Golden Tier” of NIL spenders, with over $10 million committed for the upcoming season, alongside heavyweights like Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina. This financial muscle makes them a serious contender in the NIL game. However, for most players, this kind of deal remains a distant dream.

This is especially true for Memphis, as Jeff Goodman had recently revealed a shocking factor about their front office situation. “Memphis can’t pay. From what I am told, they do not have the money. Believe it or not, which is shocking to me, with all that FedEx money. They don’t have the money to pay PJ Haggerty that type of money,” he said on his podcast. He finds it confusing because FedEx has promised to allocate $25 million over five years to the NIL program at Memphis. Then again, Haggerty’s request is a bit over the top, so the $3 million just doesn’t seem to be getting that appraisal. Throw in the fact that Haggerty is more of a scorer and not a point guard. And prospects dim even further.

Yeah, so, Haggerty’s deep history with the program, coupled with his exceptional scoring ability, could be why he’s being offered $3 million—almost double the $1.7 million he was reportedly earning previously, according to College Sports Network. It’s a testament to how much Memphis values his contribution, but the question remains: will he settle for this generous offer, or is he betting on a bigger payday elsewhere?

After Toppin, Haggerty, who leads the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Transfer Portal

As Haggerty weighs his options, let’s turn our attention to some of the standout transfers in the 2025-26 season that have already made the headlines.

First up: Chad Baker-Mazara. The Auburn star made waves by heading to USC and has reportedly cashed around $3 million in NIL and transfer bonuses, according to Jeff Goodman of The Field of 68 After Dark. And guess what? He’s not the only one with a fat paycheck—Rodney Rice also raked in a similar sum. USC didn’t just dip its toes in the transfer waters; it made a splash.

Over at St. John’s, they’re continuing their spending spree. After splurging $4 million on NIL deals last year (per Sports Illustrated), they’ve now added a major piece to the puzzle in shooting guard Ian Jackson from North Carolina. Talk about stacking the deck!

Meanwhile, Michigan’s been quietly plotting its own roster upgrade. Yaxel Lendeborg, a versatile forward who put up 17.9 points per game at UAB, is now donning the maize and blue. That’s one huge addition to their depth chart. Iowa’s also getting stronger, adding dynamic point guard Ben Stirtz from Drake, ready to shine in the Big Ten. And don’t sleep on Texas Tech. They’ve grabbed sharpshooter Donovan Atwell, a 40% 3-point sniper from UNC Greensboro, to light it up from beyond the arc.

These moves? They’re just the tip of the iceberg, but they sure have the potential to turn the 2025-26 season into one for the ages.