Kim Mulkey’s LSU is on its way to March Madness, but they’re facing the hard fact that it is no longer a frontrunner for a No. 1 seed.

The Tigers are 24-4 and 10-4 in the season. However, their rankings might have a lot to do with their SEC conference, as per reports.

Speaking on the recent episode of the No Offseason podcast, analysts Chantel Jennings and Sabreena Merchant decoded two major elements holding back LSU from being the fourth No. 1 seed, besides UConn, UCLA, and South Carolina: a weak non-conference strength of schedule and a fragile Quad 1 record, due to the stronger teams in the SEC conference.

“Their non-conference strength of schedule is 280,” Jennings said. “It’s not very good at all, like literally ranks among not great teams when you’re looking at that sort of 270 to 290, they’re not necessarily the teams that you want to be grouped in with.”

Jennings’ assessment carries weight. Despite playing in a conference like the SEC, they have a schedule strength of 0.5650, ranking 50th in the nation. And most of the credit for it goes to their non-conference stretch of games. They didn’t face a single ranked team in non-conference games, unlike other teams of their conference, like South Carolina, which has faced formidable teams like USC (Big 10).

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“I think LSU really lost their opportunities to make a big dent, in terms of these marquee wins,” analyst Merchant added, further explaining LSU’s disappointing Quad 1 record. “They lost to South Carolina, their second game against Texas. The only way I see LSU getting into this conversation is if they win the SEC tournament. Because to do that, you presumably would have to go through two of South Carolina, Texas, and Vanderbilt.”

“Kim Mulkey doesn’t historically care much about the SEC tournament. And LSU historically hasn’t been ranked that high in the NCAA tournament. They were ranked as a three-seed even in the year they won the national title. But I don’t think they are in the Texas Vanderbilt conversation unless they emerge as an SEC champion.”

Mulkey’s LSU Tigers have a 5-4 record in Quad 1 play. This record includes wins over dominant teams like Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma. It also shows they have struggled against top-15 teams. The game against No. 3 South Carolina on February 14 was the most recent example of their slump against top-ranked teams, in which the Tigers lost 79-72.

On the other hand, two teams that could be part of the top-seed conversation include the SEC’s Vanderbilt and Texas. The Longhorns (9-3) and Commodores (7-3) have more Quad 1 wins than LSU. Moreover, these teams also have a better strength of schedule, ranking 4th and 17th in the nation, respectively.

When Quad 1 wins and the strength of schedule is factored in, either team is outclassing Kim Mulkey’s LSU. Thus, to solidify their chances of being a possible top seed, they will have to achieve a feat the program hasn’t done since 2003: win the SEC Conference tournament. Besides, they also have room to improve their regular-season record against ranked teams further.

Kim Mulkey’s Opportunity to Clinch Two More Quad 1 Wins in the 2025–26 Season

While Mulkey’s team is on a downgrade when non-conference strength of schedule is considered, it still has the opportunity to bag two more Quad 1 wins. The Tigers have two games remaining in the regular season: No. 22 Tennessee at home and No. 38 Mississippi State on the road.

Both these teams’ recent struggles of late adds to their advantage too, while facing these teams. Kim Caldwell’s team is going through a disastrous phase, with 7 defeats in its last 9 games. Mississippi State hasn’t done much better, with 5 losses in 9. On top of that, defensive struggles have plagued both sides at times this season. And LSU, which boasts the best offense in the nation, can pounce on them convincingly.

Moreover, Mulkey’s team hasn’t lost to a team ranked below No. 12 so far this season. Considering all these factors, there’s a high chance the Tigers won’t face much difficulty with these two W’s. Indeed, these wins won’t give the Tigers the kind of boost that a conference tournament title would. However, it would significantly improve their Quad 1 record this season and could keep them in the debate for the No. 1 seed.

For now, their immediate challenger will be on Friday (February 26), when they host the Lady Vols. Considering both teams’ recent form, ESPN has given the Tigers 90.3% chance of winning the game. The game is set to tip off at 6 p.m. ET at the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. What are your thoughts on this game? Can Mulkey’s team make it three W’s in a row? Do let us know in the comments.