ESPN’s Bill Connelly, when releasing his 40 most important CFB players list, pushed this Big 12 starter QB front and center. He was the first Big 12 player mentioned. Even after finishing 33rd. No offense to the champs ASU’s Sam Leavitt or anyone else. It’s the rise and improvement in his passing and running game that is causing people to notice. CBS though landed him in the stratosphere. Rising star. Not the cliché. He might just be stepping onto the same kind of launching pad that once catapulted a former Heisman winner and national champion.

That’s exactly where Chip Patterson from CBS Sports HQ went with when asked to name his must-watch breakout player for 2025. Warned not to mention mainstream Arch Manning, it turned out to be Kansas State’s Avery Johnson. “No, it’s going to be Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson. The key here is that Johnson was hyped going into last season. Kansas State a co-favorite to win the Big 12. But Johnson didn’t deliver, especially in the biggest games of the season. Johnson had too many interceptions against opponents that they needed to beat to be able to go and win the Big 12. Russ, they went five and four in the Big 12,” he said.

But Chip has a good prophecy for his rising star. “This was an incredibly disappointing performance. But maybe we were just a little bit early because may I remind you that Joe Burrow started in Ohio State. He transferred to LSU and in the 2018 season, Joe Burrow was a fine quarterback in the SEC. Avery Johnson was a fine quarterback in the Big 12. I’m not going to say Avery Johnson’s gonna have a Joe Burrow type season, but I do think it’s worth considering. You need that extra year as a starter to really reach your ceiling.”

Johnson’s résumé already has moments that could double as recruiting reel highlights. As a true freshman in 2023, he burst onto the scene with that jaw-dropping five-TDs rushing game against Texas Tech. Then came his first career start in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, where he led Kansas State to a win over NC State, showing poise in a spotlight game that felt bigger than a standard bowl outing. Those flashes made it easy to expect a full-blown breakout in 2024.

Instead, 2024 became a master class in growing pains. Avery Johnson opened strong, but the wheels came off in Provo when BYU boat-raced Kansas State 38-9. Weeks later, he sputtered against a struggling Houston squad before another letdown versus Arizona State. The raw numbers told a mixed story. Over 600 rushing yards and the kind of scrambling ability that forces defenses to account for him every snap. But he also had a completion percentage of just 58.3%.

More telling, 60% of his interceptions came in just three games, all losses. It wasn’t that Johnson disappeared. It was that his brilliance arrived in bursts, without the sustained rhythm needed to carry a contender through the grind of conference play. That’s where the Joe Burrow comparison, light as it may be, starts to take root. Like Burrow in 2018, Johnson’s first full year as a starter revealed both talent and untapped potential. The arm strength is there. The mobility is a weapon.

What’s missing is the complete merging of those skills into a consistent, week-to-week quarterbacking package. For Wildcats, that’s the fulcrum of their 2025 ceiling. A five-and-four Big 12 record last year was as much about offensive sputters in crunch moments as anything else. This fall, Avery Johnson has already hinted at personal growth. Because it’s not just his personal ambition now, it’s a program’s necessity.

With his legs already proven and his ability to extend plays unmatched in the league, even a modest uptick in accuracy and composure under pressure could flip close games into wins. Kansas State’s path back to the Big 12’s top tier might just rest on how quickly Avery Johnson transforms flashes into full games, then full seasons.

Avery Johnson knows where he needs to work on

Johnson knows growth doesn’t always come from throwing lasers downfield. It’s about reading the room, or in this case, the pocket. Speaking to reporters Wednesday, he reflected on what’s been clicking for him this offseason, especially when it comes to staying calm under pressure.

“That pocket presence and being able to find the check down,” Johnson said. “It doesn’t always need to be a 100-yard bomb or force things into tight windows. Just being able to create completions when the shots aren’t there, and then whenever we do get big shot opportunities, or I can throw a one-on-one jump ball, just trying to give my guys a chance.”

It’s a shift in thinking. A little less “hero ball,” a little more “move the chains.” Avery Johnson isn’t buying into any hot takes or quarterback narratives floating around either. For him, 2025 is about taking what’s there, cutting the turnovers, and trusting the offense to hum.

“Trying to do too much at times caused some unnecessary turnovers,” Johnson said of last season. “What we say in the quarterback room is sometimes you might get a ball tipped, might go through a guy’s hands and get tipped up in the air and get an interception, and we just say, ‘That’s the cost of doing business at the quarterback position.’ I feel like last year I had some unnecessary picks where I tried to force things and threw right to defenders, and I want to eliminate that from my game.” If K-State is to succeed in 2025, the QB needs to step up and prove to everyone that the production can match his talent.