“It sounds like he’s gonna make an announcement on Tuesday.” In the high-stakes chess match for 5-star QB Ryder Lyons, Oregon’s Dan Lanning looked to have the checkmate move lined up. Fresh off a weekend visit to Eugene, the Ducks, a program synonymous with high-flying offenses and Nike-fueled swagger, felt like the obvious choice. Lanning and his staff had been recruiting Lyons harder than anyone, with the quarterback himself admitting, “their culture is probably one of the best I’ve seen.” But don’t let this fool you from the reality. While Lanning might’ve struck QB gold before, a $10-12 million NIL armed program from the Big 12 might end up becoming Ryder Lyons’ final resting ground.

“Uh, if I have to pick, I’ll just go BYU.” On The Portal, Brian Smith’s guess for Lyons’ commitment could be the final verdict. The Cougars’ surge just makes sense. Take it from Lyons’ Folsom coach Paul Doherty. “I think he’s genuinely committed to his faith, and I think that weighs a lot at BYU. BYU is in the Big 12, and you’ve got a chance to play maybe sooner rather than later,” was what Doherty pointed out. Despite Ducks making multiple attempts and OC Will Stein growing a “really, really good” relationship with Lyons, BYU is giving the young star what he truly needs: a tailor-made ecosystem for his specific journey.

Ducks might have the 4-year business opportunity, but the Cougars are playing directly into Lyons’ LDS faith. Further, when you start taking this discussion into the field, BYU’s argument becomes even stronger. Forget the Ducks’ offense, under former pass coordinator and current OC, Aaron Roderick, the Cougars have managed to turn into a legit “Quarterback U,” churning out players like Zach Wilson, Jaren Hall, and Kedon Slovis.

And on a side note, Kalani Sitake‘s squad has been winning recruitment battles against the Ducks for 4 years straight. Be it Kingsley Suamataia, Harrisson Taggart, or McKay Madsen, this has been a hot streak that Lanning just cannot break.

Despite the $89 billion luxury, the Oregon “Nike” Ducks might just lose this battle to the blue and white camp. But while Lanning is bracing for a potential gut punch from Provo, there’s another coach in Southern California who should be feeling even worse.

Lincoln Riley’s recruitment fumble

How does a program with a head coach billed as the ultimate “QB whisperer” and the recruit’s own brother on the roster somehow fail to even make the final two? That’s the million-dollar question echoing through Southern Cal. See, USC was the fan favorite. A solid record with Caleb Williams, plus the brother connection with Ryder’s older brother, TE Walker Lyons, on the squad, should have been an unbeatable pitch.

Being a program that dominates the Southern California recruiting landscape, letting a 5-star legacy prospect from their own backyard get away without a real fight is a major red flag. This flips GM Chad Bowden‘s commitment upside down and once again proves that maybe Riley’s offensive genius and the allure of Hollywood might not be the trump card they once were.

As Oregon and BYU invested time and built deep relationships, USC seemingly faded into the background, a passive observer in a street fight for a generational talent.