The first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff opens with no matchup carrying more unease than Texas A&M hosting Miami at Kyle Field. It’s an SEC power at home against an ACC contender, catching points. That tension is exactly why ESPN’s Rece Davis believes this game is where the Hurricanes could steal a road win. 

“I’m going to take Miami—slightest of edge,” Rece Davis said on ESPN College Football on December 16. “I think the difference will be that the defensive front will be able to contain Marcel Reed, not shut him down, but keep him from destroying them, keep him from running 60 yards on a broken play. I think they will keep him from destroying them and then make him beat them from the pocket.”

Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed’s profile complicates the picture. He has thrown for 2,932 yards with 25 touchdowns, adding 466 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. Against LSU, he threw two interceptions but erased mistakes with 108 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Rece Davis believes Miami’s defensive front can limit that escape valve. Not shut him down, but contain him and force him to win from the pocket. That distinction is the heart of the upset logic.

Both Reed and Miami quarterback Carson Beck have thrown 10 interceptions this season. The difference is what happens around them. Miami’s defense is 33rd nationally with 12 interceptions, while Texas A&M opponents have thrown 62 consecutive passes without being picked off over the last two-plus games.

In its final six games, the Aggies finished minus nine in turnover margin. In its last three alone, the Aggies were minus eight. That trend is hard to ignore in a one-game elimination setting.

Among all first-round games, Texas A&M versus Miami stands apart because both teams have already shaped the playoff picture. Each beat Notre Dame, a shared opponent that missed the field partly because of those losses.

The Hurricanes arrive as 3.5-point underdogs, per DraftKings Sportsbook, despite facing an Aggies team that spent most of the season undefeated under first-year head coach Mike Elko. Their season arc explains the skepticism. 

Texas A&M vs Miami ahead of CFP R1

Texas A&M were unbeaten until the regular-season finale, a 27-17 loss to Texas that snapped momentum at the worst possible time. For much of the year, the Aggies started slow and finished fast, overpowering teams late. Against the Longhorns, they failed, and the loss lingered.

No team wants to enter the playoffs carrying unanswered questions, especially when hosting a hungry opponent with nothing to lose.

Miami’s path here looks different. After two losses in three games, the Hurricanes closed the season with four straight wins, capped by a 38-7 blowout of No. 22 Pitt. Beck’s four-interception game against Louisville and two more against SMU show vulnerability, but those also came against elite takeaway units.

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The Canes finished the regular season 12th nationally with a plus-nine turnover margin. Texas A&M finished 113th at minus-seven. Their defense sits 130th nationally with just three interceptions in 2025.

Texas A&M is the better team on paper, with the higher-rated QB and the advantage of Kyle Field. But Rece Davis’ point lingers. At some stage, someone has to prove they are elite.

This game will decide whether the Aggies’ season continues as expected, or whether Miami forces the playoff’s first hard upset.