This weekend, the Tennessee Vols travel to Starkville to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Tennessee is 3-1 after a close overtime loss to Georgia. On the flip side, Jeff Lebby’s Mississippi State is running high, undefeated at 4-0, and begins its SEC season with high hopes. Mississippi State, in Lebby’s first season, fell behind early. They fought to stay in the games, but each of their eight conference matchups ended in double-digit losses, and they never took the lead or tied in any SEC second half. And what about this season? Looks like someone is not convinced about Mississippi State hitting the bull’s eye. 

Lance Taylor came up with a mixed review of Lebby’s squad. This might be surprising. After all, there is a new belief altogether for Mississippi State. While the Bulldogs aren’t likely SEC contenders, given just one winning conference season this century, they won’t be the easy beatdown they were in 2024. All eight of MSU’s remaining games come against SEC opponents, with their first opportunity to make a statement coming against Josh Heupel’s squad. 

On The Next Round podcast, Taylor said, “Because we knew they would be improved with Blake Shapen and the quarterback offensively, they had to go off. But this defense is only giving up 11.7 points per game, and they completely shut down Arizona State’s offense.” He gives full marks to Lebby’s offense, thanks to their quarterback, Blake Shapen. Their defense proved to be strong, cornering Arizona State’s offense. But Taylor then addressed the elephant in the room: “I think they can win, I don’t think they will win, and I don’t think they’re going to win another game this year.”

Justification for singling out Lebby’s program? Mississippi State has a top-tier scoring offense ranking at No. 30, along with a top-20 scoring defense. However, it looks like the real test awaits Lebby’s boys since their wins outside the Arizona State matchup haven’t been over highly ranked opponents. They have sealed victories against cupcake programs like Alcorn State and Northern IL. 

Now this might be heartbreaking for Lebby. After all, Mississippi State must have been seeing a silver lining. This time last year, their quarterback, Shapen, suffered a season-ending fractured shoulder blade that forced true freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. into the starting role for the final eight games. But this year, he looks fit and fine. Lebby’s starter has been successful in driving the ball downfield to receivers Brenen Thompson, Anthony Evans III, and Jordan Mosley. However, the program’s biggest speedbreaker will be Josh Heupel’s key record. 

Josh Heupel stands with a speedbreaker for Jeff Lebby 

The knock on Heupel’s Vols is that they can’t win on the road. But it’s too early for Lebby to count on it and treat it as an advantage. That’s because the narrative doesn’t hold up under the microscope. Sure, Tennessee has stumbled against unranked foes. To count on the big mishaps are South Carolina in 2022, Florida in 2023, and Arkansas in 2024.

But that’s part of the course in the SEC, where the average team has suffered the same number of upsets away from home. The difference? Heupel’s overall road résumé actually outpaces much of the league, making the “bad road team” label more myth than reality. 

Since Heupel took over in 2021, Tennessee has quietly held its own on the road. The Vols’ 7-9 mark in SEC road games may not sound flashy, but only four teams in the conference have managed more wins in that span, a solid showing compared to much of the league. Road wins aren’t easy in the SEC: teams hit at 41%, while Tennessee under Heupel is a tick better at 44%. What does that mean?

Jeff Lebby will hit a blow in his road to proving Dan Mullen wrong. The former Mississippi State head coach took a sharp jab at Lebby in a conversation with the CBS Sports reporter, Brandon Marcello, who said he liked covering the Bulldogs program earlier because of their winning culture. Without taking Lebby’s name, Mullen shared, “If you take a program that has kind of lost for a while and you continue to lose there, there’s not much of a story there… there are probably some similarities to hear where they haven’t won a whole lot in the past, right?” Eyes are on Lebby and co. to see if they can break through the barrier and seal the deal against Tennessee.