Josh Heupel had just led Tennessee to their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance, with five-star talent Nico Iamaleava at quarterback and a defense ranked top 10 in the nation. On paper, it looked like the Vols were stepping into a new era of Big Orange. Hopes were high—talk of championships, parades, maybe another playoff run in 2025. But just as the dream started to take shape… it unraveled. Nico left. Four million dollars later, he vanished from Knoxville and resurfaced in sunny UCLA. And ever since? It’s been nothing but instability for Tennessee football.

Joey Aguilar might’ve pulled the reverse Uno card and landed in Rocky Top, but Vegas already told on Tennessee—FanDuel has the Vols’ win total at 8.5. ESPN didn’t even get them in the Top 25. And college football analysts? Yeah, they’re throwing shade left and right. Just ask Joe DeLeon. “Blake, to be very direct, I don’t think that this team is a playoff team in 2025,” he said on his podcast with Blake Ruffino. “I feel as though that the Nico situation is going to be such an awful anchor that could hold this team back. And what I mean is not that Nico was the key piece, was the key missing piece to this team getting over—because his performance last year, as we discussed after that whole saga, was incredibly disappointing. Incredibly disappointing. He held them back in some instances.” 

That’s a painful gut punch. But if we’re being honest? That Vols’ pound-for-pound defence carried Nico to the playoffs, and DeLeone might be onto something.

Nico’s stats last year were impressive on the surface: 2,616 yards, 19 tuddies, and just five picks. But eight of those touchdowns came against UTEP and Vanderbilt, aka the SEC’s practice dummies. His performance against Ohio State in the CFP? Let’s just say…he played like a JUCO QB. 14-of-31 for 104 yards, no scores, and vibes so off it felt like a scrimmage gone wrong. Then there’s the Arkansas game, where he capped a meh 158-yard night by running outta bounds on the final play.

But now Tennessee’s running it back with Joey Aguilar, and yeah, the man’s got juice. DeLeone kept it real: “I think that with this quick of a turnaround—trying to figure out who your quarterback is, if Joey Aguilar is the guy—and building your team around him and taking off and ignoring all the drama, I feel like with everything that’s happened, there’s just such a short window for them to be able to find success, knowing all of the massive pieces that they lost last year, especially defensively, to the 2025 draft.”

His 2023 stat line was video game-tier—3,757 yards, 33 touchdowns—but those 10 picks and 11 fumbles? Not exactly SEC-approved. 2024 was a little more grounded: 3,003 yards, 23 TDs, 14 picks. He learned to chill with the ball—only three fumbles—but 24 interceptions and 14 fumbles over two seasons? Against SEC defenses? Man better pack a prayer circle.

They did score a dub by landing five-star tackle David Sanders Jr. to protect Joey’s blindside. Sanders can be a day-one problem for edge rushers. But defensively? Tennessee got gutted. First-round freak James Pearce Jr. gone. Second-round brawler Omarr Norman-Lott gone. Both were nightmares for opposing O-lines. And yet…the Vols still bring back some talents on defense—Jermod McCoy, Will Brooks, and yep, still James Pearce Jr. Weird, but we’ll roll with it.

Still, let’s be real. This squad might claw its way to 8 or 9 wins, but another playoff? That feels like wishful thinking. Too much chaos. Too little stability. And Joey Aguilar, for all his flash, isn’t exactly a trust fall just yet.

NFL coaches keep it real about Josh Heupel’s offense and system

Now here’s where things get extra spicy—NFL coaches are not vibing with Josh Heupel’s offense. These are actual NFL head coaches basically saying, ‘Good luck, son.’

Start with Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans HC. The man pulled no punches. “There’s just a different style of play [in the NFL],” he said. “In college football, it’s a lot more of seeing guys come open. In the NFL, you better go long before that spot comes open or the ball is gonna get picked.”

Translation? Heupel’s system—full of wide splits, tempo, and predetermined throws—is baby food compared to the NFL buffet. Callahan basically said Tennessee QBs are out here playing checkers while NFL defenses play 4D chess. Then he named names: “Especially when you talk about, for example, Tennessee, right? The University of Tennessee. That’s spread out, that system.” 

The system is almost alien to what NFL offenses demand. Quick reads? Not really. Pro-style verbiage? Nope. Making multiple reads and throwing with anticipation? Good luck. And that’s why guys like Joe Milton can rocket a ball 80 yards but still sit confused when asked to ID a Mike linebacker on Sundays.

And just when you thought it couldn’t get worse, Cowboys OC Brian Schottenheimer stepped in with the killshot. While answering a throwaway question about Joe Milton, he dropped this gem: “The system that he came from in Tennessee created some challenges in terms of what he has to learn.” Yikes. That right there is the exact kind of ammo opposing coaches use in living rooms during recruiting season. You don’t wanna go to Tennessee, they’ll say. You’ll put up flashy numbers, sure, but you won’t be NFL-ready. And until a Tennessee QB thrives in the league under Heupel’s system? That stigma ain’t going away.

Even Pete Carroll chimed in earlier this offseason with subtle jabs at college offenses that don’t translate—and guess who keeps getting lumped into that convo? Yep. Josh Heupel. Heupel might be a mad genius in college. His offense is perfectly designed to torch college defenses and mask flaws. But for NFL scouts and coaches trying to project QBs like Nico or Joe Milton? No comment. No wonder you see Vols QBs on the bench on Sundays.

And that’s the heart of the Vols’ problem. They’ve built a system that dominates Saturdays but raises eyebrows on Sundays. It’s a recruiting flex, but not a development pipeline. Until that changes—or until Heupel adjusts his scheme—it’s gonna be the elephant in the room. And in 2025? That elephant might just stomp out Tennessee’s playoff hopes before October.

So yeah, Tennessee’s still dangerous. They’ll hang 45 on a few poor souls. But playoff team? Nah. Not with Aguilar’s pick party, not with Josh Heupel’s microwave offense, and definitely not with NFL coaches side-eyeing every QB that comes outta Rocky Top.

The Vols might run fast… but this isn’t Mario Kart. This is the SEC. And these Ls? They don’t come with blue shells. They come with smoke.