The playoff race in the Big Ten is heating up. For Michigan, winning its final two games is crucial to even having a chance at securing a playoff spot. This obviously includes a must-win showdown against rival Ohio State to end the season. However, analyst Kirk Herbstreit believes the Wolverines could still miss the playoffs even if they win The Game.

With Indiana and OSU poised for the conference championship, Michigan contends with USC and Oregon to secure the third spot. HC Sherrone Moore has a road game against Maryland in Week 13 before taking on Ohio State in the final game of the season. But Kirk Herbstreit and Joey Galloway point out that even with a win against those two teams, it will not guarantee a playoff spot. The reason? The Trojans have a better head-to-head record against Michigan.

“USC has run the table, which would then mean that they have a win over Oregon, and Michigan runs the table, and they have a win over Ohio State. USC would have to get the nod in that situation because of the head-to-head.” Joey Galloway said, agreeing with Herbstreit, on the November 17th episode of the show.

It would mean that the Trojans will have a winning head-to-head against both contenders, Oregon and Michigan. So, Sherrone Moore will have to pray that the Ducks claim a victory at Autzen for his side to qualify. However, he would still have to beat Ohio State, which in itself is a monumental task. Kirk Herbstreit added to Galloway’s three-way race, saying that if the results go the other way around, the playoff contention would get more interesting.

“If Oregon were to win out and beat USC, and eliminate USC, and Michigan were to beat Ohio State, by the way, that’s obviously a massive ask for them. But if they did beat Ohio State, and they’re 10 and two, would you take Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, and Michigan? That’s four from the Big 10.” Herbstreit said on the podcast.

However, only the top three would qualify for the playoffs. So, depending on the results of the Oregon-USC game, the last place for the playoff qualification will be decided.

Week 13 results will decide the fate of three B1G teams

It wouldn’t be college football if the playoff fate didn’t come down to the final two games of the season. In the Big Ten, the race is even tighter, with every result shaping which team earns a playoff berth. Michigan, Oregon, and USC are locked in a three-way tie for the third playoff spot. USC and Oregon hold the power to decide how the qualification race unfolds, as their matchup carries massive implications not only for themselves but for the Michigan Wolverines as well.

For HC Lincoln Riley, a win against Oregon at Autzen will mean everything. He will need QB Jayden Maiava to replicate his game against Iowa, where he posted a 71.9% completion rate for 254 yards and 1 TD against the Hawkeyes. If the Trojans manage to win the game, it will clear up a straight path for them towards the playoffs, much to Oregon and Michigan’s dismay.

Sherrone Moore and the Michigan fanbase will be praying that Ducks HC Dan Lanning comes up with a plan to stop the Trojans from taking away that third spot.