For Lincoln Riley and Matt Rhule, the grace period is over. Despite rebuilding efforts at USC and Nebraska, a new ranking has officially put both coaches on the hot seat, turning the 2026 season into a do-or-die campaign. The Sunday-released top-5 Big Ten head coaches under the most pressure list indicates that Riley and Rhule have a tough season ahead.

According to Jon “JR” Rhoades’s ranking, the Trojans’ head coach, Lincoln Riley, is at No. 3, and the Cornhuskers’ head coach, Matt Rhule, is at No. 5 on that list. Like last season’s coaching carousel, if the 2026 season ends on a sour note, both coaches could see the door.

However, that doesn’t mean Riley has no contribution to USC’s rise. Since joining in 2022, the coach led the Trojans to an 11-3 season, and although they missed a CFP appearance by just one loss to Utah in the Pac-12 title game, they had a Heisman winner in Caleb Williams.

After a promising 11-3 start in 2022, Riley’s tenure has been a story of regression, with the Trojans failing to recapture that initial success and missing the CFP each year. The USC HC is under immense pressure due to the estimated $90 million buyout clause that tethers the program to him financially. Matt Rhule faces a similar predicament at Nebraska, where early struggles have also tested the fanbase’s patience after signing a lucrative contract, extending his stay with the Cornhuskers through 2032.

From a 5-7 debut season in 2023, Rhule led the Huskers to a 7-6 2024 season with a Pinstripe Bowl win, but the following season, Nebraska ended 7-6 once again. Given that both coaches have spent considerable time in their respective programs, there will be no one else or any previous regime to blame if the upcoming season turns out to be underwhelming.

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But they could save their future, as both have the potential to make their 2026 season count. Rhule’s successful tenures at Temple and Baylor, followed by a stint in the NFL, backed that up, as did Riley’s five seasons at Oklahoma. The pressure on Rhule is amplified by a brutal schedule, as Nebraska faces the 8th toughest slate in the Big Ten.

Meanwhile, Riley is entering his fifth season with USC with a little hope, as its 2026 schedule’s conference difficulty rank is moderate, approximately 11th easiest.

Lincoln Riley’s 2026 season may show some brilliance

Although the Trojans started well in 2025, they missed the CFP ranking, finishing 16th in the final list. So, this season, they will put all effort into making that happen, and according to Greg McElroy, there is a solid possibility. The analyst said on Always College Football.

“This 2026 Trojan team, I think, has a chance. I really do,” he said.

McElroy pointed to intriguing 35–1 title odds and a roster that finally looks molded in Lincoln Riley’s full image. Still, the skepticism lingers after a 9–4 campaign and a physical setback against Notre Dame. However, in 2026 USC would not face the Irish. Among heavy opponents, the Trojans have to face Oregon, OSU, and Washington.

If Riley’s team is able to win those few games, they could be a legitimate title contender for the upcoming season. On the flip side, Rhule’s team focuses on bowl eligibility as per early predictions because of their tough 2026 schedule. With massive investments made in both programs, both coaches are entering a make-or-break season where anything less than a playoff berth could mean the end of their tenures. Do you agree? Let us know in the comments.