No. 9 Alabama, sitting at 10-3, travels to Norman to face No. 8 Oklahoma at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Oddsmakers have HC Kalen DeBoer’s team favored by 1.5 points in this CFP first round. But a former Green Bay Packers legend is confident that the Sooners match up better, pointing out the Tide’s woes come from their own second-half season decline.

“In the second half this season, Alabama’s only 39% on third downs, where they’re 50% in the first half,” Aaron Taylor said during his CBS Sports segment on December 9.

He followed with an even more concerning data point. In their three toughest defensive tests, two against Georgia and one against Oklahoma, the Tide scored only 14 total points after halftime. Their first win against HC Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs was a close 24-21 win. Then their OU loss came with another close 23-21 heartbreak. And the last game was an embarrassing 28-7 retaliation from UGA. 

“The bottom line is, against elite defenses, Alabama’s getting out-coached, they’re getting out-played, and I believe that happens again when they play Oklahoma.” Taylor added.

Alabama was once a program that measured itself against championship standards under Nick Saban. So, having a national analyst characterize them as predictable and outmatched is a direct indictment of Kalen DeBoer’s trajectory. And this comes at the worst possible moment for a team entering the playoff on a downward curve. The Tide arrives with no momentum after its 19-point loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. 

Kalen DeBoer’s offense produced only 209 total yards, finished with negative rushing yardage, and converted just 3 of 13 third downs. That performance was not a one-week anomaly either. The Tide haven’t played a clean game since October. Their last season losses to Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and this year to Florida State, Oklahoma again, and now Georgia underline the fact that this roster has regressed over time, not improved. 

QB Ty Simpson acknowledged the offense’s communication and execution issues. 

“They did a good job of bringing some pressures,” he said. “They played tight coverage. Got to make some throws, some catches, got to do the little things right.” 

Wideout Germie Bernard added that they need to “execute better on offense” and they “just have to be better.” And there’s urgency in that as the numbers show such a stark imbalance.

Brent Venables’ 5th-ranked rushing defense (81.4 yards allowed per game) faces Kalen DeBoer’s 117th-ranked rushing offense (116.2 yards). Alabama averages only 3.6 yards per carry while Oklahoma allows just 2.5. On paper, the mismatch favors the Sooners. And it already proved decisive once this season. Before this playoff meeting, the Tide already learned what happens when the Sooners dictate field position and pressure the QB.

Where Kalen DeBoer’s team went wrong in the last Oklahoma game

Oklahoma’s 23-21 win at Bryant-Denny Stadium in November showcased the fault lines that continue to define Alabama’s season. Eli Bowen’s 87-yard interception return became one of only two Oklahoma touchdowns, and it happened because Alabama’s offense repeatedly created short fields for the Sooners. And it only escalated from there.

Two second-quarter sequences captured the entire afternoon. Ryan Williams fumbled a punt at the Alabama 31, leading to an immediate touchdown. Later, with the Tide leading by one, Taylor Wein strip-sacked Ty Simpson, setting up the game-winning field goal. They finished minus-three in turnover margin. Kalen DeBoer should learn from these costly turnovers. 

Special teams compounded the issues with a 42-yard punt return allowed on the opening series and a missed 36-yard field goal before halftime from Conor Talty after a high snap. Those errors directly influenced the scoreboard. Then came the pass protection breakdowns. Alabama allowed four sacks and eight pressures. When Ty Simpson was kept clean, he completed 24 of 36 for 284 yards. Under pressure, he produced only 35 yards and threw the game-changing interception. And Oklahoma’s front will test that protection again.

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A third loss to Oklahoma in the DeBoer era would signal more than a disappointing playoff exit. It would confirm a widening gap between Alabama’s expectations and its current reality. And that is exactly the outcome Aaron Taylor believes is on the way.