The disappointment from Alabama’s stunning 23-21 home loss to Oklahoma is shocking. The Crimson Tide dominated nearly every statistical category yet somehow found themselves on the wrong end of the scoreboard when the final whistle blew. But as Alabama fans nurse their wounds and contemplate what this means for their College Football Playoff hopes, Paul Finebaum is sounding an alarm about a trap game that could derail everything.

Paul Finebaum offered a warning on SportsCenter that should send chills down the spine of every Alabama fan. “Let me just offer a little bit of caution before we put Alabama in there, Heather, and I think you know where I’m going here,” Finebaum said. “Alabama has a game in two weeks at Auburn. And I’m not a historian, but I’ll give you some history. Four years ago down there, Alabama needed four overtimes to win.” 

He’s talking about the 2021 Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium, where No. 3 Alabama trailed 10-0 late in the fourth quarter before Bryce Young engineered a 97-yard touchdown drive with 24 seconds left to force overtime. The game went to quadruple overtime before Alabama finally escaped with a 24-22 victory, and that was against an Auburn team that finished 6-7.​

Paul Finebaum wasn’t done making his case. “Two years ago, Alabama needed what’s called the gravedigger play. Fourth and 32 in Nick Saban’s final year,” he continued. He was referencing one of the most improbable plays in Iron Bowl history. “Teams are different, but the Auburn team down there is just about as bad as it has been, and the Alabama team is as good as it has been, and that is the problem,” Paul Finebaum said. “Alabama never plays well down there. So that is really something to keep your eye on as we move forward.”​​

The numbers back up Finebaum’s concern in ways that should terrify Alabama fans. This Auburn team is an absolute disaster. They are 4-6 overall, 1-6 in the SEC, already fired head coach Hugh Freeze after three dismal seasons, and are now being led by interim coach DJ Durkin. They’re the favorites against nobody. Yet history suggests none of that matters when Alabama travels to Jordan-Hare Stadium. 

The Crimson Tide has consistently struggled in hostile territory against Auburn regardless of talent disparity. And this year’s Alabama team has shown a disturbing pattern under DeBoer. According to CBS Sports, it’s the fifth time in DeBoer’s last two seasons that the Tide have coughed up three or more turnovers, directly resulting in three of his six losses. 

Against Florida State in the season opener, three turnovers led to a 31-17 defeat. Saturday’s three giveaways against Oklahoma produced the same result. If Alabama can’t protect the football at home against a decent Oklahoma team, what happens in the chaos and emotion of the Iron Bowl with an interim coach trying to save his job and Auburn players with nothing to lose?​

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Alabama still controls its path to the SEC Championship Game. Beat Auburn, and they’re in Atlanta. Win the SEC, and they’re almost certainly hosting a first-round College Football Playoff game. But lose to Auburn, and suddenly the Crimson Tide is sitting at 8-3 with losses to their biggest rival, watching the playoff selection show. They’ll be sweating on whether they’ll even make the 12-team field. 

DeBoer’s disappointment and the turnover battle

Kalen DeBoer had no words in his postgame press conference. But whenever he spoke, you could hear the frustration. “Just really disappointed in the outcome,” DeBoer said. “We played a lot of great snaps out there, but the turnover battle, obviously, we got killed there and that became the game.” The numbers back up his assessment in brutal fashion. Alabama outgained Oklahoma 406 yards to 212, nearly doubled them in total offense, and dominated time of possession. Ty Simpson threw for 326 yards compared to Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer’s 138. 

Yet somehow, some way, the Crimson Tide walked off its home field with a loss. The reason was simple and devastating: three turnovers that led directly to 17 Oklahoma points. I included Eli Bowen’s 87-yard pick-six in the first quarter and two fumbles by Simpson that gave the Sooners short fields to work with.​​

What made the loss particularly painful for DeBoer was how uncharacteristic it felt for a team that had been taking care of the football all season. “We’ve done a great job of taking care of it. We’ve done a good job of taking it off of teams,” he said, referencing Alabama’s plus-10 turnover margin entering the game compared to Oklahoma’s minus-5. 

The Crimson Tide had been winning the turnover battle all year, and suddenly, they coughed it up three times in the biggest home game of the season. It was DeBoer’s first home loss at Bryant-Denny Stadium and Alabama’s second consecutive loss to Oklahoma in as many years. And the coach knew his team had essentially beaten themselves. When you win nearly every statistical category but lose the turnover battle 3-0, there’s no one else to blame.​