Alabama Crimson Tides’ playoff path just got a whole lot bumpier after a two-point loss (23-21) to Oklahoma. The CFP committee dropped them six spots to No. 10. With that, Kalen DeBoer and his team are still inside the 12-team cutoff, but the view isn’t as good as before, and it brings new pressure. The Tide wouldn’t be lounging with a first-round bye if the season ended with this rank. Here’s where ESPN’s Mike Rodak laid out the Tide’s real playoff chances.

For Kalen DeBoer and his team, the rule was like, beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and you’re in, while the SEC title game was bonus points, but suddenly, nothing feels guaranteed. After Tuesday’s CFP rankings, Alabama sits at No. 9 on ESPN’s playoff probability list at 62.9%, just behind Notre Dame at 75%. Now, it indicates the path is quite difficult for the Tide unless they win the SEC.

As the rules give automatic spots to the five highest-ranked conference champions, No. 11 and No. 12 are locked up. On the Crimson Tide’s heels sits BYU at No. 11, the first team out. Win out, and they’ll likely meet Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. If BYU knocks off Texas Tech, that’s the kind of chaos that could shove Alabama straight out of the bracket. Because if that happens, BYU jumps in automatically as the Big 12 champ.

That would force a wild question: Would Texas Tech fall from No. 5 all the way out of the playoff, opening the door for a three-loss Alabama runner-up? It feels like a long shot. While Bama’s first home game since the 2023 season came at a costly price, here ESPN’s Roddy Jones and Sam Acho broke down the reason behind that drop in ranking.

Just last week, Alabama was No. 4 in the country. But after a narrow loss at home to Oklahoma, they tumbled to No. 10, while analysts noted that Bama outgained the Sooners by nearly 200 yards.

Agreeing with Jones’ reasoning for Alabama’s drop for that season-opening loss even surprised Acho too. “The loss of Florida State and we won black, people would argue, including me, that’s a different Florida State team. That was a different Alabama team….. So I was surprised that loss got taken so much into account and Alabama dropped as far as they did.”

While FSU is now 5-5 this season, Alabama’s 31-17 loss to them seems to explain the Tide’s drop, even placing the Tide one spot behind Notre Dame despite identical records. As CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek said, “Alabama obviously has the two-point loss at home last week to Oklahoma, but they have that loss, 31-17, at the beginning of the season at Florida State, a team that’s now 5-5. Florida State was up in that game 24-7.”

Despite eight wins this season, including a 24-21 victory at Georgia, that FSU loss has weighed heavily, even with Alabama’s strong schedule. Still, there is hope for Alabama to stay in the playoff race. But how did the Alabama Crimson Tide perform before the arrival of Kalen DeBoer?

Alabama Crimson Tides before the Kalen DeBoer era

For more than a decade, the Crimson Tides were coached by Nick Saban. He began his journey with the Alabama team in 2007. His first season ended with a 7-6 record. But the next season, the Tides had a dominant performance, ending the ’08 season with a 12-2 record. In 2009, Saban and his team had a flawless season. From that point on, the team has been ranked within the top 10. Saban’s final season, the team had a 12-2 record, with them standing at the 6th position, with yet another 8-0 Conference record.

Saban left the Crimson Tides after the 2023 season. DeBoer was the replacement, but the Tides’ performance dropped by a mile. They dropped from the 6th rank in 2023 to the 28th at the end of the 2024 season.

Although DeBoer has not had the start to his career like Nick Saban, he still does have a chance to help his team have a playoff run with the SEC championship game. Can DeBoer and his squad make a comeback?