James Cook’s rapid rise with the Buffalo Bills has turned heads over the past two seasons. The breakout running back shocked the league in 2024 by surpassing 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight year—a feat he padded in Week 18 with a final burst. His league-high touchdown tally also surprised many, especially considering quarterback Josh Allen’s heavy red-zone presence. But now, entering a contract standoff in 2025, Cook’s once-stable trajectory is suddenly under threat.

Cook leads all 2022 draftees in career rushing yards, totaling 2,638 yards across his first three seasons. Bills running backs coach Kelly Skipper praised the transformation, saying Cook’s “whole game came together.” The team’s strategic deployment—shielding him from overuse while placing him in high-leverage roles—yielded remarkable production. But with training camps kicking off, that formula may be in jeopardy.

In a recent episode of Locked On Bills, host Joe Marino and guest Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points zeroed in on Cook’s unique usage. Barrett explained that Cook “played on fewer than 50% of the team’s snaps,” yet still finished as a top-15 fantasy RB. Only one other back in the past five years has managed that. The conclusion? Either Cook is an outlier, or his numbers are dangerously inflated. “There’s only ever been one other running back over the last five years to finish top 15 in fantasy points per game with a snap share below 49%,” said Barrett.

That stat frames Cook as a rare asset—but also as someone whose value is deeply tied to Buffalo’s specific system. And it raises a brutal question: Would Cook thrive elsewhere?

No one doubts Cook’s raw tools—he’s explosive, elusive, and punishing in space. But what makes him a game-changer in Buffalo might not translate in a new scheme. Barrett didn’t mince words: “I think this is the perfect place for him… It’s hard to imagine him performing much better anywhere else.”

Even Marino acknowledged the tightrope Cook walks between talent and fit. “James Cook is going to be one of the biggest case studies talked about for years.”

Now, just as Cook seemed ready to enter his prime, off-field tension has crept in. Reports indicate a contract standoff between Cook and the Bills’ front office, clouding his future with the franchise that unlocked his potential.

Contract impasse could derail Cook’s momentum

While Cook’s stats suggest star-level performance, his (abnormally high) efficiency raises concerns. Barrett called out Cook’s touchdown success as potentially fluky. “Touchdown efficiency is really more luck than anything else. He was the most efficient touchdown scorer by XTD… Now he’s due for a negative regression.”

That volatility has made the Bills cautious. At the same time, their growing investment in rookie Ray Davis could be a signal. Barrett noted, “I think the team likes Ray Davis.” A changing backfield dynamic could devalue Cook—unless he steps into a larger, more sustainable role. “Maybe instead of a 48% snap share, he gets a 75% this year. Yeah, he could break leagues,” Barrett added, leaving the door open for growth—if he stays.

Meanwhile, contract talks remain unresolved. But there’s a sliver of optimism. ESPN insider Jeremy Fowler reported “the door is still open,” noting that both sides have time to work things out, even if a deal doesn’t materialize before camp. “However it works out, it works out,” Cook told reporters, striking a hopeful but noncommittal tone.

Cook’s numbers back his value: 207 carries, 1,009 rushing yards, 16 rushing touchdowns, and 32 receptions for 258 yards in 2024. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry and remained a central figure in both the run and pass game. Losing him would place more pressure on Josh Allen—and potentially destabilize the Bills’ offense just as it retools for a deep playoff run.

Still, as Marino and Barrett both emphasized, Cook’s brilliance exists within Buffalo’s ecosystem. Outside of it? He may not find the same efficiency, opportunity, or scheme support. His breakout year didn’t just elevate his profile—it exposed how context-dependent that success really was.

Now, with his contract hanging in the balance, James Cook stands at a crossroads. One path leads to continued growth in Buffalo. The other? A risk-filled gamble into the unknown, where all the traits that made him shine may not be enough.