The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills kick off the NFL Week 12 slate with a Thursday Night Texas in the Lone Star State. The main storyline coming into this game is, which side will win, Houston’s defense or Buffalo’s offense? The Texans have the best defense in football, but when the Bills are rolling, they’re near impossible to stop.

This game will have a ton of fantasy implications. Guys like Josh Allen, James Cook and Nico Collins were picked in the first two or three rounds of fantasy drafts this year, so there will be plenty of stars on the field on Thursday night.

Making sure you get your lineup right before TNF is important, which is why I’ll be breaking down the game and giving you my best starts and sits of Thursday.

Fantasy Breakdown

Before we get into the start, sit recommendations. Here’s a table breaking down how many points each team gives up to each position group, and where that ranks across the league.

Note: 32nd means they give up the most points. 1st means they give up the fewest points.

So what does this table mean?

Both of these defenses are pretty dang good. The Texans don’t really have a weakness anywhere defensively, but their offense hasn’t been great, so starting opposing defenses against them is typically a good idea. The Bills are very good against the pass, but have struggled greatly defending the run. Their offense has, obviously, been very good, so starting opposing defenses against them has not worked out in the past.

Best Starts

Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans

Woody Marks has been my favorite underrated start of the week. I know he’s been playing well recently, but he’s only being started in 65 percent of Sleeper leagues. That needs to be closer to 90 percent by the start of this game. The Bills have given up 40.5 points to De’Von Achane and 34.0 points to Sean Tucker in their last two games. I’m not saying Marks will get you 30+, but he should have a lot of success against Buffalo on TNF. He’s my RB9 overall this week.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

James Cook is one of the best running backs in football. Buffalo’s offense is 10x better when he’s playing well than when he’s a non-factor. I know Houston has an extremely tough defense, but if they’ve been susceptible anywhere, it’s been against the run. I expect the Bills to try to get Cook rolling early and often, even if it’s through the air rather than on the ground. They need him to play well, so they’re going to force-feed him on Thursday.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans

The Bills have been very good at defending opposing wideouts this season, but Nico Collins should still have a great game. In his two games with Davis Mills under center (who will be starting again this week), Collins has scored 22.6 and 24.2 points – his two highest point totals of the season. Backup quarterbacks love to feed their star wide receivers because they know they can make them look better. I expect Collins to see 10+ targets on TNF, so he should have another big game.

Buffalo Defense

The Texans’ offense isn’t good. There’s really no way around it. They’re averaging 22.0 points per game, but that’s heavily inflated by a 44-point and 36-point performances against two bad defenses. Take those two out and they’re averaging just 17.5 points, which would rank 28th in the league. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been great in fantasy, but I don’t expect them to give up more than 14-17 points in this game, so they’re a start for me.

Best Sits

Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans

Dalton Schultz has been really good with Mills at quarterback. He’s averaging about 15 points per game since Mills took over as the starter, but this week he faces a Buffalo defense that allows just six points per game to opposing tight ends. He may be a tempting start this week, but I’d avoid him.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills

Khalil Shakir is being started in 57 percent of Sleeper leagues, but I’d avoid him at all costs this week. Houston’s defense is great against the pass, and with Derek Stingley likely following him around most of the game, I just don’t see him getting open all that often. He is Buffalo’s top dog, so he’s going to get targets, but I don’t think he has a high ceiling this week.

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Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills

With Dalton Kincaid out, it may be tempting to start Dawson Knox this week, but I’d look for other options. Not only has Knox not been playing well, but Houston’s defense gives up the fifth-fewest points to opposing tight ends this season. The Bills are going to have issues with their passing attack on TNF, and I don’t see Knox being the one that breakouts and has a big game.