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SUPER BOWL XXXVI Feb 3, 2002 New Orleans, LA, USA FILE PHOTO New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady 12 in action against the St. Louis Rams during Super Bowl XXXVI at the Superdome. The Patriots defeated the Rams 20-17 and Brady was named the games most valuable player. New Orleans Louisiana UNITED STATES, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xUSAxTODAYxSportsx 4817974

Imago
SUPER BOWL XXXVI Feb 3, 2002 New Orleans, LA, USA FILE PHOTO New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady 12 in action against the St. Louis Rams during Super Bowl XXXVI at the Superdome. The Patriots defeated the Rams 20-17 and Brady was named the games most valuable player. New Orleans Louisiana UNITED STATES, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xUSAxTODAYxSportsx 4817974
We are one week away from Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. Right now, the Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites over the Patriots, which is a pretty big spread for the Super Bowl, especially in recent history, but it’s nothing that hasn’t been overcome before.
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In the 60-game history of the Super Bowl, a total of 34 games have had a spread of 4.5 or more points. In those games, the underdogs are 10-24 straight up, but those numbers change a bit since the start of the 21st century. Since 2000, there have been 26 Super Bowls. 11 of those 26 have seen a spread of 4.5 points or more, but the underdogs are 6-5 in those games straight up. To further that point, teams that are exactly 4.5-point underdogs are 4-1 all-time.
If the Patriots were to upset the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, it would be tied for the seventh-largest upset in terms of point spread in Super Bowl history. Today, we’re going to look back at the 10 biggest upsets the Big Game has ever seen.
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All odds via Opta Analyst.
1. 1968 New York Jets (+18) vs Baltimore Colts

Reuters
Former New York Jets quarterback Joe Namath points to his championship ring before the Seattle Seahawks play the Denver Broncos in the NFL Super Bowl XLVIII football game in East Rutherford, New Jersey, February 2, 2014. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
The 1968-1968 Super Bowl is famous for the Joe Namath guarantee. Despite being 18-point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts, Namath guaranteed fans that the New York Jets would win Super Bowl III. As I’m sure most of you know, he delivered on that promise.
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The Colts were 15-1 entering this game, while the Jets were 12-3. Both teams were very good, but the Colts were viewed as this unstoppable force, but the Jets’ defense delivered, holding Baltimore to seven points while Namath led New York to 16 points. Namath was named MVP of the game with 206 yards, even though he didn’t record a single touchdown.
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This was, and still is, the biggest upset in Super Bowl history, and it’s crazy it happened in just the third Super Bowl ever.
2. 2001 Patriots (+14) vs St. Louis Rams
The 2001 New England Patriots had no business being in the Super Bowl. They had to start a random sixth-round quarterback by the name of Tom Brady after Drew Bledsoe got hurt early in the year, and he led them all the way to the Super Bowl. But even once they got there, nobody gave them a chance.
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The Patriots had to go up against the Greatest Show on Turf, who were looking to win their second Super Bowl in three years. Kurt Warner and Co. were 14-point favorites, but the Patriots got out to a 17-3 lead, which quickly dissipated. With 1:21 and no timeouts, Brady led the Patriots on a 53-yard drive to set up a 48-yard field goal as time expired to win the Patriots their first of six Super Bowls.
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This is the game that kick-started Brady’s legend, and it’s only fitting that it’s the second-largest upset in Super Bowl history.
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3. 2007 Giants (+12.5) vs New England Patriots
This may only be the third-largest Super Bowl upset spread-wise, but I think many regard it as the biggest Super Bowl upset ever. The 18-0 Patriots marched into Glendale, Arizona, expecting to roll the 10-6 New York Giants. Eli Manning and Co. got hurt during the postseason, but I don’t think anyone expected them to topple the undefeated, Tom Brady-led Patriots.
This game was a defensive battle for three quarters before the offenses finally got rolling in the fourth. New England took a 14-10 lead with 2:39 left on the clock, but the Giants had the ball. Eli Manning led the Giants on a 12-play, 83-yard touchdown drive, which included Manning’s incredible escape and throw to David Tyree, who pinned the ball on his helmet to secure the catch.
David Tyree’s Helmet Catch is one of the greatest plays ever 🤯pic.twitter.com/ZT4qDEY9OR
— Athlete Swag (@AthleteSwag) January 27, 2026
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Brady got the ball back with 35 seconds still on the clock, but the Patriots were unable to get in field goal range, and the Giants, who were 12.5-point underdogs, took home their second Super Bowl in franchise history.
4. 1969 Chiefs (+12) vs Minnesota Vikings

USA Today via Reuters
Credit: Malcolm Emmons, USA TODAY Sports
The 1969 Kansas City Chiefs entered the Super Bowl as 12-point underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings, who boasted one of the best defenses in NFL history. The Purple People Eaters were surrendering just 10 points per game heading into Super Bowl IV, but Len Dawson and the Chiefs jumped out to a 16-0 lead in the first half, and Minnesota was never able to recover.
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The Chiefs and Vikings would both score a touchdown in the second half, but this game was never really close, with the Chiefs taking home a 23-7 win to capture their first Super Bowl title and pull off what was then the second-largest upset in Super Bowl history.
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5. 1997 Broncos (+11.5) vs Green Bay Packers
John Elway was always considered one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he could never seem to get that elusive Super Bowl ring. He was 0-3 in his career entering the 1997-1998 season, and at 37 years old, he only had a couple more chances at it. Luckily, in 1997, the Denver Broncos made it back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in Elway’s career, and despite being 11.5-point underdogs to the Packers, they finally won it.
Elway finally got his first ring, but it wasn’t because of his performance. Elway threw for 123 yards and a pick, but Terrell Davis saved the day, rushing for 157 yards and three scores to help upset the Packers. Brett Favre had a monster day with 256 yards and three touchdowns, but Davis was too much for Green Bay to overcome.
The Broncos became just the third team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl as double-digit underdogs, and are still only one of five teams to accomplish that feat to this day.
6. 1990 Giants (+6.5) vs Buffalo Bills
For the second time, the Giants crack this list. And no, it wasn’t their second Super Bowl win over Tom Brady – they were +3 in that game – but instead the franchise’s first Super Bowl title back in 1990.
The Giants entered the Super Bowl as 6.5-point underdogs to the Buffalo Bills, who were about to begin a four-year Super Bowl losing streak. They were both 13-3, but the Bills had a great defense and a high-flying offense that was led by Jim Kelly. The Bills even got out to a 12-10 halftime lead, but couldn’t get much of anything going in the second half, scoring just seven points in the final 30 minutes.
Despite that, the Bills had a chance to win it with a game-winning field goal as time expired, but Scott Norwood pushed it wide right, and the rest is history.
January 27, 1991
Scott Norwood is no good.
20-19 #Giants pic.twitter.com/0ul9rxfnkO— Old Time Football 🏈 (@Ol_TimeFootball) January 27, 2025
7. 2009 Saints (+4.5) vs Indianapolis Colts

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Image Credits: Jeff Duncan on X
The final four teams on this list are all tied as 4.5-point underdogs, and the Patriots could put themselves even with these four if they’re able to topple Seattle in the Super Bowl next weekend.
Kicking off one of the four teams to win it all as a 4.5-point underdog is the New Orleans Saints. Just a few years after Hurricane Katrina, Sean Payton and Drew Brees brought the Saints to the Super Bowl, but they were 4.5-point underdogs to Payton Manning and the Colts. At the time, only six teams in NFL history had overcome a larger point spread in the Super Bowl.
The game started off poorly for New Orleans, but they cut the Colts’ lead to four before halftime. They were set to kick off to begin the second half, but Sean Payton pulled one of the ballsiest moves ever, going for an onside kick out of the half. And they got it.
The Saints onside kick in the Super Bowl will forever be LEGENDARY 💯 pic.twitter.com/76mploY5Kd
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) August 27, 2025
From that moment on, the Saints rolled the Colts, scoring 25 points to Indy’s seven in the second half to come away with a 31-17 victory to claim their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
8. 2015 Broncos (+4.5) vs Carolina Panthers
Two years after the Broncos were embarrassed in Super Bowl XLVIII, they got a chance to avenge their loss in Super Bowl 50. The 15-1 Carolina Panthers were on fire, with the MVP in Cam Newton leading them to 31.1 points per game, but they had to go up against an elite Denver defense.
The Broncos got off to a hot start, scoring 10 straight to start the game before taking a 13-7 lead into halftime. They completely stifled Newton and the Panthers’ offense, and the second half was much of the same story. Newton totaled 310 yards of offense, but had no touchdowns, one pick and two lost fumbles. The Broncos forced four turnovers, and even though Payton Manning was far from great, they walked out with a 24-10 victory.
Vonn Miller was named MVP with six tackles and 2.5 sacks, helping the Broncos capture their third Super Bowl in franchise history as 4.5-point underdogs.
9. 2012 Ravens (+4.5) vs San Francisco 49ers
The Harbaugh Bowl was such a fun Super Bowl. John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens marched into the Superdome to face his brother, Jim Harbaugh’s San Francisco 49ers. John’s team were 4.5-point underdogs, but it really felt like this game could go either way.
The Ravens jumped out to a huge 21-6 lead in the first half, and that was before Jacoby Jones got the second half started with a 108-yard kickoff return touchdown. At that point, it was 28-6, and it felt like Baltimore was going to run away with this game, but just minutes later, the power in the Superdome went out for 24 minutes, and the game completely flipped.
You can thank @raylewis for blessing Jacoby Jones before his kick return TD 🙌 (Super Bowl XLVII)@insidethenfl‘s Top 60 SB Mic’d Up Moments on X pic.twitter.com/I8IZxV19Ee
— NFL (@NFL) January 28, 2026
The 49ers outscored the Ravens 25-6 once the power was returned to the stadium, but they fell just short after failing to convert a fourth-and-goal from Baltimore’s five-yard line. If the Ravens had blown that lead, they would’ve been the laughing stock of the NFL for about five years before the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead in 2017. But they didn’t, and John will forever have bragging rights over his brother.
10. 2017 Eagles (+4.5) vs New England Patriots

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February 4, 2018 – Minneapolis, MN, U.S.A – Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles (9) held his son and waved during the victory celebration after Super Bowl LII.Foles was named the game s MVP. To the left is the Vince Lombardi Trophy….. JEFF WHEELER
In 2017, the Philadelphia Eagles were arguably the best team in football, but their MVP candidate quarterback, Carson Wentz, suffered a season-ending ACL tear late, forcing him to miss the rest of the season. Nick Foles stepped in to replace him, and most people wrote off the Eagles, but Foles delivered some magic.
Foles led the Eagles to the Super Bowl, but still, people doubted them. They were 4.5-point underdogs to Tom Brady’s Patriots, but Foles went toe-to-toe with Brady, throwing for 371 yards, three touchdowns and one interception while also catching a touchdown on the famous Philly Special.
On this day in 2018, the Philly Special was born. 🦅 #FlyEaglesFly
(via @Eagles, NFL) pic.twitter.com/QJjBD6j6nz
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) February 4, 2024
This was a shootout from start to finish, but the 4.5-point underdogs maintained control throughout the game and trailed by one point just one time all game. It felt inevitable that Brady was going to topple the Nick Foles-led Eagles, but Foles proved everyone wrong and helped lead one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history.
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