With four 1,000-yard seasons in his first five years in the NFL, Nick Chubb was easily the best running back in football a couple of years back. With 6,843 rushing yards that trailed by two Hall of Famers, he drew reasonable comparisons to Jim Brown. No surprises there. Looking back, was it too good to be true?

A devastating knee injury in 2023 and two major knee surgeries later, the 29-year-old’s rehab had quite a few concerns: a small hitch in his gait, left knee not bending quite like his right, and his inability to drive his knee forward as hard. But he was going to “make it,” Senior Vice President of Player Health & Development Joe Sheehan was assured once he saw Chubb sprinting up a hill. And so, he did. Chubb returned midway through the last season, started eight games before his foot broke in the Week 15 game against the Chiefs.

Chubb had given Browns fans a lot to miss at a time when there’s too little to celebrate. His move away from the Browns had long been anticipated, but we have big news coming in just hours ago: Chubb has signed a one-year deal worth up to $5 million with the Texans. Pairing up with quarterback C.J. Stroud, Chubb hopes to bring some bruising balance to Houston’s rising offense. And in order for him to do that, he needs a clean bill of health. Here’s what orthopedic surgeon and injury analyst Dr. Deepak Chona, known for his data-driven evaluations across the NFL, NBA, and MLB — and featured on ESPN, NBC, and The Athletic- shared on his official X account on Monday. First up, Nick Chubb.

Nick Chubb’s injury update

Dr. Chona projects Chubb to return at around 85% of his 2023 performance level by Week 1 of the 2025 season.

Injury concerns have shadowed Chubb since college. The Georgia alum tore his ACL and MCL as a sophomore — a setback he overcame to become a star in Cleveland. From 2018 to 2022, he was a force, stringing together multiple 1,000-yard seasons and carrying the Browns’ offense.

But in Week 2 of the 2023 season, Chubb suffered a devastating injury to the same knee — this time on a nationally televised matchup against the Steelers. He missed the entire season and remained on the PUP list until Week 7. His average dipped to 3.3 yards per carry, and Cleveland, wary of his long-term durability, declined to offer an extension. Now 29, Chubb joins Houston with hopes of resurgence — but according to Dr. Chona’s data, he remains a high injury risk in 2025.

CJ Stroud’s Injury Outlook

Texans fans can breathe easier here — no major red flags for C.J. Stroud. While there have been some murmurs about shoulder soreness, Dr. Chona indicated, “If throwing by camp, data would not predict higher in-season risk. No surgical history on this shoulder.”

Joe Mixon

Veteran RB Joe Mixon joined the Texans after seven seasons in Cincy. In 2024, he suffered an ankle injury early in the year and missed three games from Weeks 3 to 5. Despite that, he posted a strong 4.8 yards per carry through the first half of the season. Now with the Texans, Mixon is expected to be ready by Week 1, though Dr. Chona notes a moderate risk of further injury due to wear and tear over time.

Update on wideout Tank Dell

Wide receiver Tank Dell’s return is far less certain. The dynamic wideout fractured his fibula as a rookie in 2023 and later endured a serious knee injury in Week 16 after colliding with teammate Jared Wayne. He underwent surgery, but recovery will be lengthy. According to Chona, Dell is unlikely to return in time for the 2025 season.

Losing Tank Dell for the season delivers a real gut punch to C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense. The rapport they built as rookies wasn’t just efficient—it was electric. Replacing that connection, especially so early in a quarterback’s development curve, won’t happen overnight.

Jimmie Ward

Jimmie Ward’s stint in Houston, so far, has been more about what could’ve been. A decade-long anchor for the 49ers, Ward brought experience and edge to the Texans’ secondary, but lingering injuries have kept him from establishing real momentum. Hip and hamstring issues early on, followed by a season-ending foot injury after just 10 starts last year, left his impact feeling incomplete. Now entering the 2025 season as a 33-year-old, the veteran is trending in the right direction health-wise, but how long that holds remains to be seen.

Christian Harris

As for linebacker Christian Harris, a calf injury suffered during last year’s camp forced him into a delayed start that didn’t come until December. The third-year defender had shown promise before the setback and is now expected to be back at full strength. If healthy, he’s a versatile piece who could help stabilize Houston’s front seven under DeMeco Ryans.