After 15 weeks of chaos, the MVP race has crystallized into a three-man battle. Matthew Stafford remains at the top, while Drake Maye trails behind him. Beyond them, Josh Allen seems like the only true contender for the top spot. The rest? They’re playing for pride now. This is about supremacy, and the top three have separated themselves from everyone else, chasing ghosts.

Our EssentiallySports NFL MVP Ladder has now boiled down from the top 5 to the top 3. And with three weeks left in the regular season, the tension around the league is palpable. Let’s dive right in to see how the MVP race is shaping up for Week 16.

3. Josh Allen: Battling for his throne

Josh Allen just engineered the third-largest comeback in Buffalo Bills history, erasing a 21-point halftime deficit against New England to win 35-31. Allen completed 19 of 28 passes for 193 yards and three touchdowns while adding 48 yards on the ground. The start of it all? Trailing 24-7 in the third quarter, Allen found tight end Dawson Knox for a touchdown. The play kept Buffalo’s hopes alive and swung all the momentum back in their favor.

These second-half comebacks have become the Bills’ recipe for 2025 success, but that’s not all they’ve got going for themselves. Buffalo snapped the Patriots’ 120-game streak of winning when leading by 17+ points, an absurd stat that shows just how improbable this comeback was. Allen’s message post-game was defiant.

“We’re not out of it. We’re going to continue to fight,” he said. “If we’ve got a chance, and we’ve got the ball, we feel like we like our chances.”

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That’s the dual-threat swagger driving his second MVP campaign. Allen may sit eighth in passing yards (3,276) and sixth in QBR (66.4), but his 12 rushing touchdowns on the year solidify the threat Buffalo brings to every single game.

The Bills now face the Cleveland Browns in Week 16, a winnable game, before going up against the Philadelphia Eagles the following week. For now, the Bills hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC. At +600 odds, Allen needs to win the AFC East and secure a top-two seed to have a real shot at stealing this thing. The stats might favor Stafford and Maye, but momentum? Allen’s got that in the bag.

2. Drake Maye: Shining through despite a setback

In what was probably the biggest game of the AFC East, Drake Maye finally looked mortal. He completed just 14 of 23 passes for 155 yards against the Bills. This was the first game of the season in which Maye couldn’t crack 200 passing yards. No passing touchdowns, one pick, and three sacks, and the New England Patriots couldn’t close out the game, and their 1-game winning streak died in the second half. But here’s what matters: Maye still rushed for two touchdowns and showed grit when everything collapsed around him.

The play that defined his heart? Maye sprinted over 20 miles per hour downfield to block for TreVeyon Henderson on a rushing touchdown. That’s a quarterback displaying true MVP versatility and willing to get hurt for his teammates. And his thoughts after the defeat are sure to spark a fire in the locker room for the last stretch.

“Don’t let it beat you twice,” Maye outlined the path ahead post-game. “Move on to the next week and learn from it. Take what we can, and know that we got some football ahead of us that is still very important.”

Coming up next are the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16, a prime-time stage against Lamar Jackson. A strong performance here could flip this race back in his favor. At +425 odds, Maye needs Stafford to stumble and a statement game under the lights to shorten the odds once more. Beyond Baltimore, the New York Jets lie waiting.

So far, Maye has amassed 3,567 passing yards (5th in the league) and 23 touchdowns against just seven picks. His 71.2 QBR ranks him third-best in the league right now. And his performance has helped the Patriots snag the No. 2 seed in the AFC heading into Week 16. The question is whether he can keep this momentum in the postseason as well.

1. Matthew Stafford: Unmatched 2025 dominance

It was another week of Matthew Stafford reminding everyone why he’s the favorite. Against his former team, he completed 24 of 38 passes for 368 yards, two touchdowns, and one pick in a 41-34 victory over the Detroit Lions. The signature moment? Two massive dimes to tight end Colby Parkinson in the second half; pinpoint accuracy under pressure that showcased his command of the offense. The Los Angeles Rams never flinched.

Stafford even urged his team to push for a drive that ended with a field goal at the end of the first half. “Let’s go steal three,” he said, and his squad obliged with a 5-play, 47-yard drive that cut their deficit to 24-17. In the second half, the Lions could just hold 125 yards as the Rams controlled the game’s tempo. With this Week 15 victory, Stafford is now 2-1 against his former team since a trade in 2021 brought him to Los Angeles. 

Matthew Stafford now ranks second in passing yards (3,722 yards), his 10th career 4,000-yard season within reach. He’s fourth in QBR (69.7) with just five picks all season. And the 37-year-old still leads the league with 37 passing touchdowns. But that’s all about the numbers. Stafford’s ability to manage games, deliver explosive plays, and ground the locker room are all that make him the frontrunner for the MVP race.

The Los Angeles Rams have already clinched a playoff berth heading into Week 16 with the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Now, they need to defeat the 11-3 Seattle Seahawks (same record as themselves) to clinch the NFC West. At -260 odds, Matthew Stafford is the clear favorite to do so. A commanding performance against the Seahawks could slam the door shut on this race.

On the cusp, but still balling

Sam Darnold sits at +10000 odds after winning his fourth straight in Week 15 vs. the Indianapolis Colts. But after posting a fourth game for the Seahawks without a single passing touchdown, he needs to come up with major explosions in the last stretch for any kind of splash. With the surging Rams looming next, it’s a tall order.

Bo Nix is also at +10000 odds after his stellar Week 15 performance. But his MVP case seems to be undervalued at these odds. Not only did he dominate the Green Bay Packers in a 4-touchdown victory in Week 15, but the Denver Broncos are also riding an 11-game win streak with Nix at the helm. They’ve clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and a deep playoff run could make his case stronger. But first, the Jacksonville Jaguars await in Week 16.

Justin Herbert sits with +15000 odds on the edge of Vegas’ radar even after ending the Kansas City Chiefs’ 2025 playoff quest in Week 15. He’s playing through pain, and the Los Angeles Chargers hold the No. 5 seed in the AFC because of his grit. The only thing that could break his case (aside from his left arm) would be a tough last stretch starting with the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16.

The top 3 seem to be solidifying for now. Matthew Stafford owns this race. Drake Maye needs a statement game. Josh Allen needs more chaos. With three weeks left, the MVP trophy is Stafford’s to lose. But if this season has shown us anything, it’s that nothing is set in stone until the end. For now, we wait for the competitive heat to rise as high as the stakes.