This week at Saratoga, excitement is definitely in the air as everyone gears up for the 98th running of the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes. With a $1 million purse up for grabs for four-year-olds and older, this event is a highlight of the summer, attracting fans and bettors to the grandstands of America’s “Sport of Kings.” This year’s lineup is really impressive! We’ve got eight millionaires in the mix, including Sierra Leone, the reigning Breeders’ Cup Classic champion.

Then there’s White Abarrio, who took home the Whitney and Classic titles in 2023, and Fierceness, last year’s Travers winner. Plus, we can’t forget the seasoned pros like Skippylongstocking and Highland Falls. It’s shaping up to be quite the event!

Since the very start of the Saratoga meet, everyone has been talking about Sierra Leone. Trained by Chad Brown and fresh off a second-place finish in the Stephen Foster Stakes, he’s the top pick at 2‑1 odds, just behind Fierceness, who’s the favorite at 9‑5. Fans and pundits are buzzing about one of the most anticipated matchups on the 2025 racing calendar. Everyone’s chatting about the showdown between the two top weight-carrying older males at 1 1/8 miles. But not everyone is joining in on the celebration.

Matthew DeSantis, a horse racing analyst, has really pushed back against the 2-1 odds on Sierra Leone. On NYRA Bets’ YouTube channel, he mentioned, “Second in the Derby, third in the Belmont, second in the Jim Dandy, third in the Travers. He’s run at Saratoga three times. He’s lost three times. He’s been the favorite three times. He’s burned money three times. Maybe the fourth time’s the charm. Maybe, but a 2-1 with a horse that is trip- and distance-dependent and pace-dependent, I’d rather not take that chance.”

The racing analyst pointed out that Sierra Leone is definitely top-notch, but he’s really tied to certain conditions: he needs a strong early pace to chase and a smooth trip—which isn’t always a given on a big race day when pace predictions and post positions can change quite a bit. DeSantis’ careful approach might resonate with savvy bettors who focus on the details instead of just the reputation.

If Sierra Leone can’t find a clear path or if a genuine pace develops at the front, he might struggle to make a strong late charge. So, it looks like the colt could be aiming for a specific record if he chooses to race at Saratoga later this month.

Might become Sierra Leone’s priority after the Whitney Stakes

If Sierra Leone, with his $6.2 million in career earnings, takes home the win in this year’s Travers Stakes, he’ll be part of an exclusive club of horses that have won both the Travers Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That’s quite an impressive achievement, with only seven horses having done it before him! That would mean Sierra Leone would be the eighth horse to ever achieve that double.

But, you know, that race at Saratoga on August 23 is going to be a tough one, especially with the best three-year-old in the mix. It seems like Sovereignty’s main form could actually strip that distinction from Sierra Leone.

Sovereignty’s victories at the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, plus his strong showing in the Jim Dandy, really position him as the leading contender to take the lead and stand out against his rivals at those classic distances. Sierra Leone definitely has the opportunity to join a unique historical group, but the whole Sovereignty issue could really complicate things.