Today at Saratoga Race Course, the $1 million Whitney Stakes is the main event, featuring a lineup of experienced older horses going head-to-head for 1 1/8 miles on dirt. It’s not just about the prestige and the prize money; it also acts as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. With big names like Fierceness, Sierra Leone, and White Abarrio in the mix, this race is shaping up to be an exciting battle among top contenders in the older male division.

So, racing analyst Matthew DeSantis dropped his final picks for the Whitney, and while he’s on the same page as many by picking Fierceness as the probable winner, his overall rankings have sparked quite a bit of discussion.

DeSantis put Highland Falls, the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner trained by Brad Cox, in second place, placing him ahead of Sierra Leone in third and White Abarrio in fourth. His assessment definitely caught some attention since Sierra Leone and White Abarrio have shown they can perform at the Grade 1 level and have Breeders’ Cup credentials. Still, DeSantis seems to believe there’s more to uncover with Highland Falls.

In an interview with Carlos Morales shared on Agentes305’s X post, Brad Cox, Highland Falls’ trainer, shared some honest thoughts about their underdog status in the Whitney Stakes. He mentioned, “Well, I don’t know if he’s quick enough going a mile and an eighth against this group to get to the lead, but we’ll break running, we’ll let him kind of find his way going into the first turn. You know, look, this is a little bit tougher group than we faced in the Jockey Club last year, but I honestly feel like he’s doing as well. Maybe even better at the age of five, his works have been more consistent in the mornings. He’s really—I mean, he was ready to roll there at the Aqueduct. We expect him to run big. He responded well, and he’s trained really well. I mean, look, it’s a big, big step up from what he faced last time. But I think he’s gonna you know, make a good account of himself.”

Cox’s recognition that Highland Falls might not have the tactical speed to grab the early lead shows the thoughtful strategy behind his decision to enter this race. He also had a few nice comments to say about the horse’s consistency and improvement. He pointed out that the morning workouts have been sharper than ever, and the return at Aqueduct really showed why everyone is feeling confident going into the Whitney Stakes.

At 8‑1 on the morning line, he’s the classic underdog—up against some solid competitors but definitely has potential if things go his way. But you know, the favorite for the Whitney Stakes is the real deal out there.

Getting ready for the Whitney Stakes crown

Fierceness really made a splash in 2023 with an amazing performance in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, winning by over six lengths and proving himself as the top two-year-old in the country. The colt, trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Repole Stable, was also recognized as the Eclipse Champion Two-Year-Old Male for that season. Absolutely, there were high hopes for the colt, but he ran into some pretty big challenges during his three-year-old season.

Even though Fierceness had a rough go finishing 15th in the Kentucky Derby, he really showcased his determination and made a massive comeback over the summer in the same season. He really stepped up in the G1 Florida Derby that spring and showed the doubters what he was made of by returning to Saratoga to snag wins in both the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes in July and the G1 Travers Stakes in August 2024.

In the current season, Fierceness made a comeback as a four-year-old and really caught everyone’s eye by smashing a track record in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs, wrapping up the race in 1:40.66 over 1 1/16 miles. Now, what matters for the colt is how he performs in today’s Whitney Stakes, which takes place at Saratoga Race Course today.