In 2025, the Indiana Fever achieved something they hadn’t done since 2016—back-to-back playoff berths despite losing Caitlin Clark to a season-ending groin injury. Her absence is a major setback, but not the only one. Point guards Aari McDonald and Sydney Colson are also sidelined for the year, while Sophie Cunningham is out with an MCL tear. Even with five key players gone, Indiana still finished 24–20, securing the sixth seed. Yet memories linger: in 2024, their run ended abruptly in the first round against the Connecticut Sun. Now the concern isn’t just Clark’s absence, but whether this depleted roster can withstand playoff pressure and break a ‘myth’.

Even with these setbacks, head coach Stephanie White refuses to lower the bar. “We want to be a team that is competing for championships,” she declared after this year’s regular season wrapped up. It’s a bold statement, one that sets the tone for the locker room and injects belief into a team hit hard by adversity. Still, not everyone shares her optimism. One WNBA analyst has argued that the Fever are destined to repeat last year’s fate, and she has her reasons.

During the latest episode of the We Need to Talk podcast, Erica Ayala picked her favorite for the Atlanta-Indiana matchup. “I think this is going to be an interesting one, but I’m taking Atlanta, and that does mean Indiana will not advance,” she said bluntly. Her reason, however, was not rooted in any stat sheets or analysis, but in pure superstition. A superstition worth $500,000.

According to Ayala, whichever team has lifted the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup trophy worth $500K, they have failed to secure a win in the Championship finals. She calls it the “Commissioner’s Cup curse.” Giving out her reasons, she said, “They won the cup, but I’ve talked about it before. Winning the Commissioner Cup does not always bode well if you are a championship contender or want to be a championship contender.” With this statement, the WNBA analyst shot down Caitlin Clark & Co.’s hopes of advancing past the first round, and even Alicia Jay agreed to the point, saying, “Yeah, as much as I would like the money, I wouldn’t want to win that cup either, given the history.”

Her theory, though convincing, does have some holes in it. Five different teams have won the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup since its inception in 2020. They are Seattle Storm (2021), Las Vegas Aces (2022), New York Liberty (2023), Minnesota Lynx (2024), and Indiana Fever (2025). Interestingly, all these teams made a postseason run the year they won the Commissioner’s Cup. However, Seattle flunked out in the second round in 2021, with New York and Minnesota falling short in the championship finals. The shortcomings of New York and Minnesota, just at the edge of a Championship win, gave strength to the Commissioner’s Cup curse.

However, the Las Vegas Aces’ 2022 run proves that such a curse can be broken. That year, they first captured the Commissioner’s Cup with a 93–83 win over Chicago, then carried their dominance into the championship finals, defeating Connecticut 3–1. The Indiana Fever, though missing the injured Caitlin Clark, will attempt to carve out a similar path. Yet, with a depleted roster and steep competition ahead, their chances of winning the championship remain slim.

Playing the postseason with a depleted roster, the Fever enter as anything but favorites. ESPN’s Power Index gives Indiana just a 2.6 percent chance of capturing the title, well below its first-round opponents. ESPN rated Atlanta at 13.6 percent, and the Fever side is miles behind league leaders Minnesota, who sit at 51.5 percent. The odds don’t improve much deeper into the bracket: only a 34 percent chance to reach the semifinals and just 14.5 percent to advance to the finals.

For Indiana, every step forward would defy the projections. These assumptions fall in line with Ayala’s reasons for picking Atlanta. But a WNBA legend believes the opposite, claiming a Fever win over Atlanta.

Sue Bird highlights Indiana’s hidden advantage against Atlanta

The buildup to Indiana’s first-round matchup has fueled heavy debate, with analysts and insiders weighing in from every angle. Even within the Fever’s own camp, benched guard Sophie Cunningham didn’t mince words when asked who she’d prefer to face: Atlanta. Her reasoning was, “Atlanta may have the least amount of playoff experience, if I’m not mistaken. And I think our team does too. So I think that would be our best matchup.” That sentiment found reinforcement outside the locker room as well. Seattle Storm co-owner and WNBA legend Sue Bird publicly backed Indiana, pointing to one Fever player she believes could emerge as the X-factor in the series.

Although Sue Bird calls this a must-watch matchup, she dismisses the regular-season head-to-head results between the Fever and the Dream as largely irrelevant. Both teams have been reshaped by injuries, forcing them into new postseason lineups that look very different from opening night. In Bird’s view, the spotlight falls squarely on 2023 No. 1 pick Aliyah Boston.:

“To me, the Fever, what they’re bringing is just like a grit. They’re just gritty about it. They find ways to win. They find ways to stay in games. I don’t know. It might come down to, can Aliyah Boston kind of have an impact, not just in the paint, but the way she playmakes against Atlanta’s bigs,” Bird said.

The WNBA legend pointed out that while Atlanta’s defense under coach Karl Smesko is elite, they are not untouchable. The Dream boasts the league’s second-best defensive rating, but injuries have left cracks in its armor. With guard Jordin Canada sidelined, the backcourt lacks depth and consistency, creating an opening Indiana must exploit.

On the Fever’s side, the focus shifts to Aliyah Boston, their most dynamic weapon. Averaging 15 points and nearly four assists per game, Boston blends power in the paint with playmaking versatility, creating matchup nightmares against Atlanta’s frontcourt, especially Brionna Jones. Alongside her, Kelsey Mitchell has been Indiana’s steady force, delivering 20.2 points per game across 40 appearances and keeping the Fever’s offense alive through a turbulent season.

ESPN still gives the Dream a 66.4 percent chance over Indiana in Game 1 of the first round. But numbers don’t tell the full story. Caitlin Clark’s team has grit, a new-look rotation, and the element of surprise. That’s why this first-round clash feels far from settled.