Fate has a funny way of sneaking in. It showed up one afternoon in the Twin Cities, tucked inside a sixth-grader’s scrawny frame and stubborn spirit, when she caught the eye of a WNBA coach between weightlifting sets. Fate stayed long enough for Cheryl Reeve to toss her a ball and test her mettle through an impromptu shooting drill. And fate, years later, would whisper again when that same little girl grew into Paige Bueckers, a high school sensation, a college basketball GOAT, and a No.1 pick in the WNBA draft.

All Reeve could say was, “I know her. She’s a generational talent.” 

But who could have known she’d end up losing more games in the pros than she did in five years of college combined?

Losses don’t tell Paige Bueckers’ story; here’s how the No. 1 pick has performed

Yes, it’s true that Paige Bueckers has already lost more games in her first pro season than she did in her entire five-year college career. At UConn, Paige played in 123 games, racking up 110 wins and just 13 losses, a .894 winning percentage!

Bueckers wrapped up her college career like a fairy tale, crowned confidently as the top pick, and entered the WNBA… little did she know it would be nothing like her past five years.

Now, in her first WNBA season, she is 8-21 on a Dallas Wings team that stands at 9-27. What this tells us is that almost all her team’s wins have come when Paige has taken the court. And every time she has, she’s been brilliant.

Bueckers’ averages are 18.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. She’s among the top in rookies, and even among all league players, in scoring, assists, and steals. Along with that, Paige is also making history: she’s the first rookie guard ever to score in double figures in each of her first 20 career games.

Rightfully so, her performances earned her WNBA Rookie of the Month twice – in June and July – where she averaged 21.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, including a standout 35-point game.

Not just that, along with multiple franchise records, she has already reached some impressive milestones that will go down in history:

• Fastest rookie ever to reach 500 points and 100 assists: 27 games
• Fastest to 500+ points and 150+ assists: 28 games
• Fastest guard to hit 250 points, 50 rebounds, and 50 assists since 1997
• First to record 350+ points and 100+ assists in their first 20 games

Bueckers continued her record-breaking form in today’s game against the LA Sparks, notching a staggering 44-point display, the most points scored by a rookie in a WNBA game!

All in all, Bueckers is one of the best all-around players in the league, at this point. She’s smooth off the dribble, deadly from mid-range, can attack the rim, and has superb vision and active hands to force steals.

Still, some argue the Wings’ poor performance complicates her ROTY case. But does that even matter? 

ROTY history makes compelling case in favor of Bueckers? Diana Taurasi, A’ja Wilson, and Aliyah Boston are prime examples… 

Remember in 2023 when Jewell Loyd led the WNBA in scoring with 24.7 points per game? You’d think that’d put her in the MVP conversation, right? Not even close. Loyd didn’t get a single first, second, or third-place vote. She picked up just five fourth-place votes and eight fifth-place votes, ending up with a total of 23 points, way behind the leaders.

As someone wisely said, “MVP is supposed to be the most valuable player, not just the highest scorer.” And yes, that’s where team performance really matters. But ROTY? That’s a whole different story.

The WNBA has always celebrated rookies who show up, put in the work, and make their presence felt the moment they step on the court.

And the numbers back it up….

Out of 27 ROTY winners, 13 came from teams that didn’t even make the playoffs. Only 9 were on winning squads, 4 on .500 teams, and 14 on losing teams. So over half of ROTY winners, 52% to be exact, were carrying below .500 teams.

Just take a look at some past ROTY winners who came from underperforming teams:

Notable winners on poor teams include Seimone Augustus (10–24 Lynx) and Jewell Loyd (10–24 Storm), while Aliyah Boston won ROTY with Indiana posting the third-worst record in the league. She claimed all 60 votes for the award in 2023 while the Fever posted a 13–27 record. She helped Indiana improve on its abysmal 5–31 record from the previous year, which was another point in her favor.

Meanwhile, ROTY winners on winning teams had an average win percentage of 65%. The top performers on strong squads included Maya Moore (27–7 Minnesota Lynx, 2011) and Cheryl Ford (25–9 Detroit Shock, 2003), both of whom went on to win championships that year. Even then, Moore and Ford weren’t the main scorers on their teams; they were the third-leading scorers, not the central catalysts.

So what does this tell us? Team context matters, but it’s not the final word in ROTY conversations. The award has historically gone to rookies who make a clear individual impact, even on bottom-tier teams. For Paige Bueckers, this clears the path: even if the Wings’ record is rough, history shows that a player’s performance can outweigh team struggles.

That said, the race is still tight.

The tightest ROTY race in years

Before anyone jumps in asking why Kiki Iriafen isn’t really in the ROTY conversation, let’s get it straight: yes, she’s grabbing 8.6 rebounds per game and doing all the dirty work, but scoring still rules this award.

That’s why all eyes are on Paige Bueckers and Sonia Citron. Bueckers is averaging 18.8 points per game, Citron 15.3, and Iriafen is back in third with 12.7. History backs up the scorers: the last four Rookies of the Year all led their classes in points, and even Crystal Dangerfield, who finished second in 2020, proved that you need offense to grab the crown.

Bueckers seems to have the edge, but Citron isn’t going quietly. The No. 3 pick is more efficient than Paige both from the field (46.6% vs. 45.8%) and from deep (41.3% vs. 31%). Plus, DC’s team is just 1.5 games out of a playoff spot, while it’s basically over for Dallas.

And Citron has beaten Bueckers in both of their head-to-head matchups this season. That alone makes this race way more heated than last year, when Caitlin Clark practically ran away with ROTY. Numbers and sheer dominance favor Bueckers, no doubt, but Citron is proving she can hang, and maybe even steal it.

For now, Paige Buekcers still leads, but fans, stats, and history all clash here, making this one of the most compelling rookie races in years.