The WNBA offseason is always a time of questions, speculation, and roster rumors, and this year, one name dominates the chatter. With more than 100 players set to hit free agency, all eyes are on Arike Ogunbowale as the current biggest storyline.

The Dallas Wings guard has been a franchise cornerstone since arriving from Notre Dame. Her confidence as a scorer and ability to come through when it matters have kept her in the mix as one of the league’s top players for seven seasons now.

Yet, as the league prepares to welcome two expansion teams, the Portland Fire and Toronto Tempo, and with the uncertainty looming all over the league and their players as CBA negotiations continue, speculations about her future have only intensified, especially after the

players’ union threatened a strike. But is Ogunbowale really on the move, or are the rumors overblown?

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Is Arike Ogunbowale Leaving the Dallas Wings?

Speculations around Ogunbowale’s future with the Wings have been swirling in recent weeks, fueled in part by mock expansion drafts and the upcoming debut of the expansion teams. In one recent projection by Clutch Points contributor Jess Koffie, the women’s sports lead selected Ogunbowale as the number one overall pick for Portland, writing:

“Portland opens its franchise history by choosing certainty in its most volatile form. Arike Ogunbowale is a player who thrives under pressure, whose confidence does not waver with defensive attention or game context.”

But that’s not all. Arike Ogunbowale herself has added fuel to the fire with her comments about where her offseason focus lies.

During Unrivaled media day, she told reporters, “Player-to-player wise, I like to mind my business…Once I figure out (the) CBA and what team I’ll be on and what team I’m going to sign with, then maybe I’ll do some talking.”

Her comments may have been careful, but they’ve still fueled speculation that a move isn’t off the table. She keeps stressing the importance of staying present, but let’s be honest, you don’t start thinking about where you might end up unless the idea of joining another team is at least crossing your mind.

However, despite all the buzz and the speculations, it’s important to note that at the end of the day, these are just speculations, as no confirmed trade, release, or expansion draft move involving Ogunbowale has been announced. The Wings have made no official statements suggesting a departure, and for now, she remains a central figure in Dallas’ plans.

Have the Dallas Wings and Team Sources Released an Official Statement About Arike Ogunbowale’s Future?

The Dallas Wings have remained measured in their public comments around Ogunbowale’s future with the franchise, signaling both confidence in their core and discretion regarding expansion draft decisions. The Wings head coach, Jose Fernandez, has publicly expressed his desire to coach both Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale in the 2026 WNBA season.

On In Case You Missed It with Khristina Williams, the coach said, “You have someone like Arike that’s been an All-Star, right? Leading scorer in the Wings organization. What’s left for Arike to do here with the Dallas Wings is win a championship.”

He added, “Paige and Arike, they are exceptional guards that can create off the bounce. They both can shoot the three. They can get to the free-throw line. It’s them understanding how they’re going to be utilized, and there’s got to be great communication between me and my staff and both of them on where they feel comfortable on the floor…A lot of plays were run for them, and that’s not going to change here in Dallas.”

Furthermore, insights from the front office shed even more light on how central she is to Dallas’ plans. General Manager Curt Miller, in a recent interview with the Dallas Hoops Journal, highlighted the synergy between Ogunbowale and Bueckers as a driving factor in roster decisions. According to Miller, Bueckers’ versatility and efficiency give the Wings flexibility to experiment with lineups, while also creating space for Ogunbowale to play her natural game.

“Paige wants to be involved in recruiting players to Dallas. Arike also initiates free agency conversations with me. It’s exciting that your two best players consistently want to talk future. She’ll pick up the phone and call me – ‘What about so-and-so?’ I think she’s been through the good times; she’s been through some of the building years. She means a lot to this franchise, and she means a lot to me personally. We’re really excited about Arike,” he said when asked about the pairing of Bueckers and Ogunbowale.

It’s clear Arike Ogunbowale is still a key piece of Dallas’ future, but everything may hinge on who the franchise chooses to protect as the expansion draft approaches, and, just as importantly, whether Ogunbowale herself wants to stay put.

How the WNBA Expansion Draft Could Impact Stars Like Arike Ogunbowale?

Unlike the Golden State Valkyries’ expansion draft, where teams were allowed to protect six players on their roster, league sources suggest that with two teams entering at once, the protection limit may drop to five players. At the center of the uncertainty are the expansion draft mechanics, which are influenced by ongoing Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) negotiations. With a January 9, 2026, deadline looming, the structure of the draft could directly affect players like Ogunbowale.

If Dallas had six protection spots, Arike Ogunbowale would be a no-brainer. But with only five slots available, the franchise is staring at a tough decision, weighing its young core against the need to hold onto its cornerstone star.

The Wings boast a wealth of young talent, including Paige Bueckers, the upcoming 2026 #1 overall pick, where they might pick Azzi Fudd, Bueckers’ former teammate at UConn, and rising stars like Maddy Siegrist and Diamond Miller. So if the team decides to prioritize the Bueckers Era, it could inadvertently make a high-volume scorer like Ogunbowale a potential expansion target.

The 5-foot-8 star will also be an unrestricted free agent, and with the proposed CBA boosting max salaries to over $1 million, keeping her could tie up cap space. Whereas if left unprotected, Portland or Toronto could select her and immediately offer a “Supermax” deal.

But team fit also matters! Portland’s system emphasizes modern player development and a European-style flow. So, Ogunbowale’s isolation-heavy scoring might require tactical adjustments. On the other hand, Toronto, under Coach Sandy Brondello, could make her the face of a veteran-led, disciplined team.

What Arike Ogunbowale’s Contract Situation Means for Dallas?

At the center of every rumor, mock draft, and hypothetical scenario surrounding Ogunbowale is one unavoidable reality: her contract timeline. More than performance or speculation, it is her looming free agency that makes her future with the Dallas Wings feel uncertain.

In the 2025 WNBA season, Arike Ogunbowale was in the final year of the multi-year extension she signed with Dallas back in 2022. So, being a free agent for the first time in her career, she has full freedom to negotiate with any team in the league, without Dallas holding automatic control unless it chooses to use its lone “Core” designation.

But Ogunbowale has already made it clear she is taking a “wait-and-see” approach, keeping her focus narrow until the CBA is finalized. If the new agreement significantly raises maximum salaries, waiting could dramatically increase her earning power.

From Dallas’s perspective, this creates a delicate balancing act. Ogunbowale already accounted for one of the largest individual cap commitments on the roster of the Dallas salary cap in 2025, reported to be at 16.5% as per Spotrac. And as we stated, a new deal under a higher cap could demand an even larger commitment, limiting flexibility as the franchise builds around Paige Bueckers and prepares for another potential top draft pick in 2026.

That leaves Dallas with a handful of realistic paths forward. The Wings could use the Core designation to keep Ogunbowale for another season, prioritizing continuity but accepting tighter cap constraints. They could leave her unprotected in the expansion draft, effectively choosing to protect younger pieces while risking losing a franchise icon. Or, if both sides see the writing on the wall, a sign-and-trade could allow Dallas to recover assets rather than losing her outright.

Ultimately, with expansion looming, a new CBA on the horizon, and multiple timelines intersecting, her situation has become the anchor point for one of the most consequential offseasons in franchise history.