The No. 2 vs. No. 7 seeds don’t always tell the whole story. What really defined the Aces and the Storm this year was the second half of the season. Simply put, Las Vegas soared, Seattle stumbled!

But if we have to be honest, “underdogs” doesn’t fit either of these squads. The Seattle Storm and Las Vegas Aces are back in the playoffs, and both carry the kind of toughness, experience, and leadership that makes them the last teams anyone wants to run into in a series.

How we got here: Series context & season recap

The Las Vegas Aces enter the 2025 WNBA playoffs as the No. 2 seed with a 30-14 regular-season record, a significant improvement from their middling form at the All-Star break. They clinched their seeding with a dominant 16-game winning streak to close the season, the second-longest in league history, sparked by a humbling 53-point home loss to Minnesota on August 2.

The Seattle Storm, seeded No. 7 at 23-21, barely made the postseason, securing the final spot with a dramatic 74-73 road win over Golden State on September 9, thanks to Erica Wheeler’s game-winning shot. Seattle’s season was a rollercoaster: a 3-4 start, a hot streak, a brutal 3-9 skid after the break, and a three-game winning run just after.

For the Aces, the postseason is about redemption after a semifinal exit last season, aiming for a third title in four years. Seattle seeks its first playoff series win since 2022, hoping to avoid another early exit amid roster changes and off-court drama, including Jewell Loyd’s contentious 2025 move to Las Vegas. The rivalry is further intensified as Loyd faces her former team, and Seattle looks for payback after recent sweeps.

Catch the action:

• Game 1: Storm at Aces, 10 p.m. ET Sunday (ESPN)
• Game 2: Aces at Storm, 9:30 ET Tuesday (ESPN)
• Game 3 (if necessary): Storm at Aces, TBD Thursday (ESPN2)

Season series recap

The teams split their season series 2-2, with each game decided by an average of just 7.5 points. Seattle claimed a dominant 102-82 home win on May 25 behind Ogwumike’s 23 points. Las Vegas responded with a 75-70 road win on June 1, powered by A’ja Wilson’s 19 points. Seattle followed it with a 90-83 victory in Vegas on June 20, as Ogwumike added 25 points and 12 rebounds. Then the Aces closed the series with a thrilling 90-86 home triumph on August 8, highlighted by Wilson’s 29-point performance on her birthday.

Playoff history

The postseason rivalry is rich and recent. Seattle swept Vegas 3-0 in the 2020 WNBA Finals. However Aces took the revenge just two years later and dominated Storm 3-1 in the 2022 semifinals. The most recent first-round matchup in 2024 also went 2-0 in favor of the Aces. That means, Seattle’s last playoff win over Vegas came in 2022 and overall, this marks their fourth postseason meeting in six years, with Las Vegas holding a 5-4 edge since 2020.

How they match up: Strengths & weaknesses

The Aces and Storm are almost mirror opposites when it comes to their profiles. Las Vegas ranks 4th in offensive rating but just 8th in defense, while Seattle flips that script, sitting 4th in defense and 8th in offense. The contrast sets the stage for a clash of identities.

Seattle’s strength is clear: their defense. They led the league in both steals (8.5 per game) and blocks (5.1), forcing opponents into mistakes and punishing them in transition. But their offense has been shaky, often hampered by inconsistency. The Aces, meanwhile, lean heavily on A’ja Wilson to fuel their fast pace, and without her dominance, their attack can stall.

Seattle doesn’t lean on one superstar as heavily, but their thinner rotation means errors come at a bigger cost. To survive, the Storm need to control the glass, minimize turnovers, and withstand Vegas’ inevitable scoring bursts. That won’t be easy as Seattle sits last in the league in rebounding at 30.9 per game, while Vegas ranks 8th at 33.5 but the Aces have shown vulnerability on the boards when their energy dips or Wilson is not present on the court. To add here, if we look at it, Storm has more front court depth than Aces. So if we take Wilson out of the equation (which is not possible, just hypothetically) Seattle can end up out-rebounding Las Vegas.

Three-point shooting is another swing factor. Las Vegas ranks third in accuracy at 35.1% and even shattered records with 22 threes in a single game. Seattle shoots at a respectable 34.2%, but with lower volume. Interestingly, the Storm edge Vegas in overall field goal percentage at 45.0% compared to 43.9%.

The bottom line is Vegas’ pace and shooting give them the firepower to overwhelm, but Seattle’s defense is elite enough to grind out an upset if they can flip the possession battle.

What could change the game?

Statistical

• Pace: Vegas thrives in transition when A’ja Wilson dictates tempo, fueling their 22+ fast-break points at times. But Seattle’s more deliberate style balances that out, as their league-best 8.5 steals per game generate 16.1 turnovers, many of which turn into easy buckets.
• Foul trouble: The Aces draw 18.5 FTAs per game (5th in the league) while also conceding 16.7 (4th). The Storm, on the other hand, give up 18.2 but attempt a league-low 16.0. That gap could make the difference late in tight games.
• Bench production: Vegas holds a slight edge here, with 20.3 points from the bench compared to Seattle’s 18.4. Not a massive gap, but enough to provide a cushion if starters run cold.
• Signature styles: The Aces lean on motion offense built around Wilson’s pick-and-pops and Jackie Young/Jewell Loyd’s perimeter actions. The Storm counter with a switch-heavy defense. Defensively, they’re nearly mirror images as Seattle allows 80.1 points per game, Vegas 80.7.

Storylines

• Jewell Loyd vs. her past: After 10 years in Seattle, Loyd’s move to Vegas wasn’t without noise. Reports of locker room tensions and her trade request following an internal investigation make this meeting personal. Facing the Storm in the postseason gives her a shot at revenge.
• Double revenge factor: The Aces are looking to rebound after failing to three-peat, while Seattle is seeking payback for last year’s sweep at the hands of Vegas. Both sides enter this series with unfinished business.
• Coaches battle: Noelle Quinn and Becky Hammon, both respected from their playing days, have now been with their team for quite a few years, cementing themselves as tactical leaders. Expect in-game adjustments and substitution patterns to be decisive in this series.

Stars and key contributors

One more reason this matchup feels heavyweight is that both rosters are stacked with battle-tested veterans. Nobody’s new to this stage. And with both squads coming in at full strength, there’s no room for excuses. 

Las Vegas Aces

A’ja Wilson (23.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 3.1 APG) is the heartbeat of this team. Nothing flows without her. She hasn’t dipped into single digits all season, the lone exception being that Liberty game where she left with an injury. If A’ja gets hot, everything shifts.

Jackie Young (16.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.1 APG) is the next gear in Vegas’ offense. She was huge in their 2023 postseason run, averaging 16.7 points, and the Aces will expect the same stability from her again.

Chelsea Gray (11.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.4 APG), the “Point Gawd” is battle-tested, steady, and the 2022 Finals MVP. Postseason basketball is where Gray shines brightest.

X-factors:

• Jewell Loyd (11.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG), facing her former team, adds extra fire.
• NaLyssa Smith (8.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (8.0 PPG) is back after giving birth in July. She’s a wild card who could make noise at the right moment.

Seattle Storm

Nneka Ogwumike (18.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.3 APG) brings Finals MVP pedigree from 2016 and has never shied away from the postseason spotlight.

Skylar Diggins-Smith (15.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 6.0 APG) may not always bring her best against the Aces, but her playoff résumé across multiple teams, averaging 14.8 in the postseason, makes her one of Seattle’s most reliable weapons.

Gabby Williams (11.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.3 APG) has been a breakout star this season and is firmly in the DPOY conversation. But don’t mistake her rise for inexperience, as Williams has already proven she can contribute on the postseason stage.

X-Factors:

• Brittney Sykes (11.8 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.3 APG)
• Erica Wheeler (10.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 3.3 APG)
• Dominique Malonga (7.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG) her best outing of the year came against these very Aces (22 points, 12 rebounds)

Prediction

Analysts lean heavily toward the Aces, with ESPN’s panel giving Las Vegas a 62.8% chance to advance. Fan buzz only adds to the hype, pointing to Vegas having just lost 5 games at home.

We mostly agree. But Seattle’s defensive grit and veteran poise mean they won’t go quietly. The Storm have the tools to stretch this best-of-three, especially with a chance to win at home inside Climate Pledge Arena. So, this series could be a lot tighter than the numbers suggest.