Barring the fact that Tyson Fury marks his Netflix debut with his comeback fight on April 11 this weekend, the matchup against Arslanbek Makhmudov would have most likely been overlooked. On paper, the direction of the bout may seem clear. Yet, the headliner at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, promoted by Spencer Brown, still commands attention, largely because of how it could shape the heavyweight landscape in the coming months.

Following consecutive losses to Oleksandr Usyk in December 2024, Tyson Fury decided to hang up the gloves. But his retirement—his fifth—didn’t last long. With an eye on a mega showdown against Anthony Joshua, early in January this year, the Mancunian announced his return to professional boxing. That context also explains how the upcoming bout against Makhmudov is being viewed. For Fury, the stakes are straightforward. A win keeps him in line for a marquee fight with Joshua and potentially sets up a trilogy with Usyk. A slip, however, would disrupt those plans entirely. And while it may seem unlikely, the possibility of an upset adds a layer of intrigue that is hard to ignore. With that in mind, here are a few details that could play a key role in the 12-round duel between the Englishman and the Russian.

Who has better stats and record?

On paper, Fury holds the edge. Makhmudov can barely match the kind of depth – be it quality or quantity – that his resume commands. Though marred by long breaks and retirements, Fury has been active since 2008. Barring a few exceptions, in that span, he has faced the top names in contemporary heavyweight boxing.

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A former unified champion, his fights against Wladimir Klitschko and Deontay Wilder still resonate among diehard fans. The only blemish on Fury’s record (34 wins-1 draw) remains the two back-to-back losses he suffered to Usyk – a number that features on his upcoming opponent’s record as well.

That experience gap, however, becomes less pronounced when it comes to raw power. Ranked 5th in the WBA and 14th in the IBF’s top-15 rankings, Makhmudov edges past Fury in that department. The Russian’s nearly 91% knockout rate (19 out of 21 wins) stands in stark contrast to Fury’s 71% strike rate.

Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov: Height, weight, reach comparison, and more

Beyond records, the physical dimensions also shape the matchup. Even here, they do little to close the overall gap in experience. Standing 6 feet 9 inches (206 centimeters) tall and wielding an 85-inch (216-centimeter) reach, Fury presents a difficult puzzle. In comparison, Makhmudov stands 6 feet 6 inches (198 centimeters) tall and has a wingspan extending 76.5 inches (194 centimeters).

Weight adds another layer to the comparison. In his last fight against Usyk, Fury weighed 281 pounds. The Russian, meanwhile, tipped almost 20 pounds less, at 261, when he fought Dave Allen this past October.

Notably, Fury’s weight data is more than 12 months old, so the final weigh-ins should offer a clearer picture.

Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov: Style breakdown and fight prediction

Beyond numbers and physical traits, the stylistic matchup could ultimately decide how the fight unfolds. Can Makhmudov find a way to disrupt Fury’s rhythm? That remains the central question.

While Fury stands among the strongest heavyweights, he is well known for his exceptional ring IQ and technical craft. Considering his size, he is highly agile. Using slick movement combined with feints, Fury does not hesitate to employ rough tactics during inside fighting. A key example of his adaptability is his ability to switch between orthodox and southpaw stances.

Makhmudov, meanwhile, comes across as a more aggressive pressure fighter who relies on stopping his opponents early. His knockout rate provides ample evidence of his approach. If he is to make this competitive, closing distance quickly and forcing exchanges could be critical.

Yet, there is a vulnerability attached to that style. His game plan worked against a pressure fighter like Dave Allen. But as the fights against Agit Kabayel and Guido Vianello showed, Makhmudov is particularly susceptible when facing opponents who move. Fury fits that profile, which adds another layer to the challenge.

Prediction

Taking all factors into account, the fight appears to lean in Fury’s favor. The long 12-month break could blunt his sharpness early, which may give Makhmudov a window to test him.

However, over the course of 12 rounds, Fury’s movement, experience, and adaptability are likely to make the difference. Expect Makhmudov to have moments, but Fury should be able to control the pace and pull away on the scorecards for a clear decision win.