“With a loaded roster headlined by NFL MVP Josh Allen, McDermott has been under scrutiny for not being able to get his team to that next level,” CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan recently wrote, placing McDermott on his list of five head coaches facing pressure in 2025. The Buffalo Bills have one of the NFL’s most talented rosters, anchored by superstar quarterback and reigning MVP Josh Allen. Yet despite years of success, questions continue to swirl around head coach Sean McDermott’s ability to deliver when it matters most.

It’s a fascinating paradox that speaks to the heightened expectations in Buffalo. How does a coach with an impressive 86-45 regular season record and six consecutive winning seasons find himself grouped alongside struggling coaches like Zac Taylor during Cincinnati’s inconsistent stretches or Brian Daboll amid the New York Giants’ unpredictable campaigns? The answer might reveal as much about championship-or-bust mentality in today’s NFL as it does about McDermott’s coaching tenure.

But deep down, this isn’t just about numbers on a stat sheet. The Bills‘ story has become one of constant “almosts.” Postseason heartbreaks. That never-ending Chiefs roadblock. The weight of MVP Josh Allen’s legacy. Even whispers about front-office decisions and the rising powerhouses across the AFC. All of it circles back to the same frustrating theme: Buffalo looks every bit like a dynasty in the making, yet somehow feels like a dynasty that never quite arrived.

As we gear up for the 2025 season, the big question isn’t whether the Bills are good—they are. No question about it. It’s about the gap. That one missing piece, or many if we prefer to dive deep into the chaos, keeps McDermott and Allen from finally pushing Buffalo into true championship territory. And that’s where the real conversation begins.

Sean McDermott’s rebuilt culture turns heads, but heartbreaks persist

“When you build a team, you’ve got to build it the right way,” McDermott said back in 2020. Fast forward to now, and with no argument, it’s safe to say that Coach McDermott has built a defense-first culture in Buffalo. The logic tracks as well. Sean came up under legendary Eagles DC Jim Johnson, absorbing pressure-heavy 4-3 philosophy, then became DC himself in Philly and later in Carolina. His Panthers defenses finished top-10 in overall defense multiple seasons and helped reach Super Bowl L.

His track record in Buffalo? The Bills undoubtedly leaned on defense. With Leslie Frazier as the DC (left in 2024), Buffalo routinely posted top-10 units. The results? Well, that’s where it gets tricky. McDermott’s situation in the NFL is anything but straightforward. Many argue that he’s the best head coach in the Bills’ history, and they’re right. Buffalo endured a 17-year-long postseason drought before McDermott arrived. The HC then flipped the narrative.

He led the Bills to the January round of the NFL in his first season, and since then, he has a .656 win percentage (with an 86-45 regular season record). But then again, there has been a wrinkle. McDermott deserves respect for his regular-season track record, sure. But we can’t overlook his postseason failures. Under McDermott, the Buffalo team is 7-7 in the postseason. Take a look at McDermott’s postseason losses:

• 2017: 10-3 to the Jacksonville Jaguars
• 2019: 22-19 to the Houston Texans
• 2020: 38-24 to the Chiefs
• 2021: 42-36 to the Chiefs
• 2022: 27-10 to the Bengals
• 2023: 27-24 to the Chiefs
• 2024: 32-29 to the Chiefs

A deeper dive into Buffalo’s recent postseason struggles reveals a troubling pattern. Over their last five playoff losses, McDermott’s Bills have surrendered an average of 33.2 points per game—a concerning statistic for any team with championship aspirations, let alone one still chasing its first Lombardi Trophy.

The narrative has become painfully familiar to Bills Mafia. January arrives with renewed hope and optimism, fueled by another successful regular season and the promise that this might finally be their year. Yet by month’s end, that same hope transforms into heartbreak as Buffalo’s playoff run comes to another premature conclusion. For a franchise and fanbase that has waited decades for their moment, these defensive collapses in the sport’s biggest games have become an annual source of frustration.

The numbers tell a story of sustained excellence that somehow never reaches its ultimate destination. Over the past six years, the Bills have been a model of consistency, securing a playoff berth in every single season. Yet despite all that regular-season success, their Super Bowl appearances remain at a stubborn zero.

The Kansas City Chiefs have emerged as Buffalo’s postseason nemesis, accounting for four of the Bills’ six playoff defeats during this stretch. It’s a rivalry that has defined both franchises’ trajectories, with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs repeatedly standing between McDermott, Allen, and their championship dreams. But pointing fingers solely at Kansas City would be missing the bigger picture. The AFC has evolved into a gauntlet of elite competition, where even the most talented rosters find themselves fighting tooth and nail just to survive each January. For Buffalo, the challenge isn’t just overcoming one rival—it’s navigating an entire conference that seems to get stronger every year.

How Josh Allen survives in a star-powered AFC conference

The AFC East landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation. The Patriots’ two-decade reign of terror has crumbled, leaving behind only memories of what was once the NFL’s most dominant dynasty. In their place, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have emerged as the division’s new powerhouse, claiming control of the AFC East for the past five years. Heading into the 2025 season, Buffalo is positioned to capture their sixth consecutive division title. On paper, they remain the heavy favorites to continue their stranglehold on the AFC East. The real question, however, isn’t whether the Bills can win their division—it’s whether divisional dominance can finally translate into the ultimate prize.

he AFC has evolved into a quarterback arms race unlike anything the NFL has seen. The Athletic’s latest QB tier rankings underscore just how loaded the conference has become, with the top four signal-callers all calling the AFC home. Patrick Mahomes continues to lead the pack, followed by Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. This depth of elite quarterback talent creates a unique challenge for Allen and the Bills. While having one of the league’s best quarterbacks is typically a recipe for sustained success, the AFC’s current landscape means Buffalo must navigate a gauntlet of equally gifted opponents just to reach the Super Bowl.

The question isn’t whether Allen has the talent to lead a championship run—his credentials speak for themselves. Instead, it’s whether any quarterback, regardless of ability, can consistently overcome such a concentrated collection of elite competition. In a conference where four different teams boast legitimate MVP-caliber quarterbacks, even the slightest margin for error can derail championship aspirations.

For starters, the Chiefs with Mahomes under the center are still the favorites to claim the No. 1 seed. And not to mention, Mahomes and the Chiefs are nothing but a nightmare for Allen and the Bills in almost every January of every year. The Bills are 0-4 against the Kansas City team in the playoffs. “The window is still wide open, but the Chiefs are still blocking full daylight,” Mike Florio writes, ranking the Bills at No. 3 in the AFC.

Second, Burrow had a tremendous season in 2024. He didn’t make it to the postseason, sure. But he’s fit. He’s healthy. And he’s got his offensive weapons (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) on new deals. With Zac Taylor expected to flip the script (one of the top 5 HCs, who are on the hot seat, as per Tyler Sullivan), expect Burrow and the Bengals to interrupt Allen’s desire to lift his first Lombardi. Last but not least, Jackson has been at the pinnacle of his career. Two MVPs on the cabinet and six postseason appearances in the last 7 years already.

But what makes Lamar even more lethal is that he and Allen are on the same boat. Lamar has qualified for the playoffs almost every season of his career, and so has Allen. Lamar is grinding to make it to his first Super Bowl, and so is Allen. We’ve seen the Mahomes vs. Allen rivalry in the postseason, no doubt. But you can bet Lamar and the Ravens are going to make life tough for Allen and the Bills in 2025.

After all, Allen’s 76-35 regular-season record screams success, but that 7-6 postseason track record just fades all the hype. We just need to see if Allen goes on to make a comeback like Peyton Manning (Super Bowl after heartbreaks), or he’s going to become another Philip Rivers in the NFL (star QB, but no rings). Not to mention, a tough couple of preseason losses just added fuel to the fire ahead of the regular season. But the Bills’ fate isn’t just bound to coaching and some tough rivalries. In fact, the front office is in the mix as well.

Strained salary cap and front office scrutiny in Buffalo

The 2025 offseason has been an expensive one for the Bills, especially when it comes to their homegrown players. The front office has spent $637 million on the players that they have drafted. James Cook’s latest contract confirms it. Take a look at those six players who have cashed in heavily this year:

• QB Josh Allen: 6 years, $330 million
• RB James Cook: 4 years, $48 million
• WR Khalil Shakir: 4 years, $53 million
• CB Christian Benford: 4 years, $76 million
• DE Gregory Rousseau: 4 years, $80 million
• LB Terrel Bernard: 4 years, $50 million

It’s safe to say that the Bills are eyeing their first Super Bowl, and they’ve invested in their key players, rightfully so. However, when you peek at the Bills’ books now, the numbers don’t exactly scream comfort. They’re sorted for the 2025 season, sure. It’s the following seasons that seem concerning. Buffalo’s sitting with barely $1.3–$1.6 million in Top-51 cap space, which ranks near the bottom of the league. That’s not much wiggle room for a contender hoping to survive injuries or scoop up a late-summer cut.

It’s not that they’ve mismanaged completely, not at all. But it does feel like they’re walking a financial tightrope into 2025. So how did it get this tight? A mix of smart short-term moves and long-term gambles. Take Joey Bosa’s one-year deal, for instance. Buffalo squeezed his cap hit by sprinkling in void years, essentially lowering today’s charge but pushing it into tomorrow. The Eagles have mastered this route. And the Bills are following the same pattern.

Same trick with Cook’s extension, which shaved about $2 million off his 2025 hit. Great for now, but those deferrals stack up, making future cap years a little heavier. Then there’s a spending spree on offensive weapons. They’ve signed Josh Palmer to a three-year and $29 million deal, ending all the criticism of not having a good wideout. His contract looks light today at just $4.3 million in the 2025 cap. But it will escalate later. We’re talking about $11.85 million in 2026.

Taken all together, Brandon Beane has lit the Bills’ salary cap, no denying that. But it’s not enough to relax. The league bumped the 2025 cap into the $277.5–$281.5 million range, easing some pain versus winter projections, yet the Bills still hovered around through restructures/void years to operate. The Eagles have enjoyed tremendous success with such salary cap moves, and the Bills are expected to do so as well.

The clock is ticking for Buffalo. With the AFC’s competitive window only getting narrower and contract realities looming, the Bills face a crucial stretch where championship opportunities may become increasingly scarce. The challenge isn’t just winning now—it’s recognizing that future seasons could present even steeper obstacles as rival teams continue to strengthen their rosters.

McDermott and Allen have undeniably transformed Buffalo into a perennial contender, building something special in Western New York. Yet despite all their regular-season dominance and division titles, the ultimate prize continues to slip away. The 2025 season represents more than just another chance—it’s potentially the beginning of a championship window that won’t stay open forever.

Whether the Bills can finally capture their first Lombardi Trophy and launch a dynasty remains the defining question hanging over this franchise. After years of coming close, Buffalo has all the pieces in place. Now they just need to prove they can put them together when it matters most.