No matter who wins at TPC Sawgrass, you won’t see a new world no. 1. Not even Rory McIlroy, OWGR 2, poses any serious threat to Scottie Scheffler’s world crown. Credit for that as much goes to the latter’s stupendous form as it does to McIlroy’s baffling no-show on the greens. Although the Ulsterman has retained his second spot, that has more to do with Jon Rahm’s switch. 

The Northern Irishman started off with a runner-up finish and a title in Dubai. However, on the state side, it has fallen by the wayside. One look at the OWGR table evinces the startling gap between McIlroy and Scheffler.

Scottie Scheffler edged Rory McIlroy by miles

McIlroy has fallen so far behind the reigning World No. 1 that even a triumph at TPC Sawgrass wouldn’t float him ahead of Scheffler. The 144-man field has been given a rating of 456.418. The winner is set to earn 80 points. McIlroy (348.07107) is more than 100 points behind Scheffler at the top (467.84571). In fact, Jon Rahm, despite not earning any world ranking points since December, has only a 68-point gap with the Ulsterman.

At the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Scheffler waltzed to a five-shot victory. Whereas, McIlroy, despite his fiery back-nine show on the moving day, failed to capitalize on the momentum in the final round. McIlroy tied for the 21st spot, earning 3.228 points, while Scheffler’s second red cardigan earned him 67.973 world ranking points. 

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So, McIlroy’s OWGR ascendance has to wait a bit. At least, until the Northern Irish Pro finds his mojo back. Or, till the golf world finds an answer to Scheffler’s intimidating show on the greens, With that being said, what are the odds that either of them can claim the winner’s paycheck?

Both Scheffler and McIlroy have odds stacked against them 

McIlroy has more experience at Sawgrass than Scheffler. From his 14 outings at Ponte Vedra, the Ulsterman has five top 25s, four top 10s, and a victory that came in 2019. Last year, Rory McIlroy missed the cut after shooting 73 and 76 in the first two rounds. The four-time Major winner ranks first in SG: Off the Tee this season. But McIlroy is 152nd in SG: Approach to Green and 129th in SG: Putting. His greens in regulation percentage (67.41%) also ranks him at 129. 

On the other hand, for Scheffler, this will be his fifth Players Championship outing. Interestingly, Scheffler’s victory last year was also his lone Top 25 finish at TPC Sawgrass. The current world no. 1 ranks first in SG: Total: 7th in SG: Off the tee, 2nd in SG: Approach to green. Putting, which was until last week his only hubris, ranks him at 107th (-0.075). 

Let’s not forget, no one has ever defended the title at the Players. Jack Nicklaus tied for the fifth spot after his 1976 triumph. Scheffler is well aware. “It really is a Pete Dye [course], just kind of genius design, where you have to hit all different kinds of shots, and it tests you in a lot of different ways. That’s why I think it’s one of the best places we play on Tour, just because it really doesn’t suit one type of player.”

Interestingly, Rory McIlroy doesn’t have the odds either. Brentley Romine at Golf Channel noted that, except for Tiger Woods, the past 18 champions at Sawgrass were first-time winners. Furthermore, only Steve Elkington has won at the Stadium course twice in less than a decade—six years apart. The rest, including Woods and Nicklaus, had to wait a decade.

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