If the holidays slowed College Basketball down, Week 9 hit the accelerator. From uneasy wins by Duke and Houston to stunning upsets across the country, the new year opened with chaos and clarity in equal measure. With conference races taking shape, here’s a prediction for how the AP Top 25 could line up after Week 9.

1. Arizona (13–0) — KenPom #2

With comfortable wins over Utah (97-78) and South Dakota State (99-71), Arizona continue their undefeated run.

It feels like Arizona just can’t put a foot wrong, as they are the second-best defense, according to KenPom, which compensates for their comparatively lackluster offense, ranked No. 9, while scoring 90.8 points per game. It’s clear at this point that the voters prefer Arizona over Michigan, which ranks higher on KenPom and in the NET ranking. 

2. Michigan (13–0) — KenPom #1

Michigan is arguably the best team in college basketball currently. They just blew apart USC, led by a career night from Morez Johnson Jr., to a 96-66 victory. The thing about them is that anybody can get you on a given day. It could be Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez, Trey Mckenney, or even Aday Mara.

The last time they won by less than 25 points was back in November in the third game of the season against TCU. That’s the level of domination we are talking about. If luck falls their way, the voters could finally bump them up to No.1, unbelievably for the first time this season. 

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3. Iowa State (14–0) — KenPom #3

Ever since Iowa State dethroned Purdue, they have been forced to be taken seriously as a contender. The unbeaten side continued its momentum with a couple of routine wins over Houston Christian (89-51) and West Virginia (80-59). Against West Virginia, it was Joshua Jefferson snagging the headlines with the 9th triple-double in program history, posting 10 points, 10 assists, and 10 rebounds. 

4. UConn (13–1) — KenPom #6

Another one of those near-perfect teams, UConn, hasn’t missed a step since that Arizona loss. In a collective display, UConn set a new season-high with 13 3-pointers made. Solo Ball had 17 points on 6-of-10 shooting, Reed had a great first half with 8 points and finished with 10 points on 4-of-7 shooting, and Alex Karaban finished the game with 19 points on 7-of-13 shooting. 

They have added some distance between their Big East compatriots. “This team is different,” Rothstein said. “This team has incredible balance, this team has incredible depth, and I think it’s really going to be difficult for opponents to now try and game plan for UConn in the Big East.”

5. Purdue (13–1) — KenPom #4

Purdue learned how to bounce back after a poor first half. Although Purdue owned a 45-38 advantage at halftime, Wisconsin had won the rebounding battle 20-13 and shot at a better clip from the floor. However, they continued their dominating nature in the second half as the Boilers also outshot the Badgers 46% to 42% from the floor and strolled to an 89-73 win. 

6. Duke (13–1) — KenPom #9 

These leaks have been long coming for Duke. After losing to Texas Tech, they went past Georgia Tech 85-79. Duke struggled to settle into play and spent the first half playing catch-up to the Yellow Jackets. While they recovered and got over the line, the cracks were visible. The same was true against Florida State, winning by just 4 points, 91-87. The performances have been noticeably lax in the first half, and only figuring things out once under pressure. 

7. BYU (13–1) — KenPom #10 (+3)

BYU is on a run of their lives, led by AJ Dybantsa. They opened Big 12 play with a road win at Kansas State, 83-73. The win gave BYU its 10th consecutive victory, the longest win streak since 2011.

Dybantsa has now scored 7 consecutive 20+ point games and is showing why he is rated so highly. To stop BYU’s ascent team will need to figure out an antidote to the Dybantsa problem. 

8. Gonzaga (15–1) — KenPom #7 (-1)

Gonzaga survived a spirited challenge from the Seattle Redhawks, who took them to overtime. Few’s side trailed by 8 at the half and struggled to roar back into the game. However, they continued to inch towards Seattle and managed to take the game to overtime. That’s not a tone you like to have when a top 10 team is going against a side that hasn’t beaten a top 25 side since rejoining the Division I ranks over a decade ago. 

9. Houston (13–1) — KenPom #11 (-1)

Houston did not have it easy against Cincinnati, squeaking in a 67-60 win. The contest was knotted at 60 apiece with 3:52 remaining, but Milos Uzan’s clutch three and a put-back from Joseph Tugler put some daylight between the two. A point of concern for Kelvin Samson would be that Cincinnati outshot them, shooting 43% (21-of-49) against Houston’s 41% (26-of-63).

10. Vanderbilt (14–0) — KenPom #5 (+1)

There is only one problem in Vanderbilt’s undefeated record: they haven’t yet beaten a top-25 team. Even their latest win came against the South Carolina Gamecocks, who are unranked and outside the top 50 on Ken Pom. Tyler Tanner got 19 points and 14 assists in Vanderbilt’s 83-71 win at South Carolina. The Commodores are 14-0 with 12 double-digit victories, and the one thing helping them is that their analytical numbers are great. 

11. Nebraska (14–0) — KenPom #22 (+2)

Fred Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers are now 14-0 on the season and 3-0 in the Big Ten after beating Michigan State 58-56. “They’re undeniably one of the sport’s best stories and up to No. 9 in Saturday morning’s updated CBS Sports Top 25 And 1 daily college basketball rankings,” wrote Gary Parrish of CBS Sports. Hoiberg’s side put up a defensive clinic against Tom Izzo’s Michigan State, letting them score just 56 points, which is way below their season average of 79. The Cornhuskers are now riding on momentum and could move up further if they manage to beat Ohio State next. 

12. Michigan State (12–2) — KenPom #15

Michigan State did not look comfortable against Nebraska, and Tom Izzo admitted as much. While the defense held up, the Spartans were sloppy with the ball, traveling, firing passes out of bounds, and stepping on the sideline. Nebraska’s pressure clearly disrupted their rhythm and forced mistakes.

The positive is that nothing felt structural or permanent. These are errors of focus, not ability. If MSU steadies itself and sharpens its execution, this game should serve as a lesson rather than a setback.

13. Alabama (11–3) — KenPom #13 (+1)

Alabama has been the best offense in the country in the last 10 games, according to Barttorvik. And this team, coached by Nate Oats, exposed Mark Pope’s Kentucky this past game, winning 89-74.

Remember, Kentucky was effectively 26th in the last poll and a challenge for any team. Kentucky shot just 21% from three-point range, making just four shots from deep, while Alabama made 15 of them. That proved to be the difference in the game. They also drubbed Yale 102-74 and are fast approaching the top 10 spot. 

14. Texas Tech (11–3) — KenPom #20 (+1)

The Duke win was a landmark moment for this Texas Tech side. Since that game, they have been spotless in the last two against Winthrop and Oklahoma State. Both blowouts, Texas Tech crossed the 100-point mark against Oklahoma State while beating Winthrop 87-57. That was courtesy of an extraordinary three-point display.

Texas Tech tied a program record by hitting 17 3-pointers in the win over OSU on their best offensive night of the season so far. 

15. North Carolina (13–2) — KenPom #27 (-2)

For the first time in over a month, the North Carolina Tar Heels left a game with a defeat, as the SMU Mustangs pulled away with a 97-83 victory. The Tar Heels, including Caleb Wilson, just couldn’t find a way to shut down senior guard Boopie Miller.

Miller finished with 27 points while matching a season-high with 12 assists for the double-double. It was an off game for the duo of Henry Veesar and Wilson, but they will look to quickly move on from this loss. 

16. Arkansas (11–3) — KenPom #23 (+3)

While inconsistencies still plague John Calipari, they got over a major hurdle this past week. They had just their second win over a ranked opponent, beating Tennessee 86-75.

Darius Acuff Jr. scored a career-high 29 points, including two key 3-pointers inside the final four minutes, along with 4 assists. They also had a regulation 103-74 blowout win over James Madison, which bumps them up in the rankings. 

17. Illinois (11–3) — KenPom #8 (+3)

Illinois had a couple of regulation wins over Southern and Penn State, but the landmark win came earlier. After the setback against Nebraska, the Illini flipped the page, thrashing Missouri 91-48 before obliterating Southern 90-55. Those were their two best defensive shows so far this season. This team is finally improving its defense and moving steadily towards being a top 10 team. 

18. Tennessee (10–4) — KenPom #16 (+1)

Tennessee basketball opened up SEC play on the road in Bud Walton Arena in front of a sold-out Arkansas crowd and could not keep up. The Vols played a stellar first half, but Arkansas improved heavily in the second.

The Razorbacks scored 11 straight points to break the game open with six minutes left, and the Vols lost 86-75. They had a 105-point display against South Carolina State before this game, which prevents them from falling. 

19. Georgia (13–1) — KenPom #26 (+4)

Despite falling off the top of the AP Poll, Auburn is still a team to beat, and Georgia managed to sneak through. In a tight, back-and-forth matchup in front of a sell-out Stegeman Coliseum crowd, Georgia defeated Auburn 104-100 in overtime to start 1-0 in conference play. They continued their impressive offensive display, with their 99.4 points per game as a team still ranking first among all teams. 

20. Virginia (12–2) — KenPom #19 (+1)

The Virginia Cavaliers were able to bounce back following their disappointing triple overtime loss to Virginia Tech, this time clinching a 76-61 victory over NC State. 

They were even more dominant than the scoreline suggests, as Virginia led 40-20 at halftime. Virginia limited NC State to just 36% from the field. Even that loss against Virginia Tech was touch-and-go as the Cavaliers just failed to pull ahead in regular and the first two overtime periods and ran out of gas in the third as they conceded 17 points and lost 95-85.  

21. Kansas (10–4) — KenPom #18 (-4)

Kansas walked into Orlando with momentum and optimism. Darryn Peterson’s return after a month only added to it. The projected NBA Draft pick delivered right away, looking sharp and aggressive in his first game back, giving the Jayhawks every reason to believe they had control.

UCF flipped the script. The Knights earned an 81-75 upset, their 11th straight win, as Kansas faded late. Peterson finished with 26 points and six rebounds, but injury limitations slowed him in the second half, and the Jayhawks could not keep pace.

22. Iowa (12–2) — KenPom #17 (+3)

The Hawkeyes and Ben McCollum made a statement against UCLA and started the year with a breathtaking 74-61 win. Point guard Bennet Stirtz was the star of the night, scoring 27 points on 8-for-10 shooting from the floor, to go along with five assists, four rebounds, and two steals. That included a logo-three to ice out the win in the final seconds. It was a huge win over a team that was ranked No.12 in the preseason poll and was No.25 as early as week 6.  

23. Louisville (11–3) — KenPom #12 (-7)

Stanford hadn’t beaten a ranked team in the Kyle Smith era, that is to say the entire last season and a half of this one, until Louisville came to town. Without Mikel Brown Jr. for the fourth consecutive game, Pat Kelsey’s men could not get things done, losing 80-76 at Maples Pavilion.

The Cardinals fell to 1-3 in true road games this season, with the lone win coming against Cal in their Atlantic Coast Conference opener this past Tuesday. Louisville has not won its first two games in conference play since the 2021-22 season. Despite the Cal win, the loss against Stanford will likely see them fall in the standings. 

24. USC (12–2) — KenPom #40 (-1)

USC was nowhere near No.2 Michigan. The best defense in the country stifled Eric Musselman’s offense, and their offense was enough to blow them out.

With a 96-66 loss, there is no way to go other than down in the AP Poll. It was an embarrassing show as USC never got the lead. And despite Michigan shooting 20% from three, they dominated every aspect of the game. However, since it was against one of the top 2 teams in the country, they won’t likely fall out of the Top 25, yet.  

25. Kentucky Wildcats (12–2) — KenPom #25 (+1)

The re-entrant in the AP Poll top 25 conversation, Kentucky Wildcats. The team outside of the Top 25 receiving the most votes in Week 8 was Kentucky with 78. While the Wildcats lost to No.11 Alabama this week. They did get a 99-85 win over Bellarmine a day after the last poll was released. A tough loss to a top-ranked team, combined with a win, should be enough to get them back.

In addition, KenPom rates Mark Pope’s side highly, which is another plus. Florida, after a disappointing loss to the Missouri Tigers, should drop out of the top 25.