The best college basketball game of the year might be decided by a coin flip, at least according to ESPN’s analytics. No. 3 Duke takes on No. 1 Michigan on Saturday in a highly anticipated match.

The computer models are pretty much splitting the difference on what could be the best college basketball game of the year. Both teams are on hot streaks and are fighting for an NCAA Tournament seed as they head to Washington, D.C.’s Capital One Arena. Anyone who wants to guess what will happen in March Madness has to watch the 6:30 pm ET tip-off.

ESPN Insights showed how close the prediction is: “According to ESPN Analytics, Duke and Michigan could be a toss-up, with Duke having a 51% chance to win the game 👀 Duke is 6-0 against Michigan in neutral-site games, including three games played in the NCAA Tournament.”

When you look at the credentials of both teams, the 51-49 split makes perfect sense. Duke is 24-2 (13-1 ACC) after winning three in a row by an average of 22 points, the last one being a 101-64 win over Syracuse. Michigan is 25-1 and has won 11 games in a row, the most recent being a 91-80 win over No. 7 Purdue at Mackey Arena on Tuesday. Both teams are ranked 1st and 2nd in the NCAA NET Rankings and KenPom, and they both have 10 Quadrant 1 wins, which is the most in the country, along with Arizona.

History is on Duke’s side, even though Michigan is playing better right now. The Blue Devils have won 22 of the 30 games they’ve played against the Wolverines, and they’ve won all six of their games on neutral courts, including three in the NCAA Tournament. Since Michigan beat Duke 81-73 in Ann Arbor during the 2008-09 season, they haven’t been able to beat them again.

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This game means a lot more than just Saturday night. The winner will probably take the top spot in Monday’s AP Poll and take the lead in the race for the top overall NCAA Tournament seed. Duke and Michigan are likely to be on opposite sides of the bracket, which could mean that this is a preview of the national championship if both teams make it to Indianapolis in April.

Michigan coach Dusty May lands on Naismith Award watch list

When you think about what Dusty May has done in just one year at Michigan, Saturday’s game means even more. The Atlanta Tipoff Club put him on the Naismith Coach of the Year Watch List on Friday because they saw how he turned a program that went 8-24 two years ago into a contender for the national title. That’s not a rebuild; that’s a full resurrection.

There were only 15 coaches who made the cut across the country. May’s name is right up there with legends like Bill Self from Kansas and Dan Hurley from UConn. Fans of Michigan have seen this change in culture happen in real time, and now the rest of college basketball has to admit it too.

May came from Florida Atlantic and won the Big Ten Tournament and made it to the Sweet 16 in his first year. Now Michigan is 25-1 and has been in the AP Top 10 all year, beating teams in ways that no one thought possible.

The numbers are completely crazy. Michigan is scoring more than 90 points per game, which is a school record. They were the first team in the AP Poll to beat three ranked teams in a row by more than 30 points. Their KenPom rating of +39.43 is the second highest ever, behind only the Duke team from 1999. May has another chance to show that this isn’t a fluke in the Duke game on Saturday.