The same Oklahoma program that once ended Josh Heupel’s coaching tenure might now indirectly trigger his downfall at Tennessee. In 2014, Bob Stoops, Heupel’s own college coach when he was a Heisman-finalist quarterback for the Sooners, dismissed him as Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator. More than a decade later, it was Oklahoma again, this time as an SEC rival, handing Heupel a loss that may define his fate in Knoxville.

The program’s third loss of the season, a 33-27 rout to the Oklahoma Sooners, has reportedly pushed athletic director Danny White and the Tennessee brass to issue a 30-day ultimatum. “Rumors in the Tennessee AD office this morning of a potential Josh Heupel buyout,” the X post read. “Depending factors on the outcome of the Florida & Vandy games. The only name being thrown out there is Lane Kiffin as a replacement. Kiffin has referenced many times how much he misses Tennessee.”

This comes hours after former Tennessee quarterback Jonathan Crompton also openly criticized Heupel.

“What I’m saying is I do think Heupel is our James Franklin,” Crampton said on the Big Orange podcast. “He’s going to win us nine to ten ball games a year. The odd year, we’ll get eleven. And that’s about our ceiling.”

Well, he’s not wrong, and the latest game proves exactly why.

The Volunteers’ most glaring error came with 8:11 left. Down 26-17, and facing a fourth-and-1 at Oklahoma’s 37-yard line, Heupel called his first timeout of the half just before the play as his team was “behind in the sequence of it”. When they returned, the Vols decided to go with heavy formation comprising three tight ends and one running back.

However, the team didn’t run the ball, and Joey Aguilar threw to a wide open Van Dorselaer on the play-action pass. However, the latter’s head wasn’t even turned toward the QB way, with the result being the football bouncing off the facemask. Heupel, standing, right in front at the time, was visibly dumb founded, and kept looking at his play sheet.

“They’ve been good in those situations,” HC Heupel said after the loss. “And had something that we thought, as multiple as they are in that situation, that would give us a chance. (Van Dorselaer) gets hung up a little bit coming around the edge. I haven’t watched the video of that specific play yet. Whether we got squeezed a little bit and him getting his head around and we’ve just got to make the play. I can’t tell you right now, but we had a chance there.”

Now, this might convince many that Heupel is indeed on the hot seat. However, if you ask analyst Josh Pate, that possibility isn’t even close.

“On the ladder of criticism in coaching, let’s just say we have 10 rungs and the 10th rung is ‘Fire this guy’,” Pate said. “There’s a long way to go between ‘This guy needs to make some changes’ versus ‘We need to fire this guy.’ And sometimes we just shave off all the rungs 4-9. It’s just either you’re on rung three or rung 10. That’s kind of the way it was presented to me last night.”

But just for argument’s sake, how realistic is the fifth-year coach, who led the Vols to a CFB Playoff last season while never finishing a season below the .500 mark, being replaced by Lane Kiffin?

Well, it’s as complicated as it is intriguing. Kiffin remains one of the most polarizing figures in Tennessee history, the coach who reignited the fanbase and then left it heartbroken. Yet, he has since evolved into one of the most respected offensive minds in the nation. In fact, the Ole Miss head coach openly admits how special Tennessee was to him, so maybe a homecoming after all these years doesn’t sound too bad.

Another thing to consider is that dismissing Heupel will be a massive financial risk. His current contract, worth $9 million annually through 2030, includes a buyout clause that guarantees 100% of the remaining salary if he’s fired without cause this year, about $37.5 million. Add in the price tag for a potential Kiffin hire, who would command similar money and whose buyout at Ole Miss sits around $36 million, and Tennessee could be facing an all-in investment north of $75 million.

Yet, as one Tennessee insider put it, “When the big boosters decide the window’s closing, they find the money. They always do.” Major programs like Texas A&M, LSU, and Penn State have eaten enormous buyouts to chase the next step. Tennessee could be next.

Rumors in the Tennessee AD office this morning of a potential Josh Heupel buyout. Depending factors on the outcome of the Florida & Vandy games.

The only name being thrown out there is Lane Kiffin as a replacement. Kiffin has referenced many times how much he misses Tennessee.

— Richard G. West (@RGW_News) November 2, 2025

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For now, Heupel has roughly a month to turn things around. The window effectively lasts until the end of the regular season. The remaining schedule has New Mexico State on November 15, Florida on November 23, and finally, the season finale on November 30 against No. 9 Vanderbilt, an in-state showdown that could either serve as a defining statement win or the breaking point for Heupel’s tenure.

Tennessee and Josh Heupel’s Path to Redemption

Tennessee’s path forward is difficult. The Volunteers must find a way to win three consecutive games. Each game comes with its own set of problems. First is New Mexico State on November 15th at Neyland Stadium. An easy matchup on paper, but it could turn out to be deceptive. While the New Mexico State Aggies enter at 3-5 with limited offensive firepower, their defense has proven surprisingly strong. They allow only 25.38 points per game. New Mexico State’s rushing defense is deceptively good. All in all, Joey Aguilar and co. will have to be careful with their possession.

The challenge will get harder when Tennessee travels to Gainesville to face the Florida squad, reeling from the firing of Billy Napier. The Gators have installed interim head coach Billy Gonzales, who is attempting to stabilize a program shaken from a lousy start and major changes. Florida’s sluggish offense, which lacked any solid identity or cohesion under Napier, has been slowly transformed into a more stable, organized unit. That was evident from their recent outing against Georgia.

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Finally, the Commodores of Vanderbilt present perhaps the most difficult test. Recently hammered by the Texas Longhorns, Vanderbilt’s defense exposed critical weaknesses. Yet Vanderbilt’s offensive scheme is built around capitalizing on early leads. More troubling for the Volunteers is the Commodores’ vulnerability against elite receiving talent, a category where Tennessee is good. If Heupel’s offense can establish early dominance and force Vanderbilt into catch-up mode, Tennessee may finally break the cycle of second-half collapses that has defined its season. However, an early mistake could trigger another defensive collapse. Heupel and his boys would like to end the season on a high note with a win over #9 Vanderbilt.