The 2026 NFL Draft odds dropped this week. And there’s a new name sitting atop the board that should make Jets fans pay attention. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has surged to the favorite position at 2/1 odds to be the first overall pick, overtaking Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and a handful of other prospects who’ve been in the conversation. 

Ty Simpson’s having a season that gets scouts drooling. Through eight games, he’s thrown for 2,184 yards with 20 touchdowns against just one interception, posting a ridiculous 162.63 passer rating while leading Alabama to 34.4 points per game. He’s second in the SEC in passing yards behind Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar. And he just climbed to the top of the On3 Sports Heisman rankings after weeks of calm. 

ESPN’s Football Power Index is projecting New York to have the third pick in next year’s draft after their brutal 1-7 start, right behind Tennessee and New Orleans. But it won’t be a far-fetched assumption that the Jets can get that No.1 pick.  If the Jets stay in the top three, Ty Simpson could very well be wearing green and white come April 2026, which would spell the end of the Justin Fields experiment in New York.​

Now contrast that with what former OSU QB Justin Fields has been going through in New York, and the difference is stark. Fields arrived in New York this offseason with the Jets hoping he’d be the answer at quarterback after the Aaron Rodgers disaster. But 2025 has been an absolute nightmare. The Jets started 0-7, looking completely lost on offense while Fields took heat from every direction. Owner Woody Johnson openly criticized his performance during the NFL’s midseason owners meetings. 

The downward spiral for Fields really started when he left Ohio State after the 2020 season as the 11th overall pick to the Bears, and it’s never really recovered. At Ohio State, Fields looked like a generational talent. But his NFL career has been defined by inconsistency, poor offensive systems, and an inability to elevate the teams around him.  

Things got so bad that Fields admitted he spent time crying on his closet floor during the week before the Bengals game. “I’m about to get pretty vulnerable here. This week, I found myself in my closet, crying on the floor,” Fields told reporters after finally getting that first win in Week 8. He talked about how his faith was being tested and how he was praying “repeatedly… just for one win.”

The Jets eventually beat Cincinnati 39-38 in a wild comeback, with Fields orchestrating two late touchdown drives, and he was nearly in tears on the field afterward. That first win came in Week 8 of the season. Think about that for a second.

Fields is 26 years old now, and this is likely his last chance to prove he’s a franchise quarterback. If the Jets finish with a top-three pick and Ty Simpson is sitting there on the board. And it’s hard to imagine New York passing on him, especially after watching Fields struggle through another lost season.​ Fields will likely be the $58 million quarterback looking for yet another fresh start after this year.

The betting markets are making it pretty clear where this is headed. Ty Simpson’s 2/1 odds make him the overwhelming favorite. He is well ahead of Fernando Mendoza at 11/4 and LaNorris Sellers at 11/2. Arch Manning, who many thought would be the prohibitive favorite, is sitting way down at 50/1 odds, while Carson Beck has fallen all the way to 66/1. 

Championships over hardware

Simpson’s having the season that normally gets quarterbacks dreaming about their Heisman acceptance speech in New York. But he’s making it pretty clear where his priorities actually lie. 

When Jim Rome asked him about potentially flying to NYC on December 13 for the Heisman ceremony, Simpson kept things refreshingly grounded. “Extremely blessed, right, Like, it’d be a great opportunity. It’s super exciting,” Simpson said.

“I wouldn’t be here if it wouldn’t for my teammates and everything they do. I think back to the reason why I came to Alabama and the championship hallway that we have, there’s only four Heisman Trophies, but there’s six National Championships in there. And so that’s what I really care about, just trying to win, trying to be the best guy I can be and make sure that I can do everything for my teammates that gets us win and gets to what we dream about for a long time and what our ultimate goal is.”

That’s the answer that sounds cliché until you realize Simpson sat behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe for three years without transferring in the NIL era. He waited for his turn while everyone else was jumping ship for immediate playing time.​

As of Thursday, Simpson’s tied with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza as co-favorites at the top of the Heisman odds, with Ohio State’s Julian Sayin close behind. Alabama’s got a bye week right now before facing LSU. And Simpson’s already made it clear that if he has to choose between holding up the Heisman or cutting down championship nets, he’s taking the nets every single time.​