Arch Manning has passed Steve Sarkisian’s quality test. Even though the Texas Longhorns head coach faced a double-edged sword with both Manning and Quinn Ewers in his camp in 2024, this time, he is all in praise of Manning. “It’s about [him] wanting to be a really good player and wanting to be the quarterback at Texas to bring another national championship back here…We have a quarterback in Arch.”

Sarkisian further added, “We have a great leader who does things that right way … We’ll see what happens. Expectations are high in Austin.” Expectations and hype are the two sides of the same coin. With high expectations, it raises the hype meter. And maybe Manning did not have to earn it. Belonging to the Manning family, he was born with it, and now, Sarkisian’s quarterback has already gained the NFL limelight.

Arch Manning is expected to land with the New Orleans as the No.1 pick in the upcoming draft, to revive his grandfather, Archie Manning’s team, where he played so bravely in the 1970s. However, Manning’s NFL chapter can wait as of now. The question looms: Can he live up to the hype in his last lap in college? On the June 20th episode of The Next Round podcast, host Lance Taylor shared his thoughts on how the ceiling his high for the 21-year-old. “We were previewing Michigan in our 40 and 40 yesterday, and one of the things I brought up Bryce Underwood with this $10 million price tag, whatever the number it was, it was extraordinary. But I think there would be so much more talk about Underwood and so much more pressure if it wasn’t for Arch Manning.”

Taylor continued, “Arch Manning is at the level I think it surpasses Tim Tebow coming back for his sophomore year. I think it is right up there with LeBron James coming into the NBA, I think that’s the type of hype we’re getting right now.” Previously, draft analyst Jacob Morley said, “If Arch Manning started all season for Texas, Golden would not have been available at 23.” In short, Ewers’ path to the NFL was inevitable—but if Manning had taken full control, Matthew Golden’s rise might’ve taken a different route. His standout performance came in Week 5 against Mississippi State, when the 21-year-old threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns. Across 10 games, he racked up 939 yards and nine TDs. Like they say, the best of the lot often have their share of fans and haters.

Manning is no exception. As Taylor noted, “Talking to Chip and Zay in Austin yesterday, I told him, ‘Here’s what’s going to happen October 11th. You’re going to have an undefeated rolling into Dallas. It’s going to be Oklahoma, and you’re going to have a three and two.’ And Chip was like ‘Are you dr—k? Are you on d—s?’” The week before the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma is historically a trap game warning for Sarkisian’s squad. They have to travel to Florida a week before facing a revamped Brent Venables’ squad at the State Fair. Oklahoma has moved past Jackson Arnold, who got sacked 34 times in 2024. They are now counting on John Mateer. But, where does Manning stand in this debate?

A reality check for Steve Sarkisian on how Arch Manning is not a lock for greatness yet

Currently, Arch Manning is riding high with +700 odds, while Mateer is far behind at +2500. However, Mateer is still more proven than Manning, who just started two of nine games last year. Remember what Sooners insider George Stoia said about the Mateer vs Manning debate? “Do you want somebody who’s a little bit more proven. Then you take John Mateer. I think his pairing with [Ben] Arbuckle makes a lot of sense. Or do you want the guy with tremendous upside, a guy that you know could be a number one pick in the NFL draft next year, obviously, the lineage that Arch Manning has. But could also his floor might be lower? I think for Oklahoma in such a pivotal season, you take the guy whose floor is maybe a little bit higher, and that’s John Mateer. So I’m gonna lean Mateer.”

This was doubled down by the All-SEC WR and now ESPN analyst Chris Doering on The Next Round podcast. “I got into a little bit of trouble with some Texas fans the other day on the SEC Network. We did a ‘Start, Bench and Cut’ segment with DJ Lagway Garrett Nussmeier and Arch Manning and I had Arch is the guy we’re cutting and it’s not because I don’t think he’s going to be great it’s because we’ve seen much more proven success on the field from DJ Lagway and Garrett Nussmeier.”

Well, in the 2025 season, we have seen Arch Manning excel against weaker opponents; his ability to consistently perform under pressure against top-level defenses remains unproven. On the other hand, DJ Lagway’s performance saved Billy Napier from losing his head coaching role in Florida. The quarterback came up with a blockbuster feat at the Swamp on September 7. Taking up Graham Mertz’s place, who suffered from an upper-body injury during his fight against Miami, Lagway stunned the crowd, reaching a career milestone as early as the third quarter, and racked up 31 yards. Then came his second game against Samford, where he scored 456 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Talking about the LSU quarterback, Garrett Nussmeier came up with 337 yards and 3 touchdowns against Ole Miss and 308 yards and 2 touchdowns against USC. The Arch effect hasn’t hit everyone yet. But will his 2025 play be the game-changer?